Friday, May 6, 2011

5/6/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:17 PM CDT, Friday, May 6th, 2011

Rainfall totals from Thursday, May 5th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.37"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.21"
Hibbing, MN:  0.32"
Hayward, WI:  0.28"
Cook, MN:  0.44"
Embarrass, MN:  0.24"
Floodwood, MN:  0.34"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.42"
Butternut, WI:  0.35"
Upson, WI:  0.26"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.30"
Winter, WI:  0.22"

Weather history:

On this date in 2000:  A record high temperature of 82 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather headlines:

-A few showers late Tonight through the weekend, mainly in western-southern parts of our area
-Near average temperatures into Monday, although it will be cooler near Lake Superior
-Unsettled weather still expected at times for next week
-Strong/severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday or Wednesday?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's weather:

A pleasant early May day with a mix of sun and clouds along with near to slightly above average temperatures.  Highs ranged from the 50s in some coastal locations to the 60s inland.  Winds were variable under 15 mph.  Surface map late This Afternoon featured a cold front across Northern Minnesota.  Low pressure of 1002mb was centered in Northeast Nebraska with a 1004mb low in Southeastern Saskatchewan Province.  A cold front connected the two lows and covered the Central Dakotas.

Today's upper level analysis:

500mb troughs covered Northeast Canada, Central-Eastern Ontario Province, south into the Great Lakes, with a third H5 trough covering portions of the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  A west-northwest upper level flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with a 100 knot upper level jet stream winds centered in the Pacific Northwest per RUC model analysis.  The heat was building south of this jet stream Today with temperatures in the lower 80s in Grand Island, Nebraska with 90 degree temperatures covering parts of North Texas and Southwest Oklahoma

Tonight:

Looks like a fairly quiet night in our area with partly to mostly cloudy skies, there might be a shower or two from Bigfork to Cass Lake, Pine River and Brainerd, but the greater risk for some showers for Tonight should be in Westcentral through the Southern half of Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s with east winds under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

West-northwest upper level flow continues this period with the disturbance in the Northern Plains Today tracking into the Upper Midwest while the cold front in far Northern Minnesota This Afternoon stays in that general area through Saturday Night.  A few showers are possible during this period from Northome and Bigfork, down to Cass Lake, Walker, and Brainerd with dry conditions for the rest of us.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs Tomorrow in the 50s and 60s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the east or north under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

500mb pattern becomes very amplified during the early to mid part of next week as an upper level trough digs into the Western U.S. while an upper level ridge expands across the Southern U.S.  The forecast models continue to agree on the overall set-up, but remain at odds as to the timing and eventual track of a fairly strong surface low that will come out of the Rockies/Western High Plains.  Southerly low level flow will pump warm, moist, and unstable air north into the Upper Midwest with 50 and 60 degree dewpoints spreading as far north as Central and Eastern Minnesota for Tuesday and Wednesday.  850mb td's are forecast to climb to +10 to +14 degrees C the early to mid part of next week with PWS of around 1.00", possibly as high as 1.25".  Instability may also increase especially for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday with CAPE possibly >1500 j/kg in portions of Minnesota while lifted index values decrease to -1 to -4 degrees C.  There should be some showers and thunderstorms developing at times north of a warm front which should reach into Iowa and possibly far Southern Minnesota for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Alot of the thunderstorms may be elevated due to a cap that is forecast to be in place (700mb temps around +10 degrees C) but there may still be a risk for some severe weather with mainly a large hail threat at some point between Tuesday and Wednesday, it's uncertain how far north in Minnesota the severe threat will get, but it would appear that at least the Southern half, possibly into Central and Eastern Minnesota could be at risk based on the latest model data.  High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s and 60s, cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  As for the weather on Sunday...It looks mainly dry at this time for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some showers moving in Sunday Night, mainly south of the Iron Range.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 52 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 53 to 58 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 43.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60
Low:  37

Saturday's pollen forecast:

Tree:    High
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:26 PM CDT

Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of May 6th, 2011:  37 degrees

Tim