Monday, May 9, 2011

5/9/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:03 PM CDT, Monday, May 9th, 2011

High temperature report for Sunday, May 8th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Hayward, WI:  71 degrees
Orr, MN:  70 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  70 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  70 degrees
Phillips, WI:  72 degrees
Bruno, MN:  71 degrees
Butternut, WI:  70 degrees
Gurney, WI:  71 degrees
Park Falls, WI:  71 degrees
Upson, WI:  73 degrees
Gordon, WI:  74 degrees
Solon Springs WI:  73 degrees

Rainfall report for Sunday-Monday, May 8th and 9th, 2011.  Ending around 6 AM CDT Today.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Brainerd, MN:  0.28"
4 miles south of Bruno, MN:  0.18"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN:  0.39"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  0.37"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.21"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.22"

Local storm report for Monday, May 9th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

12:47 PM CDT 5/9/11:  5 miles northeast of Cedar, WI (Iron county)  46 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.  40 knot wind gusts at Saxon Harbor.

12:57 PM CDT 5/9/11:  Glidden, WI (Ashland county)  46 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.

12:54 PM CDT 5/9/11:  Montreal, WI (Iron county)  Non-thunderstorm wind damage.  Tree downed due to gusty winds.

12:24 PM CDT 5/9/11:  2 miles southeast of Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  46 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.  40 knot wind gust measured 80 feet from on a ship.

11:06 AM CDT 5/9/11:  4 miles north-northwest of Upper Eau Claire (Bayfield county)  47 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.

12:05 PM CDT 5/9/11:  Gurney, WI (Iron county)  Non-thunderstorm wind damage.  Tree down on a powerline along north portion of Highway 169.

12:05 PM CDT 5/9/11:  5 miles south of Herbster, WI (Bayfield county)  Small branches blowing off trees.

10:13 AM CDT 5/9/11:  Spooner, WI (Washburn county)  40 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.

10:57 AM CDT 5/9/11:  2 miles northwest of Maple, WI (Douglas county)  50 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.  Pressure dropped 4 millibars during the preceding 30 minutes.

10:25 AM CDT 5/9/11:  Spooner, WI (Washburn county)  35 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.  Some small branches down in the Spooner area.

10:56 AM CDT 5/9/11:  2 miles northeast of Hayward, WI (Sawyer county)  48 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.

12:45 PM CDT 5/9/11:  Mellen, WI (Ashland county)  Non-thunderstorm wind damage.  A satellite dish and a few shingles blown off a house around Mellen.

12:45 PM CDT 5/9/11:  High Bridge, WI (Ashland county)  43 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.

1:24 PM CDT 5/9/11:  Phillips, WI (Price county)  50 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.  Sustained winds of 36 mph.

1:40 PM CDT 5/9/11:  Park Falls, WI (Price county)  50 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust.

1:31 PM CDT 5/9/11:  Park Falls, WI (Price county)  Trees and power lines down in the Park Falls area.

Weather headlines:

-Decaying MCS generates strong, damaging winds in parts of our area Today
-Scattered shower/thunderstorm risk thru Wednesday
-A few strong/severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday
-Slow moving low will result in lingering rain chances from Thursday-Saturday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure of 992mb was located in Northcentral Nebraska as of 3 PM CDT with a secondary low of 990mb centered in Northern Colorado.  A warm front extended from Northern Nebraska to far Southern Iowa.  Blazing heat was found near and south of that boundary Today with highs of 90 to around 100 degrees from Central-Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa and points south.  70s made it to far Southwest Minnesota Today while highs in our area were in the 50s and 60s with 40s from Superior and Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Warm and moist advection was occurring north of this warm front Today.  A cluster of showers and thunderstorms got going late last Evening in the Eastern Dakotas, this complex of storms then pushed east across portions of our area This Morning into early Afternoon.  Strong winds developed Today as this thunderstorm complex weakened, a wake low developed and caused strong winds of 30 to 55 mph in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  By mid-Afternoon, all the rain was confined to Northeastern Minnesota with dry conditions elsewhere.  Areas of drizzle and fog were occurring Today near Lake Superior as warm/moist air comes into contact with the chilly waters of Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Very deep 500mb trough covered the Western U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.  110 knot upper level wind maximums were located on the west side of this trough and southeast of this H5 trough per RUC model analysis.  Incredible amounts of warm air was surging north through the Plains Today with 850mb temperatures ranging from +20 degrees C at Sioux Falls, South Dakota to +26 degrees C at Grand Island, Nebraska.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure and warm front will remain well to our southwest.  Low level jet looks fairly weak Tonight based on latest short term model guidance, but elevated instability will be increasing from south to north during the night with MUCAPE in the 100-500 j/kg range...highest values in southern areas.  Showers will linger at least through the Evening hours in Northeast Minnesota with a few showers or thunderstorms possibly developing at times in Western-Southern parts of our area.  Severe weather potential looks very low for our area Tonight, but dangerous lightning strikes and small hail could accompany a few of the storms if they develop.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s, but some 30s will be found near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the southeast or east at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure of 990-994mb will lift N-NW through the Central Dakotas.  A warm front extending southeast of that low will lift north into the Southern half of Minnesota through Tuesday Evening before an occluded front/cold front pinches off the northward movement of the warm front Tuesday Night.  Lots of moisture will be found in our area during this period with PWS of 1.00-1.25", 850mb td's of +10 to +18 degrees C while surface dewpoints climb into the 50s and 60s away from Lake Superior.  Instability will also increase with MUCAPE of 1000-2500 j/kg while lifted indices drop to -2 to -8 degrees C.  Strong warming aloft will also be occurring through Tuesday Night as 700mb temperatures climb to around +10 degrees C with 850mb temperatures of +12 to +18 degrees C.  This layer of warm air aloft could prevent thunderstorms from forming through Tuesday Evening, but it appears that this cap will weaken sufficiently Tuesday Evening/Night to allow some thunderstorms to form.  Any storm that does develop could become severe due to the high amounts of instability in place, but a lot of the thunderstorms this far north will likely be elevated with the main risk being from large hail.  Wind shear will be in place with easterly winds near the surface, shifting S-SE at 850mb and SW at 500mb, so an isolated risk for elevated supercells will exist from Northcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.  500mb wind speeds will be lacking somewhat and will generally be around 30 knots while the low level jet increases to 30 to around 40 knots Tuesday Afternoon/Evening.

Note:  The best chance for possible surface based thunderstorm activity for our local area would be along and south of a line from Leader-Brainerd-Hinckley-Webster-and Spooner...  0-6 KM BULK AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR are forecast to be around 30 knots with 1KM HELICITY of around 150-200 m2/s2 in Eastcentral Minnesota with 1 KM EHI maxing out in the 2-3 range in Central Minnesota, generally near the I94 corridor.  An isolated risk for tornadoes will exist if surface based thunderstorms can develop late Tuesday Afternoon thru mid-Evening Tuesday in Central-Eastern Minnesota due to the shear mentioned above.

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with highs in the 40s near Lake Superior with 50s and 60s elsewhere, although some western-southern locales could spike into the 70s late Tuesday Afternoon.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are on tap Tuesday Night with lows in the 40s and 50s for most areas.  Winds during this period will be out of the southeast or east at 10-20 mph.

Note:  Areas of fog which could be dense at times will persist through Tuesday Night near Lake Superior and about 30-40 miles from Lake Superior.  Visibilities could drop to 1/2 mile at times in some locations.

Extended Forecast:

Wednesday and Wednesday Night, May 11th:  A cold front will become nearly stationary in Eastern Minnesota or Western Wisconsin as one low pressure lifts north into Manitoba Province while a secondary low heads out into the Central Plains.  A very moist airmass will reside along and east of the frontal boundary with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota on Wednesday.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible during this period across our area with an isolated risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon-Evening, mainly for Northwestern Wisconsin.  Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s but it will remain cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Thursday and Thursday Night, May 12th:  A frontal boundary remains over the Upper Midwest while low pressure lifts slowly northeast from the Central Plains.  A risk for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will continue in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Surface and upper level low combined with a 500mb trough will cover the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Central Plains for Friday and Saturday, May 13th-14th.  Rain chances will continue for our area as this system will be slow to exit the region.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Areas of fog.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and drizzle.  Low 41 to 45, a little cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Areas of fog.  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Areas of fog.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms.  High 52 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 53 to 58.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:  38

Tuesday's pollen forecast:

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:41 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:30 PM CDT

Tim