Monday, May 2, 2011

5/2/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:25 PM CDT, Monday, May 2nd, 2011

Weather headlines:

-Chilly night ahead
-Tuesday and Wednesday look nicer compared to recent days
-Next rain chance arrives late Wednesday Night
-Off an on rain chances late this week, possibly lasting into the weekend

Weather History:

On this date in 2002:  A record low temperature of 21 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Overcast skies with areas of flurries during the Morning gave way to clearing skies from north to south during the Afternoon.  The clearing line as of late Afternoon extended from the North Shore and Twin Ports, south to the I-35 corridor.  Highs Today were below average with 30s in Northwest Wisconsin, far Eastern Minnesota to the Arrowhead with 40s to around 50 degrees common in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Today north or northeast under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough extended from Central Canada through the Upper Midwest, Central-Southern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  Unseasonably cold air has pushed all the way south to Texas Today where high temperatures were only in the 50s and 60s.  Strong upper level winds of 130-150 knots remained in place from parts of the Central Plains to the Central-Eastern Great Lakes per RUC model with plenty of lingering cold air west and north of this jet stream. 

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

High pressure will push east out of the Northern Plains during this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies Tonight and Tomorrow will become mostly clear Tomorrow Night.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s Tonight, mainly in the 30s Tomorrow Night.  Highs Tuesday will be mainly in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Variable winds are expected through this period under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Wednesday, May 4th should remain dry in our area with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Moisture and a low level jet will increase Wednesday Night as a cold front moves east out of the Dakotas.  Some showers will likely spread into our area Wednesday Night with lows in the 30s and 40s.  The risk for showers will linger into Thursday Evening as low pressure and cold front pass through the Upper Midwest.  Forecast models continue to indicate some instability developing for Thursday Afternoon with CAPE values of 100-300 j/kg, this may support the development of a few thunderstorms Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Evening, but no severe weather is expected at this time.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Friday and Saturday, May 6th-7th will feature an area of low pressure moving east or east-southeast out of the Northern Rockies.  The computer models are not in very good agreement Today with how far north the rain will reach with this system for late Friday and Saturday.  The computer models remain in poor agreement from Sunday through early next week, May 8th-10th with the GFS model much more agressive compared to the EURO in bringing the next system into the Plains and Upper Midwest...The EURO has a blocking pattern developing which would delay this system until sometime the middle or end of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  Warmer compared to previous days.  High 53 to 58 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible late.  Low 40 to 43.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

.Thursday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible early.  Low 38 to 41.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63.

Tuesday's Pollen forecast:

Tree:     High
Grass:   None
Weed:  None

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  58
Low:  35

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:51 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:21 PM CDT

Tim