Thursday, June 16, 2011

6/16/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:05 PM CDT, Thursday, June 16th, 2011

June 1st-15th, 2011 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature:  57.6 degrees/0.6 degrees below average
Precipitation total:  0.58"/1.44" below average

Rainfall report for Wednesday and Thursday Morning, June 15th-16th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.41"
Brainerd, MN:  0.69"
Hibbing, MN:  0.42"
Ashland, WI:  0.42"
Hayward, WI:  0.42"
4 miles south of Bruno, MN:  0.60"
Bruno, MN:  0.73"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.66"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.48"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.55"
Northome, MN:  0.42"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.21"
Finland, MN:  0.18"
Ashland, WI:  0.34"
Butternut, WI:  0.52"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.48"

Weather tidbits:

*0.41" rainfall total at Duluth, Minnesota on June 15th, 2011 is our heaviest 24 hour total so far this month.
*June 15th's 0.41" rainfall total was our heaviest 24 hour total at Duluth, MN since May 30th when 0.54" of rain fell.

30 day outlook for July 2011.  Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, June 16th, 2011.

For Duluth, Minnesota:

Equal chances for above average, below average, or average temperatures and precipitation.

90 day outlook for July-September 2011.  Issued by the CPC on Thursday, June 16th, 2011.

For Duluth, Minnesota:

Equal chances for above average, below average, or average temperatures and precipitation.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Easterly wind could persist into most of next week
-Dry Tonight and Friday
-Rain chances return Friday Evening
-Model differences continue for this weekend into the middle of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure has moved into the Eastern Great Lakes while a stationary front was draped generally west to east across Canada.  Some sunshine did occur at times Today mainly in Northern Minnesota while a considerable amount of cloudiness prevailed elsewhere.  Areas of dense fog developed late last night and lingered into mid-Morning near Lake Superior, there was also some patchy drizzle at times.  The fog and drizzle burned off by Noon Today.  High temperatures Today were in the low 70s at International Falls with 60s elsewhere while upper 40s to middle 50s continued in Superior and the Duluth Harbor, and along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was occurring in the Upper Midwest Today behind Wednesday's 500mb low which was moving E-SE through Southeast Michigan late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level ridge covered portions of the Northern Plains and Central Canada with a nearly stationary 500mb trough in place over the Pacific Northwest.  Note:  Today marks the 3rd day in a row with 80-90 degree temperatures across parts of Ontario and Quebec Province Canada.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Dry weather is expected on Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s and 70s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Low pressure will head east from the Northern Plains Friday Night with a moist southerly flow occurring out ahead of this system.  PWS by Friday Night are forecast to climb into the 1.00-1.50" range with 850mb td's around +8 to +12 degrees C.  Rain should develop Friday Evening and Overnight west and south of U.S. Highway 2 with rain slowly spreading farther north into the Iron Range cities after 3AM Friday Night.  Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well on Friday Night, mainly in Southern areas from Cass Lake and Walker down to Brainerd and Aitkin, east to Hinckley and Pine City, and toward the Siren, Spooner areas in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the east at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

About the only thing the computer models agree on Today is for a continuation of below average temperatures and easterly winds near Lake Superior with near to below average temperatures farther inland from Saturday into most of next week.

A southwest upper level flow will develop across the Plains as an upper level trough pulls east out of the Western U.S.  Deep low pressure will also head into the Plains by early next week with this low tracking E-NE toward the Southern/Central Great Lakes toward the middle of next week.  The greatest instability and moisture will stay well to our south, most likely in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri from Saturday through next Tuesday and that's where the highest threat for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be.  Our area is going to be sandwiched between the upper trough to our west and another 500mb trough which will retrograde toward the southwest from Northeastern Canada.  It's quite possible that the upper trough to our northeast and a developing Hudson Bay high will win out and keep most of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin generally dry from Monday through Wednesday, June 20th-23rd.  Before that time, the risk for some rain showers will continue this weekend with Saturday offering the greatest threat for some rain the way it looks now.

High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s possible on Sunday.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 46 to 51.  Wind northeast around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 66 to 71 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible late.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain.  Overcast.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 46 to 51.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  72 degrees
Low:  49 degrees

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Grass:  Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:05 PM CDT

Tim