Wednesday, June 15, 2011

6/15/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:51 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 15th, 2011

Rainfall report for Tuesday through Wednesday Morning, June 14th-15th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Brainerd, MN:  0.27"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.41"
4 miles south of Bruno, MN:  0.30"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.16"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.13"
Webster, WI:  0.46"

Weather History:

On this date in 1989:  A record low temperature of 35 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Rain diminishes Tonight
-Slight shower chances for Thursday and Friday
-Unsettled/cool weather pattern possible this weekend thru the middle of next week
-Tornadoes reported in Saskatchewan Province on Tuesday
-Heat to the north and heat to the south

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1004mb was located in Western Minnesota late This Afternoon with a trough extending from Eastern North Dakota to Southeastern Minnesota.  A persistent band of mainly light to at times moderate rain was occurring from Northwest Wisconsin, back through the Twin Ports and adjacent areas of Eastcentral Minnesota Today while the Arrowhead and far Northern portions of Minnesota stayed mainly dry Today with even some sunshine occurring up in the Gunflint Trail and Grand Marais areas.  Highs Today were only in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the east under 20 mph.  Note:  A seperate system in Western Canada on Tuesday, June 14th, 2011 produced some severe weather with even 2 reports of tornadoes in Saskatchewan Province.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough was pulling east out of New England.  Upper level ridge remained in place in parts of Eastern Canada with 80-90 degree temperatures once again over parts of Quebec and Ontario Province, north to Hudson Bay! 500mb low was heading E-SE across Minnesota Today with a negatively tilted trough in place over parts of the Upper Midwest and Western Ontario Province per RUC model analysis. Another 500mb trough was seen digging S-SE across the Pacific Northwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

A band of rain in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota should slowly diminish This Evening with a few showers lingering Overnight.  The remainder of our area will also run the risk for a couple rain showers Tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east or west under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure at the surface and aloft combined with an upper level trough will be exiting to our north-east during this period.  There is a risk for a few showers Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening on the backside of this system, but coverage of the rain will be much more scattered compared to Today.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Model agreement is rather poor starting on Friday which lasts through the middle of next week.  It's an unsettled weather pattern with a southwest H5 flow, but exact placements and timing of low pressure and there warm fronts and cold fronts are handled differently by the computer models Today.  There does seem to be a southward trend with the placement of the lows and warm front Today, and this could keep the bulk of the severe weather farther south compared to what it looked like 24 hours ago.  The potential does exist for occasional showers beginning Friday Night and lasting through the middle of next week with a couple thunderstorms possible as well especially this weekend and or early next week, mainly for Western-Southern portions of the area.  High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Light rain and drizzle This Evening.  Overcast with a few showers Overnight.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 100% during the Evening and 30% after Midnight.

.Thursday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 46 to 51.  Wind east around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday...  Occasional showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  71 degrees
Low:  48 degrees

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:05 PM CDT

Tim