Tuesday, May 31, 2011

5/31/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:03 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 31st, 2011

*WIND ADVISORY*

National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT Tonight for the following counties:  Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Pine MN...Carlton MN...Central and Southern St. Louis MN...Southern Lake MN...Southern Cook MN...Douglas WI...Burnett WI...and Washburn WI.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...Pine City MN...Hinckley MN...Moose Lake MN...Wright MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Siren WI...and Spooner WI.

Impacts:  Strong southwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts over 40 mph This Evening.  Strong winds may result in some tree branches or weaker trees being blown down.  This may result in some power outages This Evening.  Any loose outdoor items such as trash cans, furniture, and camping equipment should be secured.  The winds may also make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

This wind advisory means that winds in excess of 30 mph are expected.  Use extra caution.

Note:  A couple rounds of severe thunderstorms affected portions of Northwest Wisconsin on Monday with large hail and spotty wind damage.  Another round of severe thunderstorms impacted parts of Northcentral Minnesota late Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning, the Brainerd Lakes area was hit hardest by this second round of storms with widespread wind damage reported.

Local Storm Reports for Monday and Tuesday, May 30th-31st, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Morning round:

*6:09 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.75" HAIL.  Spooner, WI (Washburn county)  Dime and pea size hail

*6:21 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.25" HAIL.  Gordon, WI (Douglas county)

*6:30 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.25" HAIL.  Drummond, WI (Bayfield county)

*5:40 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.88" HAIL.  9 miles southeast of Webster, WI (Burnett county)

*9:37 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.75" HAIL.  7 miles west of Spooner, WI (Washburn county)

*9:35 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.25" HAIL.  2 miles east of Spooner, WI (Washburn county)

*12:47 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles west of Sarona, WI (Washburn county)  Several 8" diameter trees down along County road D

*2:04 PM CDT 5/30/11:  1.50" HAIL.  4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI (Burnett county)

*12:15 PM CDT 5/30/11:  0.50" HAIL.  2 miles north of Shell Lake, WI (Washburn county)

*12:40 PM CDT 5/30/11:  0.50" HAIL.  6 miles north-northeast of Little Round Lake (Sawyer county)

Late Evening/early Morning round of storms:

*11:30 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Pillager, MN (Cass county)  Power lines downed in the Pillager area.

*11:37 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  5 miles northeast of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  60 mph wind gust with sustained winds of 40 mph at the Brainerd Airport

*11:37 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing county)  Trees and power lines down in the area

*11:40 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing county)  Boat lift blown across a Highway in the Breezy Point area.

*11:38 PM CDT 5/30/11:  Merrifield, MN (Crow Wing county)  44 mph THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST

*11:32 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Pequot Lakes, MN (Crow Wing county)  Trees blown down

*11:38 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Merrifield, MN (Crow Wing county)  Trees blown down

*11:58 PM CDT 5/30/11:  2 miles south of Emily, MN (Crow Wing county)  43 mph THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST

*12:34 AM CDT 5/31/11:  McGregor, MN (Aitkin county)  40 mph THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST

*12:05 AM CDT 5/31/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles northeast of Garrison, MN (Aitkin county)  Tree blocking Highway 18 near the Junction with U.S. 169

*11:35 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles northeast of Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing county)  Significant wind damage...Trees and power lines down across most County roads between County Highway 11 and the Merrifield area.  Trees fell on campers on Mission Lake, no reports of injuries.  Some docks were damaged on the east end of Pelican Lake

*11:45 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 miles south-southwest of Cross Lake, MN (Crow Wing county)  Two 12" diameter living trees uprooted

Rainfall report for Sunday Evening through Monday Morning, May 29th-30th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Brainerd, MN:  0.23"
4 miles south of Bruno, MN:  0.52"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.39"
Gurney, WI:  0.32"
Madeline Island, WI:  0.42"
Upson, WI:  0.61"
Webster, WI:  0.47"

Rainfall report for Monday and Tuesday Morning, May 30th-31st, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.52"
Brainerd, MN:  0.92"
Ashland, WI:  1.52"
Hayward, WI:  0.77"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.66"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  0.63"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN:  0.41"
Cass Lake, MN:  0.66"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.54"
Gurney, WI:  1.92"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.86"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  1.45"

A big temperature contrast occurred across the state of Minnesota on Monday, May 30th, 2011:  Source NWS Duluth and Chanhassen, MN.

Brainerd, MN:  81 degrees
Siren, WI:  82 degrees
Phillips, WI:  81 degrees  Note:  Low temperature was 73 degrees
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  80 degrees
Minneapolis, MN:  88 degrees
St. Cloud, MN:  83 degrees
Redwood Falls, MN:  90 degrees
Fairmont, MN:  88 degrees
Olivia, MN:  90 degrees

Sky Harbor, MN:  48 degrees
Superior, WI:  48 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Strong winds linger into Wednesday
-Sporadic power outages and isolated tree damage may occur due to the high winds Tonight
-Patchy drizzle/light rain showers possible for some areas Tonight
-Thursday and Friday will be our next possible thunderstorm outbreak

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

994mb low was centered in Southeastern Manitoba Province late This Afternoon with the cold front attached to this low moving across Upper and Lower Michigan late Today.  A band of showers and thunderstorms did develop late This Morning/early This Afternoon in portions of Northwest Wisconsin as the cold front moved through, otherwise the big weather story Today were the strong southwest winds on the southeast flank of this intense late Spring storm.  Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph were common throughout our area This Afternoon with wind gusts of 30-40 mph.  A mixture of clouds and sunshine were seen across the region Today with Afternoon light showers pushing through the Northern half of Minnesota.  High temperatures Today ranged from the 70s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with upper 50s and 60s in Northern-Western areas.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Intense 500mb trough with 90-150 meter 12 hour H5 height falls was moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  100-110+ knot upper level jet stream winds were located just east of the surface and H5 low and on the southwest side of the system in South Dakota.  Behind this storm was an upper level ridge which was building north across the Rockies, while another deep trough covers the Pacific Northwest, Western Canada, and Northeast Pacific.

Tonight:

Low pressure averaging 992mb will track into Central Ontario Province.  Brisk southwest winds from 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will continue in our area.  A few showers will also occur Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will move into Hudson Bay Canada while high pressure slides east out of the Northern Rockies.  A few showers are possible Tomorrow Morning in far Northeast Minnesota, otherwise this period looks dry.  Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the 60s with lows Wednesday Night in the 40s.  West winds will continue to be quite brisk Tomorrow with wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.  Winds will subside to 5-15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday, June 2nd:  Low pressure will move into the Northern Plains while a warm front lifts northeast into Western-Southern Minnesota.  Warm and moist advection pattern will develop during this period as a southerly low level jet kicks in once again.  Much like Monday, a strong cap will advect E-NE out of the Western High Plains with 700mb temperatures soaring to +10 to +12 degrees C while 850mb temperatures reach the +20s C by Thursday Night into Friday.  Chances for surface based thunderstorms are very low for both Thursday and Friday due to the strong warming aloft, but scattered elevated convection is certainly possible for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday Afternoon into Friday Evening.  Sufficient amounts of elevated instability combined with favorable wind shear and strong mid and upper level winds could lead to a risk of severe thunderstorms, but with the cap in place the main risk from any severe thunderstorms would be from large hail and perhaps some strong winds.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior as onshore winds develop.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Friday, June 3rd:  Low pressure will be passing through the Upper Midwest with a warm front and cold front moving east through our area into Friday Evening.  A strong cap will remain in place on Friday, but instability, moisture, and shear will be more than favorable to cause a few showers and thunderstorms with an isolated severe weather risk.  Highs for Friday will be in the 70s and 80s but it will remain cooler near Lake Superior, however the 12z GFS from Today does have a southwest wind developing even near Lake Superior for Friday with 80+ degree temperatures.  Lows Friday Night will be mainly in the 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

"WIND ADVISORY"
Timing:  Until 10 PM CDT Tonight

.Tonight...  Windy.  Southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph.  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers.  Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday...  Windy.  West to southwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with a few higher gusts.  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph becoming east late.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Showers possible mainly during the Afternoon.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night...  Scattered showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday...  A few showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  68
Low:  45

Wednesday's Pollen Forecast

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim