Wednesday, May 25, 2011

5/25/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:21 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 25th, 2011

*FREEZE WARNING*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a Freeze Warning from 12 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Thursday for the following Counties:  Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Central and Northern St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN.  Some cities included in the warning:  International Falls MN...Northome MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Isabella MN...and Grand Marais MN.

*Temperatures Overnight will fall into the 20s in Northern Minnesota with a widespread freeze expected.  All but the most hearty young plants will be damaged or killed by the freeze.  Landscaping and certain hearty early plant species such as carrots and onions are not apt to be harmed.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely.  These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.  Cover tender young plants or move them indoors around or before nightfall.

*FROST ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a Frost Advisory from 12 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Thursday for the following counties:  Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...Southern St. Louis MN...Douglas WI...Bayfield WI...Ashland WI...Iron WI...Burnett WI...Washburn WI...Sawyer WI...and Price WI.  Some cities included in the advisory:  Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Brainerd MN...Aitkin MN...Hill City MN...Moose Lake MN...Wright MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Upson WI...Hurley WI...Siren WI...Spooner WI...Hayward WI...and Park Falls WI.

*Temperatures will fall to the lower to middle 30s Overnight with areas of frost.  Tender young plants such as tomatoes, peppers, and certain delicate flowering plants may be damaged.  More hearty plants and landscaping will likely not be harmed.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be damaged or killed if left uncovered.

Low temperature report for Wednesday, May 25th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  28 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  31 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  30 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  28 degrees
Ely, MN:  30 degrees
Orr, MN:  30 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  28 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  32 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  32 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  32 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  26 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  28 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  30 degrees

Note:  Last year on Today's date the high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota was 86 degrees.

*UPDATED INFORMATION ON SUNDAY'S TORNADO OUTBREAK*

Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

5 confirmed tornadoes in Northern Wisconsin on Sunday, May 22nd, 2011.

Tornado number 1:

Start time:  2:33 PM CDT, 12.7 miles southwest of Park Falls, Wisconsin
End time:  2:38 PM CDT, 10.2 miles southwest of Park Falls, Wisconsin
Path length:  2.8 miles
Max path width:  0.34 miles (estimated)
Rating:  Weak EF1

Tornado number 2:

Start time:  5:39 PM CDT, 4.5 miles west of Prentice, Wisconsin
End time:  5:41 PM CDT, 4.3 miles west of Prentice, Wisconsin
Path length:  1.0 mile
Max path width:  0.22 miles (estimated)
Rating:  EF0

Tornado number 3:

4 miles north-northwest of Prentice, Wisconsin
Time:  5:22 PM CDT (estimated from radar)
Path length:  1.0 mile
Max path width:  0.24 miles (estimated)
Rating:  EF0

Tornado number 4:

Start time:  6:01 PM CDT, 6.5 miles east-southeast of Phillips, Wisconsin
End time:  6:04 PM CDT, 6.9 miles east-southeast of Phillips, Wisconsin
Path length:  1.9 miles
Max path width:  0.21 miles
Rating:  EF0

Tornado number 5:

17 miles northwest of Phillips, Wisconsin
Time:  6:26 PM CDT (estimated from radar)
Path length:  0.8 miles
Max path width:  0.16 miles
Rating:  EF0

WEATHER TIDBITS:

*504 U.S. tornado fatalities so far in 2011 (thru May 24th)
*2000-2010 had a total of 605 tornado deaths
*1,228 preliminary tornado reports in the U.S. so far in 2011 (thru May 24th)
*546 severe weather reports/48 tornado reports in the U.S. on Tuesday, May 23rd, 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Frost/freeze expected for parts of the Northland Tonight and Thursday Night
-Stays dry thru Friday
-Rain chances return Friday Night and linger thru early next week
-Severe thunderstorm threat early next week?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 996mb was centered in Northern Missouri late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1022mb in Southeast Saskatchewan Province.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Winds were out of the east or north at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a very strong upper level low cutting across Missouri with an upper level trough moving through portions of the Central Plains and Southern Great Lakes.  A northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level ridge in the Rockies while another upper level low/trough move into the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure will keep our area dry, but cool during this period.  Areas of frost are likely late Tonight and again late Thursday Night.  Low temperatures both nights will be in the 30s with 20s in the typical cold spots.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s near Lake Superior.  North or east winds are expected during this period under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Friday, May 27th looks dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but chances for rain will increase from west to east Friday Night into Saturday as low pressure heads east out of the Northern Plains.  Saturday Afternoon may contain an isolated risk for thunderstorms especially if skies clear a bit.  A layer of cold air aloft will be spreading into the Upper Midwest on Saturday with some weak instability possibly developing during the Afternoon if skies clear.  High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for Friday and Saturday with lows mainly in the 40s.

Sunday and Sunday Night, May 29th:  A warm front will develop well to our south with low pressure in the Western High Plains tracking E-NE along this boundary.  Some rain could affect portions of our area on Sunday, but the threat for thunderstorms and possible severe weather should remain to our south, unless the low takes a track farther north.

Monday through Tuesday, May 30th-31st:  Another area of low pressure is forecast to move from the Rockies to the Northern Plains during this period.  A warm front is forecast to lift north into the Upper Midwest with a cold front blasting east out of the Northern Plains.  The timing of this system is still somewhat uncertain, but this storm has the potential of bringing some severe weather to portions of the Upper Midwest.  The computer models are showing strong low and mid level winds...30-50+ knot S-SE low level jet with a 60+ knot SW mid level flow.  Moisture and instability will increase on Monday, but temperatures aloft will also warm which may suppress thunderstorm development until Monday Evening or Overnight.  Again there could be some severe weather in portions of Minnesota sometime Monday or possibly on Tuesday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*FROST ADVISORY*
Timing:  12 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Thursday.

.Tonight...  Mostly clear with areas of frost Overnight.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly clear.  Areas of frost possible late.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 52 to 57 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 38 to 42.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 55 to 60.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  67
Low:  43

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    High
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:23 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:49 PM CDT

Tim