Issued at 4:10 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 3rd, 2011
-Quiet weather into Wednesday
-High temps trend a few degrees warmer for Wednesday
-Wet weather returns Wednesday Evening thru Thursday
-A period of unsettled weather late this weekend into the middle next week?
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Scattered cumulus clouds were seen away from Lake Superior Today with mainly sunny skies in the stable air near the lake. Highs Today were in the 50s with 40s in the Duluth/Superior Harbor. Winds were variable under 12 mph. Surface map at 3 PM CDT featured a ridge of high pressure 1026-1028mb extending from the Upper Midwest through the Central and Southern Plains.
Today's Upper Level Analysis:
Upper level high pressure ridge covered Florida into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas per RUC model analysis. 500mb low was moving east out of Lake Michigan. A fast southwest flow aloft was occurring from Texas to the Ohio Valley to Eastern Canada in between the upper high and upper level low. N-NW H5 flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today while a new upper level trough digs south/east through the Rockies.
Fair skies and cool temperatures will be the rule with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be variable under 12 mph.
Large high pressure ridge overhead Tonight will shift to the east Tomorrow with southerly winds developing on the back side of that high. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s, so a few degrees warmer than Today, but these forecasted highs are still right around average for early May. Partly cloudy to sunny skies can be expected on Wednesday with southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
Moisture will increase thanks to a southerly low level jet of around 35 knots. PWS will climb to around 1/2" with dewpoints getting into the 30s. Increasing clouds will be followed by late Evening/Overnight rain showers across our area as a cold front moves east out of the Northern Plains. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s with south or east winds under 20 mph.
Low pressure, cold front, and upper level trough will be pushing through our area on Thursday with a continued risk for showers. The atmosphere may become unstable enough Thursday Afternoon to support a few thunderstorms, but this risk looks fairly small at the moment. Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s. A few showers could linger into Thursday Evening, then dry weather is expected Thursday Night into Friday. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s with highs on Friday in the 50s and 60s. Friday Night and Saturday will feature an area of low pressure passing to our west and south with a few showers possibly spreading north into our area. Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Sunday through Wednesday, May 8th-11th could turn wet and possibly stormy at times as a pattern change takes place. Looks like will see a rather large upper level trough move from the Rockies to the Plains with a southerly flow of warm, moist, and unstable air developing out ahead of this H5 trough. The stage appears to be set for a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the Upper Midwest from Sunday through Wednesday...Some severe weather could reach into portions of Minnesota early next week, depending on how this system sets up.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight... Clear. Low 30 to 35. Wind variable around 12 mph.
.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 56 to 61 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night... Increasing cloudiness. Showers possible Overnight. Low 40 to 43. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday... Occasional showers. Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50.
.Thursday Night... Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible early. Low 38 to 41.
.Friday... Partly sunny. High 58 to 63.
.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 41.
.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.
Wednesday's Pollen forecast:
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tomorrow: 5:49 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow: 8:23 PM CDT