Sunday, June 19, 2011

6/19/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:39 PM CDT, Sunday, June 19th, 2011

...POWERFUL LATE SPRING STORM MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

Rainfall report for Saturday and Sunday Morning, June 18th-19th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls, MN:  0.94"
Ashland, WI:  0.63"
Hayward, WI:  0.18"
Littlefork, MN:  0.50"
Embarrass, MN:  0.98"
Kabetogama, MN:  1.40"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.53"
Butternut, WI:  0.80"
Gurney, WI:  0.80"
Upson, WI:  0.30"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.72"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.26"
Winter, WI:  0.74"

Local storm report from Sunday, June 19th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

4:00 AM CDT 6/19/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  2 miles east of Duxbury, MN (Pine county)  Road washed out near Tamarack River Road, west of Markville.  Radar estimates around 1.00" an hour rainfall rates near the area.

Weather history:

On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Areas of dense fog and drizzle Tonight and early Monday
-Strong Colorado low starts to affect our weather Monday Evening
-Gusty winds, rain, and thunderstorms Monday Night thru Wednesday
-Flood potential this week
-Wintry weather with this same storm in parts of the Rockies
-Significant severe weather/tornado outbreak expected to our south Monday and Tuesday
-Gale potential for Lake Superior Tuesday-Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Weak surface trough which was over our area 24 hours ago has moved farther east into Central-Eastern Lake Superior Today and the rain associated with this system has finally exited the Arrowhead of Minnesota late This Afternoon.  Note:  Portions of the Northland have had a significant amount of rain since Friday, June 17th.  Danbury, WI reported 3.73" of rain with widespread 1-2" totals in Northern Wisconsin, back to the Brainerd Lakes region.  The ground is saturated especially in Northwest Wisconsin and portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and the additional rain that is forecast this week could result in significant flooding in coming days.  Visible satellite imagery shows stratus clouds pushing west-southwest across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while high level clouds were moving in from the west.  Areas of dense fog and drizzle persisted through the day near Lake Superior while areas of fog farther inland gave way to some sunshine, mainly in Western-Southern areas.  High temperatures Today ranged from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior with 60s and 70s elsewhere.  Widespread 90-105+ degree temperatures covered areas from Kansas and Missouri through the Southern and Southwest U.S.  Winds across our area were out of the east or northeast at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Impressive water vapor satellite imagery early This Evening as a very strong storm digs S-SE into the Four Corners region (SW U.S.)  90 knot jet streak was located west-south of the 500mb low in Utah per RUC model analysis.  A southwest upper level flow was occurring ahead of this storm from the Plains to Upper Midwest.  A strong temperature gradient was in place Today with early Evening 850mb temperatures ranging from +32 degrees C at Garden City, Kansas to +18 degrees C at Sioux Falls, South Dakota to +10 degrees C at International Falls, Minnesota.  This storm and whole set-up is something more common during the Winter months versus something you'd see in late June!

Tonight:

Strong low pressure of 989-992mb currently in Eastern Colorado will move into Northern Kansas-Southern Nebraska Overnight.  A warm front extending east of this low will remain well to our south Tonight and so will the showers and thunderstorms.  Areas of dense fog and drizzle will be common in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with some of the thickest fog occurring near Lake Superior once again.  Note:  Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for some parts of the area Tonight and Monday Morning.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with easterly winds at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Monday and Monday Night:

Deep low pressure of around 993mb will move slowly N-NE across Southern, Central and Eastern Nebraska with a warm front lifting slowly north into Central-Northern Iowa.  Most of Tomorrow looks dry in our area, but areas of fog and drizzle could linger into the Morning, and possibly the entire day near Lake Superior.  Showers should be on the increase from south to north Monday Evening/Overnight as a low level jet increases to 30-45 knots in the Upper Midwest.  Scattered thunderstorms could also develop Monday Night, mainly from the Brainerd Lakes area to Interstate 35 corridor and Northwestern Wisconsin.  Severe threat is low this far north as elevated CAPE remains weak, generally around 100-300 j/kg.  Heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes could occur though in any thunderstorm Monday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior with 60s to around 70 degrees elsewhere.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure of around 994mb will move slowly E-NE through the Southern half of Minnesota from Tuesday into Wednesday, this storm will finally pull of to our east-northeast by Thursday, June 23rd.  Abundant moisture will be in place north of this system with PWS of 1.25-1.75" with 850mb td's ranging from +8 to +14 degrees C.  Rain will be widespread across our area for Tuesday and Wednesday with heavy rain possible Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Scattered thunderstorms are also expected Tuesday and Tuesday Night from Eastcentral Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin with CAPE generally <500 j/kg.  The threat for severe weather remains low in our area on Tuesday, but an isolated severe storm could develop Tuesday Afternoon or Evening in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  1KM Helicity will be running very high in those areas which would support a supercell/tornado risk, but a lack of clearing/instability/warm air in those areas on Tuesday should put the kabosh on that risk.  High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior and 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Note:  Rainfall totals of 0.50-1.50" should be widespread in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday Night through Wednesday, but localized higher amounts of 2-3" are certainly possible.

Note:  Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday Afternoon thru Wednesday Evening for the open waters of the Western half of Lake Superior.  Easterly gales up to 31 knots will develop on Tuesday with gusts as high as 40 knots.  Wave heights of 13 feet are expected with a maximum wave height of 19 feet possible.  Gale watch may also be needed for the Duluth/Superior Harbor sometime between Monday Night and early Wednesday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Fog and drizzle.  Dense fog at times with near zero mile visibility.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Fog may be dense especially during the Morning.  Overcast.  High 55 to 60, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Monday Night...  Breezy with areas of fog and drizzle.  Overcast.  Periods of showers developing.  Isolated thunderstorms possible Overnight.  Low 46 to 50.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday...  Rain.  Windy.  A few thunderstorms also possible.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 50 to 55, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph.  Chance of rain 100%.

.Tuesday Night...  Rain.  Breezy.  A few thunderstorms possible during the Evening.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 100%.

.Wednesday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  Fog and drizzle possible.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday...  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  72 degrees
Low:  50 degrees

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:   None
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim