Friday, May 20, 2011

5/20/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:53 PM CDT, Friday, May 20th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 2009:  A record high temperature of 88 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1986:  A record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*72 degrees, high temperature so far Today at Duluth, MN.  1st time above 70 degrees since May 11th
*Periods of rain thru Monday
*Scattered thunderstorm risk Saturday and Sunday
*Frost potential the middle of next week?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1002mb was centered in Western South Dakota This Afternoon.  The airmass ahead of this storm consists of dewpoints in the 50s, PWS of 1.00-1.40" with 850 mb td's of +8 to +10 degrees C.  Some rain showers have been affecting Western-Southern parts of our area Today while the rest of us remained dry for one more day.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered the area Today with highs in the 60s and 70s with cooler 50s around the head of Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the east or southeast at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southerly 500mb flow was in place from the Central Plains to Upper Midwest as a large upper level low/trough churns it's way through the Northern-Central Rockies and Western High Plains.

Tonight:

Mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with areas of rain through the night, the bulk of the rain should fall along and west of Highway 53, with lesser chances for rain east of there.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with east or southeast winds under 20 mph.

Saturday and SatSaurday Night:

Low pressure averaging 997mb will be spinning around across the Dakotas during this period.  Abundant moisture and forcing will be in place out ahead of this system, and this will lead to periods of rain in our area through Saturday Evening, with the majority of the rain lifting into Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead by Saturday Night.  Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night mainly in Western-Southern areas.  Mostly cloudy skies can be expected for Saturday and Saturday Night with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the southeast or east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will move east out of the Northern Plains on Sunday, this low will pass through the Upper Midwest late this weekend.  More showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Sunday Night.  Still doesn't appear there will be any threat for severe weather for our area either Saturday or Sunday, but instability could be somewhat higher Sunday Afternoon compared to Saturday, so a strong thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out, especially in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly Eastcentral Minnesota.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Low pressure scoots off to our E/NE for Monday with a cold front dropping south across our area.  Showers are possible area-wide on Monday with dry weather returning for Monday Night.  A pretty chilly airmass will build into the Upper Midwest for next Tuesday and Wednesday and there is a threat for some patchy frost Tuesday Night and again Wednesday Night.

Note:  Rainfall totals in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tonight through Monday should be in the one 0.50-1.50" range with localized higher amounts.

Note:  Areas of fog could develop Tonight right through Sunday, the fog could be dense at times, especially near Lake Superior.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Areas of fog possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain with areas of fog.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain early.  Scattered showers late.  Areas of fog.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog possible.  Occasional showers, mainly during the Afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 55 to 60.

.Monday Night...  Decreasing cloudiness.  Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 51 to 56.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  65
Low:  42

Saturday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:27 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:44 PM CDT

Tim