Sunday, May 29, 2011

5/29/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 6:38 PM CDT, Sunday, May 29th, 2011

Weather Tidbits: 
Source:  SPC

*330 Tornado reports in the U.S. so far in May
*Year to date severe weather reports in the U.S.:  12,978
*Year to date tornado reports in the U.S.:  1,371
*15 tornado reports in Minnesota so far for 2011
*35 tornado reports in Wisconsin so far in 2011

Additional storm reports from Saturday, May 28th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*2:45 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75" HAIL.  14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake county)

*2:58 PM CDT 5/28/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles east-southeast of Ely, MN (Lake county)  A couple trees blown down along the Kawishiwi Trail.

*3:28 PM CDT 5/28/11:  1.00" HAIL.  5 miles north of Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)

*3:32 PM CDT 5/28/11:  FUNNEL CLOUD.  4 miles north of Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)

*3:40 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75" HAIL.  1 mile west of Illgen City, MN (Lake county)

*3:45 PM CDT 5/28/11:  FUNNEL CLOUD.  2 miles east-southeast of Illgen City, MN (Lake county)

*4:50 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.88" HAIL.  1 mile west of Illgen City, MN (Lake county)

*5:30 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.50" HAIL.  4 miles south of Stone Lake, WI (Washburn county)

*5:38 PM CDT 5/28/11:  1.00" HAIL.  2 miles east-northeast of Sturgeon Lake, MN (Pine county)

*5:45 PM CDT 5/28/11:  1.00" HAIL.  3 miles east-southeast of Moose Lake, MN (Carlton county)

*5:45 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.88" HAIL.  1 mile southeast of Moose Lake, MN (Carlton county)

*6:08 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75" HAIL.  1 mile west of Wrenshall, MN (Carlton county)

*6:12 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75" HAIL.  Carlton, MN (Carlton county)

*6:15 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.50" HAIL.  New Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  Gusty winds blew down a swing set and small tree branches

*6:19 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75" HAIL.  Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)

Rainfall report for Saturday, May 28th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls, MN:  0.40"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.64"
Cook, MN:  0.35"
Embarrass, MN:  0.53"
Grand Portage, MN:  0.50"
Gunflint Lake, MN:  0.54"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.37"
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.43"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.57"
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.21"
Butternut, WI:  0.26"
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.13"

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms thru Tuesday Morning
-Severe weather threat begins late Tonight and lingers into Monday
-Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards from severe storms
-Isolated tornado risk late Monday Afternoon-early Monday Evening?
-Gusty winds develop on Monday, lingering into Tuesday Night

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with a couple light rain showers moving northeast through portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Late This Afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms had developed from Central Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures Today were generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees with winds switching from the west to the north/east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow over the Upper Midwest was out of the southwest as a powerful upper level low and upper trough heads into the Rockies per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  A 90 knot mid level jet and a 110 knot upper level jet were located in the Southern Rockies or on the southeast side of this system.  To the east of this system, from the Central and Southern U.S. a late May heat wave was expanding with many areas topping the 85 to 90 degree mark Today as an upper level ridge of high pressure covers areas from the Southern Plains to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure of 986-993mb will pull into Colorado with a warm front extending E-NE of that low pushing north into Southern Minnesota.  Warm and moist advection pattern was underway across our area early This Evening and as a southerly low level jet increases to over 30 knots Overnight, expect elevated instability to push north with MU CAPES climbing to 500-1000 j/kg from the Brainerd Lakes, east through Northwestern Wisconsin.  Scattered showers will occur Tonight with thunderstorms also likely, mainly in Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin.  A threat for severe weather will develop especially late Tonight in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with shear of 30-40 knots in place north of the warm front.  Large hail would be the main risk from a severe thunderstorm.  Locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning strikes are also expected with the thunderstorms Tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s along with east or southeast winds under 20 mph will be found in our area Tonight.

Monday and Monday Night:

Deep low pressure averaging 993mb will lift N-NE out of Colorado, reaching Central North Dakota by Monday Evening.  A warm front will be pushing north into Northcentral Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin through Monday Evening while a cold front surges NE out of the Northern Plains Monday Night.

A very moist airmass will spread north into the area with dewpoints getting into the 60s away from Lake Superior.  PWS of 1.00-1.50" with 850mb td's of +10 to +18 degrees C will also be found across the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur during this period in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  There will be a risk for severe storms with large hail into mid-Afternoon Monday as elevated instabilty continues to push north.

By Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening, a strong cap is forecast to advect E-NE out of Western Minnesota with 700mb temperatures of +10 to +13 degrees C! It's uncertain whether or not some additional thunderstorms will develop late Monday Afternoon or Monday Evening in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin due to this cap, however, if storms can develop...Then they will certainly have the potential of becoming severe with very favorable conditions in place to support supercell and severe weather development.

A southwest mid level jet of 60-80 knots will move in from the Northern Plains while a S-SE 850mb jet of 40-60 knots develops in Minnesota out ahead of the low in the Northern Plains.

Plenty of wind shear will be in place with 40-55 knots of 6KM and Effective Bulk Shear with 1km helicity in the 100-250 m2/s2 range.

A risk for a few tornadoes could develop between 5PM-10PM Monday, especially in Central and Western Minnesota where the 1km EHI will be maximized in the 1-3 range per latest model data.  Note:  SREF tornado probs remain very high in those areas as well for late Monday Afternoon/early Evening with values of 4-6 from Westcentral into Northcentral Minnesota.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could linger even past Midnight Monday Night as the atmosphere remains moist and rather unstable, and the lift provided by the approaching cold front could be enough to keep some storms going Overnight with at least an isolated risk of severe weather for our local area.

Monday's high temperatures will range from the 40s near Lake Superior with 70s and maybe even some 80s in Southern areas while Northern Minnesota and the Iron Range cities remain in the 50s and 60s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph during this period with higher gusts.

Note:  Areas of fog could develop near Lake Superior Tomorrow into early Tuesday Morning with some locally dense fog possible at times.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday, May 31st:  Strong low pressure passes by to our northwest with a cold front exiting Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Morning.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible into early Tuesday Afternoon, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Gusty southwest to west winds will kick in during this period to the southeast of the surface low.  Wind gusts will likely exceed 25 mph.

Wednesday, June 1st:  Low pressure will pass through Central Canada with high pressure in control of our weather.  Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s with lows in the 40s to around 50.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms developing, mainly late.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Memorial Day...  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Areas of fog possible.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday Night...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Areas of fog possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer.  High 70 to 75.  Wind becoming southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  68
Low:  44

Monday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:53 PM CDT

Tim