Saturday, June 18, 2011

6/18/11: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:52 PM CDT, Saturday, June 18th, 2011

*FLASH FLOOD WATCH*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Flash Flood Watch has been issued until 1 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Southern Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis.  In Wisconsin:  Douglas...Burnett...Bayfield...Washburn...Sawyer...Ashland...Iron...and Price.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Bruno MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Wrenshall MN...Cloquet MN...Cromwell MN...Duluth MN...Floodwood MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Siren WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Minong WI...Spooner WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Loretta WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Impacts:  Rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop This Evening and will continue into Sunday Morning.  Deep moisture in place will cause areas of heavy rain.  Light winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere will result in slow movement to the rain.

*Rainfall totals of 2-4" are possible by midday Sunday.  The greatest risk for potential flooding will be from Hinckley and Moose Lake eastward to Spooner, Hayward and Park Falls.

*The ground is nearly saturated in some areas of Pine, Burnett and Washburn counties from heavy rains Friday Night.  Many area streams and creeks are already running high and flooding is possible across rural areas.  In addition, flooding is also possible in cities and towns where runoff is impeded or enhanced by streets and local drainage systems.

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.

Rainfall report for Friday and Saturday Morning, June 17th-18th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.52"
International Falls, MN:  0.34"
Brainerd, MN:  0.41"
Hayward, WI:  0.39"
Bruno, MN:  1.57"
Littlefork, MN:  1.40"
Northome, MN:  0.49"
Floodwood, MN:  0.36"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.42"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.55"
Webster, WI:  1.49"
Winter, WI:  0.42"

Weather History:

On this date in 1995:  A record high temperature of 94 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Rain and a few thunderstorms Tonight
-Rain shifts slightly more to the east on Sunday
-Mainly dry weather Sunday Night and most of Monday
-Massive storm expected to impact the Northland next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Skies were mostly cloudy for the most part Today as a surface trough advances very slowly into Minnesota.  A very moist and somewhat unstable airmass covered the Upper Midwest Today with areas of showers and scattered thunderstorms developing ahead of the trough from Northern to Eastern to Southern Minnesota.  With PWS of 1.25-1.80" and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s with 850mb td's of +10 to +12 degrees C locally heavy rainfall has been occurring.  High temperatures Today were in the upper 40s and 50s near Lake Superior with lower 70s in Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin, 60s were found in the rest of our area.  Winds Today were variable or north/east in direction under 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Deep 500mb lows were in place in Quebec Province and in Western Saskatchewan Province per water vapor satellite imagery.  A disturbance was lifting NE through the Upper Midwest and was becoming negatively tilted as it bumps into an upper level ridge which covered the Great Lakes region and Central Ontario Province.  A potent system was digging S-SE through the Pacific Northwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a 130 knot upper level jet heading into Western Oregon.

Tonight and Sunday Morning:

A disturbance and surface trough will be crawling northeast out of Westcentral Minnesota.  A very moist airmass consisting of PWS from 1.25-1.75" and 850mb td's of around +12 degrees C will reside along and east of the trough.  The deep moisture in place combined with some instablity with CAPE of a few hundred j/kg will result in areas rain and scattered thunderstorms during this period.  Locally heavy rainfall will occur and some flash flooding could develop in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.  The most concentrated area of rain Tonight should fall south and east of a line from Brainerd to the Iron Range and Arrowhead of Minnesota, with Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota having the greatest chance for heavy rain and possible flooding.  The rain Tonight will be moving very slowly due to very weak winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere and this may enhance the risk for some flooding.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds Tonight will be out of the north or east under 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Sunday Afternoon:

Surface trough should reach Northern Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota and these areas will have the best chance for additional rain which may be heavy at times.  The remainder of our area should dry out Sunday Afternoon.  Partly sunny to overcast skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior and the 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The focus for next week will be on a powerful late Spring storm which will move slowly northeast out of the Central Plains.  Gusty winds...Locally heavy rainfall...and a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this storm.

Monday, June 20th:  Low pressure of 990-993mb will head into Nebraska with a strengthening warm front moving toward the Iowa/Minnesota border.  Dry weather should continue on Monday in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with areas of rain spreading north into our area by Monday Evening and Overnight.  Scattered thunderstorms are also expected by Monday Night in Southern parts of the area as elevated instability increases.  Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Tuesday, June 21st:  Strong low pressure averaging 993mb is forecast to move into Northern Iowa or Southern Minnesota.  Rain will occur north of this system with scattered thunderstorms in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s near Lake Superior with 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Low pressure will continue to move slowly northeast, likely reaching the Great Lakes region by Wednesday or Thursday, chances for rain will linger across our area for mid-week.

Note:  Areas of heavy rain could develop in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Monday Night into Tuesday Night and this may lead to some flooding.  There is also a risk for isolated strong and or severe thunderstorms Monday Evening through Tuesday, especially in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"FLASH FLOOD WATCH"
Expiration time:  1 PM CDT Sunday.

.Tonight...  Breezy with occasional rain.  A few thunderstorms with locally heavy rain also possible.  Overcast.  Patchy fog or drizzle.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Sunday...  Occasional rain especially early.  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy fog or drizzle possible.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Breezy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Monday Night...  Breezy.  Occasional rain developing.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 60%.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 51.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday...  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 60%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  72 degrees
Low:  49 degrees

Sunday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim