Monday, May 23, 2011

5/23/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:18 PM CDT, Monday, May 23rd, 2011

A significant severe weather outbreak affected portions of the Upper Midwest and Central Plains on Saturday and Sunday, May 21st-22nd, 2011.  Latest info. via SPC, TWC, and the Associated Press.

277 severe weather reports/22 tornado reports on Saturday, May 21st, 2011.
789 severe weather reports/51 tornado reports on Sunday, May 22nd, 2011.

Two day total:  1,066 severe weather reports/73 tornado reports.

14 tornado reports in Minnesota and 13 tornado reports in Wisconsin on Sunday, May 22nd, 2011.

30 injuries and 1 fatality from a tornado that struck Minneapolis, Minnesota (northern suburbs) on Sunday Afternoon.

Joplin, Missouri tornado from Sunday, May 22nd, 2011 has been rated an EF4 (preliminary rating) with winds greater than 190 mph.  Death toll from this tornado has climbed to 116 which makes it the single deadliest tornado since Woodward, Oklahoma on April 9th, 1947 which killed 181 people.  Red Cross reports that 75% of Joplin, Missouri is gone.

2011 tornado season has been a deadly one.  So far, thru May 22nd, 2011 there have been 481 deaths in the U.S.  This is the first year since 1953 (519 deaths) with over 400 fatalities from tornadoes.

Since 1875 there have only been 9 other years with over 400 U.S. tornado deaths.

Annual U.S. Killer Tornado Statistics:

2000:    41 fatalities
2001:    40 fatalities
2002:    55 fatalities
2003:    54 fatalities
2004:    36 fatalities
2005:    39 fatalities
2006:    67 fatalities
2007:    81 fatalities
2008:  126 fatalities
2009:    21 fatalities
2010:    45 fatalities
2011:  481 fatalities (thru May 22nd)

Rainfall report for Saturday through 7 AM CDT Sunday, May 21st-22nd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  0.39"
International Falls, MN:  0.44"
Brainerd, MN:  0.65"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.84"
Hibbing, MN:  0.27"
Hayward, WI:  0.24"
Bruno, MN:  0.87"
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  1.27"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  1.28"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.57"
Littlefork, MN:  0.38"
Northome, MN:  0.42"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.58"
Finland, MN:  0.64"
Butternut, WI:  0.35"

Rainfall report for Sunday through 7 AM CDT Monday, May 22nd-23rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.43"
Brainerd, MN:  0.95"
Ashland, WI:  0.70"
Hayward, WI:  0.86"
Bruno, MN:  1.29"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  1.33"
Dixon Lake, MN:  1.17"
Littlefork, MN:  0.69"
Northome, MN:  0.30"
Embarrass, MN:  0.43"
Kabetogama, MN:  0.46"
Silver Bay, MN:  0.53"
Butternut, WI:  1.75"
Gile, WI:  1.20"
Upson, WI:  0.85"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.71"

Local storm reports for Sunday, May 22nd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth

*1:25 AM CDT 5/22/11:  0.88" hail.  Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  Dime to nickle sized hail covering the ground.
*3:04 PM CDT 5/22/11:  Thunderstorm wind damage.  2 miles northwest of Park Falls, WI (Price county)  12-14" diameter trees down across Kley road.
*3:23 PM CDT 5/22/11:  1.00" hail.  6 miles southwest of Butternut, WI (Price county)
*3:04 PM CDT 5/22/11:  1.00" hail.  3 miles north of Butternut, WI (Ashland county)
*5:18 PM CDT 5/22/11:  Thunderstorm wind gust.  50 mph.  Loretta, WI (Sawyer county)
*5:33 PM CDT 5/22/11:  1.50" hail.  2 miles south of Kennan, WI (Price county)
*5:33 PM CDT 5/22/11:  0.50" hail (dime size) 1 mile west of Catawba, WI (Price county)
*5:36 PM CDT 5/22/11:  Funnel cloud.  5 miles west of Catawba, WI (Price county)
*6:13 PM CDT 5/22/11:  Tornado.  1 mile northeast of Phillips, WI (Price county)  Thunderstorm wind damage.  Shed destroyed near county road H and Willow road.  Damage could be from a possible tornado.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Spotty showers This Evening
-Dry weather most of this week
-Patchy frost potential for mid-week
-Potential major severe weather/tornado outbreak in the Central Plains for the next few days

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 994mb has moved into Northeast Ontario Province late This Afternoon.  Clouds and isolated showers were occurring in our area Today on the backside of this low.  High temperatures Today were in the 60s to lower 70s with north or northwest winds at 5-15 mph.  Note:  Last week's heat wave in portions of Central Canada has been replaced with late winter like temperatures Today with 30s and 40s being reported in parts of Ontario and Manitoba Province.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow has spread into the Upper Midwest Today in wake of this past weekend's storm which was moving east across the Great Lakes and Eastern Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.  The next system which looks very impressive on the water vapor satellite This Afternoon was moving east across California.  Note:  This system could lead to a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes for the Central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Mississippi areas from Tuesday through Thursday.

Tonight:

Pop up showers will come to an end This Evening, skies through the night will remain partly to mostly cloudy with lows mainly in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the north, northwest, or east under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure will build in from the north.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 50s and 60s, cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather should continue for our area from Wednesday through Friday, May 25th-27th.  High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s, but it will stay cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Note:  Patchy frost could develop in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Night, Wednesday Night, and Thursday Night.

Quite a bit of uncertainty showing up in the computer models for the Memorial Day weekend, and these differences carry over into the middle of next week.  There are some indications that a SW 500mb flow may develop with an upper level trough in the Western U.S.  Very warm and humid air would start to spread north if this type of pattern develops.  Low pressure over the Rockies, Western High Plains region with a warm front extending E-NE of that low could also lead to some wet/stormy weather at times for this weekend into the early/middle part of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind becoming east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 53 to 58 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  66
Low:  43

Tuesday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    High
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:25 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:47 PM CDT

Tim