Tuesday, June 14, 2011

6/14/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:49 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 14th, 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Dry This Evening
-Rain threat increases mainly for Southern areas late Tonight
-Rain overspreads the entire Northland Wednesday and Wednesday Night
-Dry weather should return Thursday and Friday
-Another heat wave affecting portions of Canada

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1020mb remains nearly stationary over the Central-Eastern Great Lakes with low pressure extending from the Northern Plains to Central Plains.  Dry air with PWS of around 0.60" and dewpoints in the 40s were found in our area Today along with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s with mid and upper 50s in Superior and the Duluth Harbor.  Rain was falling over the Southern half of Minnesota Today with even some flash flooding reported in Southwestern Minnesota This Afternoon.  Winds across our area were southeast or east Today at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery reveals an upper level low covering New England while an upper level ridge associated with 80+ degree warmth covered portions of Central-Eastern Canada up to Hudson Bay! W-SW 500mb flow was in place across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today on the back side of the H5 ridge with a potent upper level low/upper trough moving slowly east out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Clouds will be on the increase with some rain slowly developing in portions of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The bulk of the rain for Tonight is expected to stay along and west-south of U.S. Highway 2, and west of Highway 27 in Wisconsin.  Dry weather should continue through the night for the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and from Bayfield through Ashland and Hurley.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with east or southeast winds under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure and a surface trough along with an upper level low will be moving into the Upper Midwest during this period.  Rain should be lifting N-NE through the area Tomorrow Morning with rain persisting most of the Afternoon and Evening in Northern and Northeast Minnesota while steadier rain during the Morning becomes more scattered in nature Tomorrow Afternoon/Evening south of a line from Walker to Cable to Mercer.  Skies could become partially sunny Wednesday Afternoon around the Brainerd Lakes, Pine City areas in Minnesota and if this happens, then there might be a few thunderstorms from Mid-Afternoon into the early Evening hours for Southern parts of our area as CAPE climbs to around 250 j/kg with Lifted Indices around zero degrees C.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south, east, or west under 15 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals from Tonight through Wednesday Night should average around 0.25", but localized higher amounts of 0.50"-1.00" are possible.

Extended Forecast:

A few showers might linger into Thursday, June 16th as low pressure slowly exits off to our north/east.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s to lower 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Dry weather is expected from Thursday Night into Friday Night...Lows will be in the 40s and 50s for Thursday Night and Friday Night with highs on Friday in the 60s and 70s.  Looks like a southwest flow will develop this weekend into early next week with a low pressure system lifting NE into the Northern Plains...Showers or thunderstorms are possible at times for Sunday and Monday, June 19th-20th.  This system has the potential of bringing a severe weather threat to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from this weekend into early next week per latest model guidance.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 46 to 51.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Rain.  Overcast.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 100%.

.Wednesday Night...  Occasional rain during the Evening.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind southeast around 12 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday...  Variable cloudiness.  Afternoon showers possible.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 46 to 51.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  71 degrees
Low:  48 degrees

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:05 PM CDT

Tim