Monday, June 20, 2011

6/20/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:35 PM CDT, Monday, June 20th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 1995:  A record high temperature of 88 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 31 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Strong early Summer storm still taking aim at the Northland
-Rain overspreads the area Tuesday-Tuesday Night
-Locally heavy rainfall still possible with some flooding Tuesday-Wednesday
-Strong winds developing near Lake Superior, gales possible Tuesday-Wednesday
-Temperatures start to moderate closer to average levels by the weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure of 992mb was centered along the Northern Kansas-Southern Nebraska state line with a warm front connected to this low located in Northern Missouri.  High pressure of 1018mb was nosing south from Northern Ontario Province.  Dry air has been advecting south/west from Northern Canada Today and this resulted in the dissipation of the fog and drizzle which has been in place over the past few days.  Skies became partly to mostly sunny This Afternoon in portions of Eastcentral Minnesota to the North Shore of Lake Superior while mostly cloudy skies continued in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Today were around 70 degrees in the Brainerd and Hayward Lakes region with 50s near Lake Superior and 60s for the rest of us.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong 500mb trough/H5 low was pulling east out of the Rockies and into the Western High Plains and Central Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  An upper level trough covered Northeastern Canada with an upper level ridge to our northwest in portions of Manitoba and Western Ontario Province.  Temperatures are warming up once again to our north in Central Canada (mid 70s) with heat across the Plains and Southern U.S. (90+ degree temps) and sandwiched in between here in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin are below average temperatures.

Tonight:

Low pressure of around 990-992mb will move into Southeast-Eastern Nebraska with high pressure remaining to our north.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with a few showers possibly moving into Southern areas after 2AM Tonight.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with east winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Strong low pressure of 992-994mb will move into Western-Northcentral Iowa during this period.  Moisture will surge north into our area with PWS increasing to between 1.00-1.75".  850mb jet from the E-SE will strengthen to 40-60 knots Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night and this combined with the increase in moisture will result in the development of widespread rain for our area.  Rain threat through midday Tuesday will be confined to areas south of U.S. Highway 2.  Rain should then build north, reaching the Iron Range, North Shore region Tuesday Afternoon or early Tuesday Evening, and finally into the Arrowhead and extreme Northern Minnesota by Tuesday Evening or during the Overnight hours.  Some of the rain could be heavy at times in Southern areas and isolated thunderstorms are possible as well, but severe weather is not expected with limited amounts of instability in place.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph developing near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Strong surface low will move into Southwest Wisconsin Wednesday Morning and is forecasted to reach Eastern Wisconsin/Lake Michigan area by Thursday Morning.  Rain will continue to the west and north of this system from Wednesday into Thursday, although by Thursday the rain should become more scattered in nature.  High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s on Wednesday with 50s and lower 60s for Thursday.  Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Looks like slightly milder temperatures will move in late this week into early next week with some 70 degree high temperatures looking possible for parts of our area.

Note:  Rainfall totals by Thursday should be in the 0.50-1.50" range in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized higher amounts of 2-3" possible.

Note:  Gale Watch remains in effect Tuesday and Wednesday for the Western half of Lake Superior, this includes the open and Near Shore waters.  For the Duluth-Superior Harbor:  Winds will increase to 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots with maximum wave heights of 10 feet.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"GALE WATCH" for the Twin Ports Harbor
Timing:  Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Evening.

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Windy.  Occasional rain developing.  Overcast.  High 52 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy.  Occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.  Chance of rain 100%.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Occasional rain.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 80%.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  72 degrees
Low:  50 degrees

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    None
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim