Friday, June 17, 2011

6/17/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:46 PM CDT, Friday, June 17th, 2011

June 17th marks the one year anniversary of Minnesota's largest tornado outbreak.

Quick facts about the 6/17/10 tornado outbreak:

*74 tornadoes were reported in 4 states.  48 of them occurred in Minnesota.
*48 tornadoes in Minnesota which was a new single day record for the state.
*16 strong to violent tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) 11 of them occurred in Minnesota.
*3 EF4 tornadoes in Minnesota, 1st since the Granite Falls, MN F4 tornado on July 25th, 2000.

Weather history:

On this date in 1995:  A record high temperature of 93 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 2000:  A record low temperature of 35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Rainy periods this weekend
-A few thunderstorms with heavy downpours Tonight thru Saturday Night
-Near to below average temperatures into next week
-Windy storm lined up the early to middle part of next week with more rain possible

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Areas of dense fog and drizzle redeveloped near Lake Superior last night and persisted through the Morning hours, the fog did burn off This Afternoon with some sunshine occurring during the mid to late Afternoon hours.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were seen elsewhere Today with an area of rain pushing E-NE across North and Eastcentral Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.  Some thunderstorms have also been occurring late Today, mainly in the Brainerd Lakes area.  Note:  The rain has certainly moved in quite a bit sooner than what the computer models were showing yesterday and This Morning.  High temperatures Today were in the 60s and 70s with 50s at the head of Lake Superior.  Winds Today were variable or from the east-southeast under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery show a strong 500mb low and upper level trough over portions of the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and adjacent areas of Southwest Canada.  Southwest H5 flow covered the Upper Midwest Today out ahead of this system with clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms erupting in portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Nebraska.  Plenty of heat covered the Southern U.S. again Today with 90-110 degree temperatures reported in those areas while the heat wave of recent days in Central-Eastern Canada begins to shrink in size with 80s confined to the Western half of Ontario and Eastern Manitoba Province Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure and an occluded front over the Northern Plains will move slowly east into the Upper Midwest.  Abundant moisture will be in place ahead of this system with PWS ranging from 1.00-1.50" and 850mb td's of +8 to +14 degrees C with dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Occasional rain will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with areas of fog possible as well.  Scattered thunderstorms are also expected, mainly south of U.S. Highway 2.  Severe thunderstorms are not expected in our area due to marginal amounts of instability, but any thunderstorm that develops could contain torrential downpours and dangerous lightning strikes.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to lower 60s with some 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure will track slowly E-NE across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains with a weakening occluded front pushing NE across Minnesota.  Occasional showers are expected across our area during this period with a few thunderstorms possible as well, mainly west and south of U.S. Highway 2.  Instabilty and warm air will be pretty limited this far north, so the threat for severe thunderstorms are very low, but locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes could occur in a few of the storms.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior and the 60s to around 70 degrees elsewhere.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds during this period will be out of the east, north, or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Some rain could linger in Northwest Wisconsin, Eastern and Northeast Minnesota on Sunday, June 19th with mainly dry weather for Northcentral Minnesota.  The entire area should be dry Sunday Night into Monday Night as system number one exits to our E-NE late this weekend while a stronger area of low pressure pulls into the Central Plains early next week.  High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Model differences continue to show up in regards to the timing and track of the storm for next week.  This system looks awfully similar to a storm you'd find during the Winter months.  The EURO, and GEM-GLOBAL models take the low on a more northerly track which would give the entire Northland a good soaking rain from Tuesday through Wednesday, possibly even into Thursday.  The last few runs of the GFS keep the system far enough to our south which would prevent any heavy rain from spreading into our area, but some lighter rainfall would still occur around mid-week.  This system will also cause some gusty easterly winds due to the pressure difference between a Hudson Bay high and the Plains low.  Wind gusts could reach 30 mph especially near Lake Superior during the early to middle part of next week.

Note:  The HPC forecasters indicate the potential for 3-5" of rain for portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin including the Twin Ports during the next 5 days, this is certainly possible if that storm next week takes a track like what the EUROPEN and GEM-GLOBAL models are showing.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Areas of drizzle and fog.  Overcast.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Occasional showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Areas of drizzle and fog.  Overcast.  High 57 to 61 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday Night...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 50 to 53 Inland and 40s near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday...  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  Breezy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  East winds could occasionally gust over 25 mph.

.Monday Night...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.  East wind could occasionally gust over 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.  East winds could occasionally gust over 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  72 degrees
Low:  49 degrees

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:05 PM CDT

Tim