Tuesday, June 21, 2011

6/21/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:03 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

...STRONG EARLY SUMMER STORM LINGERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday Afternoon for the following counties in Northeast Minnesota:  Cook and Lake.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Grand Marais MN...Lutsen MN...Forest Center MN...Isabella MN...Silver Bay MN...Finland MN...and Two Harbors MN.

Impacts:  Rain and a few thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible.  Due to the steep terrain in the Arrowhead there is a threat for flash flooding.

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.  You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.

*WIND ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Wind Advisory is in effect until 10 PM CDT Tonight for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Southern Lake...Southern St. Louis...and Carlton.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Two Harbors MN...Duluth MN...Cloquet MN...Moose Lake MN...Superior WI...and Solon Springs WI.

Impacts:  Strong northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph through the Evening.  Stronger wind gusts are possible in the Park Point area.

These strong winds may make driving difficult especially for high profile vehicles.

This wind advisory means that winds of 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts are expected.  Winds this strong can make driving difficult especially for high profile vehicles.  Use extra caution.

Weather Tidbits:

*410 severe weather reports/46 tornado reports across the U.S.on Monday, June 20th, 2011 per SPC.
*2.00" of rain fell in 12 minutes Today, 2 miles south of Hasty, MN.
*Tornado reported at Coon Rapids, MN (Anoka county) at 3:32 PM CDT Today.

Local storm reports from Tuesday, June 21st, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*7:36 AM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  41 mph.  2 miles south of Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)

*8:13 AM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  54 mph.  5 miles southeast of Duluth, MN.  Measured at Sky Harbor Airport.

*10:32 AM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  40 mph.  4 miles west-northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)

*11:55 AM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45 mph.  5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  Measured at the Duluth International Airport.

*1:54 PM CDT 6/21/11:  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  45 mph.  Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)

Weather History:

On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 30 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Unseasonably cold temperatures near Lake Superior thru Wednesday
-Waves of rain and gusty winds into Wednesday Night
-A few thunderstorms Tonight and Wednesday
-Showery weather for Thursday
-Friday and most of the weekend look drier with near average temperatures
-Possible heat wave by the middle of next week into early July?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota

Today's Weather:

994mb low was centered near Tracy, Minnesota (Southwest part of the state) late This Afternoon.  Bands of rain, heavy at times have been lifting north across our area Today with scattered thunderstorms also occurring at times in Northwest Wisconsin to the Twin Ports and Eastern Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were in the 40s at the head of Lake Superior with a few 70s around the Hayward Lakes area with 50s and lower 60s common elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the east or northeast at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25 to 55 mph near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Intense 500mb low was centered near the Northwest portion of Iowa late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  70 knot upper level jet streak was located in Eastern Missouri and Western Illinois This Afternoon or on the southeast side of the surface and upper level low per RUC model analysis.  This system is trapped underneath an upper level ridge to our northwest, thus expect this system to move very slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tonight:

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will remain nearly stationary in Southwest Minnesota/Northwest Iowa.  Abundant moisture with PWS approaching 1.50" will be in place across our area and that combined with a 30-60 knot E-SE 850mb jet will lead to waves of rain for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Locally heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms are also possible, but severe weather is not expected in this area.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with east or northeast winds at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-55 mph near Lake Superior.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will move very slowly toward the E-NE during this period.  The low should reach Southwestern Wisconsin by Wednesday Night.  Occasional rain will continue in our area with a few thunderstorms possible on Wednesday.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with a few 60s possible around the Hayward Lakes area.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the east or northeast at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

Note:  Total rainfall amounts by early Thursday should be in the 0.50-1.50" range across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized higher amounts of 2-3" possible.

Note:  Gales will continue thru Wednesday Night for the Near Shore and open waters of the Western half of Lake Superior.  E-NE gales to 40 knots with maximum wave heights to 11 feet are possible during this event.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will reach Eastcentral Wisconsin Thursday Morning and will move farther off to the E-NE by Friday.  Some showers will continue in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday, then mainly dry weather is expected by Friday and Saturday.  High temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees on Thursday with 60s to lower 70s expected for Friday.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for Thursday Night and Friday Night.

Temperatures this weekend into early next week should be fairly close to average, but there are some trends showing up per GFS and EUROPEAN computer models for a period of very warm temperatures for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest which would start sometime the middle or end of next week, possibly carrying over into the 4th of July. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"WIND ADVISORY"
Expiration time:  10 PM CDT Tonight.

"GALE WARNING" for the Twin Ports Harbor.
Expiration time:  1 AM CDT Thursday.

.Tonight...  Windy.  Occasional rain with isolated thunderstorms.  Areas of drizzle and fog.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 55 mph especially This Evening.  Chance of rain 80%.

.Wednesday...  Breezy with occasional rain.  Areas of drizzle and fog.  High 50 to 55.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional rain.  Overcast.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday NIght...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  73 degrees
Low:  50 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim