Thursday, May 5, 2011

5/5/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:14 PM CDT, Thursday, May 5th, 2011

Here are some rainfall totals from late last night, ending around 6 AM CDT Today.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Brainerd, MN:  0.55"
Bruno, MN:  0.36"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.73"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  0.44"
Floodwood, MN:  0.37"
Sarona, WI:  0.20"
Webster, WI:  0.33"

Weather tidbits:

*1st 60 degree day in May occurred sooner this year compared to last at Duluth, Minnesota.  May 4th, 2011 versus May 15th, 2010.

Weather headlines:

-Scattered rains This Evening
-Patchy fog threat late Tonight/early Friday Morning
-Warmer/dry conditions ahead for Friday
-Pattern still looks unsettled at times this weekend into most of next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A rather vigorous storm was lifting east-northeast across our area Today.  Widespread rain earlier in the day gave way to scattered Afternoon rain.  Skies were mainly cloudy in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today, but there has been some clearing This Afternoon in Northcentral and Eastern Minnesota, the partial sunshine combined with chilly temperatures aloft resulted in a few pop-up showers in these areas.  Highs Today were in the 50s in Northern and Eastern Minnesota with 40s elsewhere.  Winds Today were northeast or northwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Three systems are affecting the Northern U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.  500mb low/trough covered the Northeast U.S./Eastern portions of Canada.  A second upper level low/trough was moving east across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  The third system was moving east out of the Pacific Northwest.  While the pattern remains active in our area, the Southwest U.S. was in the grips of an early season heat wave with 90+ degree temperatures Today from Central and Southern California to Southern Arizona.

Tonight:

Scattered showers will come to an end This Evening with partly to mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog Overnight.  Note:  Rain will be slower to end in the Arrowhead of Minnesota since this system has a negative tilt to it which will keep rain falling somewhat longer in that area.  Still might see an isolated thunderstorm before 8 PM along and west-south of a line from International Falls to Moose Lake to Shell Lake, but instability was on the low side late This Afternoon with CAPE under 100 j/kg, this probably will not rise much through sunset, thus any thunderstorm that manages to develop should be short lived.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with north or northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Brief upper level ridge/surface high will pass through the area on Friday with partly cloudy skies.  Highs will reach the 50s and 60s with north or west winds under 20 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Friday Night with a few showers possible in western-southern areas as the next system heads east-southeast from the Northern Plains.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s with winds turning to the east.

Extended Forecast:

A few showers can't be ruled out either Saturday or Sunday as a couple of disturbances pass through the area in a near zonal flow.  The 500mb pattern becomes quite amplified next week as a large upper level trough becomes nearly stationary across the Rockies while low pressure sits over the Westcentral High Plains from Monday through Wednesday, May 9th-11th.  Broad southerly low level flow will transport warm/humid/and increasingly more unstable air north into the Upper Midwest, this could lead to a few rounds of showers or thunderstorms across our area during the early to mid part of next week.  Note:  The computer models have trended a bit more to the north with the warm front for the middle of next week with a potential for some severe weather across the Southern half of Minnesota around Wednesday of next week the way it looks now, dewpoints could rise above 60 with highs well into the 70s, possibly even some 80s for Southern Minnesota for the middle of next week.  Severe threat for our local area looks limited at the moment, but an elevated thunderstorm/severe threat with a potential for hail is possible for the middle of next week depending on how far north this system sets up.  High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s to lower 60s, but it will be cooler both days near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  A few showers before 9 PM.  Mostly cloudy, becoming partly cloudy late.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Warmer.  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 43.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 43.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Friday's Pollen forecast:

Tree:    Low
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:  37

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:25 PM CDT

Tim