Issued at 4:18 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 4th, 2011
-Clouds increase Tonight
-Rain late Tonight through Thursday Evening
-Isolated thunderstorm potential Thursday Afternoon
-Prolonged period of unsettled weather possible this weekend into next week?
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A very nice spring day as southerly winds locked in behind a ridge of high pressure which was centered to our southeast Today. High temperatures were mainly in the 60s which is actually a few degrees above average for early May. Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with wind speeds of 10 to 25 mph.
Today's Upper Level Analysis:
Upper level ridge was pushing off to our east and is being replaced by a 500mb trough which was moving through the Northern Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery.
A cold front and upper level trough will be pulling east out of the Dakotas. Skies will become mostly cloudy through Midnight with areas of rain developing especially Overnight. A southerly low level jet of around 30-40 knots will pull moisture north into our area with PWS increasing from 0.30" to around 0.75" Overnight. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with south or east winds under 20 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night:
An area of low pressure will pass by to our south/southeast with a cold front and 500mb trough passing through our area on Thursday. Rain is likely at times on Thursday with lingering showers Thursday Evening with dry weather for late Thursday Night. There still is a possibility for an Afternoon thunderstorm, mainly in western-southwest areas or from International Falls and Bigfork, down to Cass Lake, Pine River and Brainerd...Some partial clearing may take place in those areas Thursday Afternoon which would lead to a few hundred j/kg of CAPE. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and lower 40s. South, east, or north winds Tomorrow will become west or north Tomorrow Night. Wind speeds will be under 20 mph during this period.
Note: Rainfall totals from late Tonight through early Thursday Evening in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 0.10-0.30" range with localized higher amounts of up to 1/2".
Dry weather is expected for Friday as high pressure passes through our area. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s. Might get a few showers in western-southern areas Friday Night with lows in the 30s and 40s. A near zonal flow is expected this weekend with a disturbance or two embedded within the flow pushing through the Upper Midwest. Scattered showers are possible both Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures for Saturday will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with lows Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s. Forecast models are indicating a pattern that is pretty typical for this time of year for next week with a strong high near Hudson Bay while deep low pressure and a strong 500mb trough move east out of the Rockies. There will be clusters of showers and thunderstorms with possible severe weather at times near a warm front which will be located well to our south during the early to middle part of next week. Right now it appears that the heavy rain/severe threat will be to our south for next week with occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two affecting our area from next Monday through Wednesday 9th-11th.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight... Increasing cloudiness. Showers developing after 4 AM. Low 40 to 43. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph through mid-Evening.
.Thursday... Occasional showers. Considerable cloudiness. High 50 to 55. Wind becoming north at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday Night... A few showers possible early. Considerable cloudiness. Low 38 to 41. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday... Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.
.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 43.
.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55.
.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 43.
.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.
Thursday's Pollen forecast:
Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of May 4th, 2011: 34.6 degrees
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tomorrow: 5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow: 8:24 PM CDT