Thursday, May 19, 2011

5/19/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Thursday, May 19th, 2011

30 day outlook for June 2011.  Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, May 19th, 2011.

For Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for below average temperatures with a 33% chance for above average precipitation.

90 day outlook for June-August 2011.  Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, May 19th, 2011.

For Duluth, Minnesota:

33% chance for below average temperatures with equal chances for below average, near, or above average precipitation.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

-Today marks the 4th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees.  October 7th-10th, 2011 was the last time this happened.
-Today marks the 5th consecutive day without precipitation.  The end of March (27th-30th) was the last time we put together at least 4 days with 0.00" of precip.
-May precipitation total (thru the 18th)  0.62" which is 0.92" below average. 
-11 days so far in May with at least a trace of precipitation.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-A few showers into Friday
-Higher chances for rain Friday Night into Saturday Night
-Scattered rain for Sunday
-Near to above average temperatures thru Sunday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with a couple light rain showers or sprinkles affecting far Northern-Northeast Minnesota.  Highs Today were in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s closer to Lake Superior.  Dewpoints were in the middle 40s to middle 50s Today with PWS near an inch, so alot more moisture in the air compared to the past few days.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb lows covered the Central Rockies and Northeast U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.  80-110 knot mid/upper level winds were lifting northeast out of the Southwest U.S. Today and this is aiding in the development of supercell thunderstorms This Afternoon in parts of the Central Plains.  Pockets of very warm temperatures were located in Central Canada (70s and 80s) and in the Southern U.S. (80s and 90s) sandwiched in between were temperatures that are pretty close to average for this time of year.

Tonight:

Could see a few showers This Evening, mainly in Northern Minnesota where there is some instability that has developed late This Afternoon.  CAPES were <500 j/kg with Lifted Indices around -2 degrees C per meso-analysis.  A more unstable airmass was found just north-northeast of Lake Superior Today where CAPES have climbed to 1000-2000 j/kg, this could cause a few stronger thunderstorms This Evening just N/NE of Lake Superior, but that activity should not affect our local area.  Lows Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in the 40s to lower 50s with some 30s in a few spots near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure currently in Southeast Colorado will lift into the Northern Plains during this period.  Southerly low level winds will continue to draw moisture north into our area while additional moisture approaches from the east.  Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will continue with PWS of 1.00-1.25".  Isolated showers cannot be ruled out Friday into Friday Evening, but the better chances for more organized rain will begin Friday Night, with the rain spreading in from the southwest.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow with highs in the 60s and 70s except for cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night under mostly cloudy skies will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will move into the Dakotas for Saturday and Saturday Night.  A 30-40 knot low level jet, dewpoints away from Lake Superior in the 50s to around 60 degrees, PWS of 1.25-1.50", and 850mb td's of +8 to +12 degrees C combined with forcing associated with that surface low and approaching upper level trough will lead to some rain in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Saturday and Saturday Night.  Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well with a threat for some heavy downpours, but no severe weather is expected in our area due to a limited amount of instability that is forecast to be in place.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.

Sunday and Sunday Night, May 22nd:  Low pressure and upper level trough will move into the Upper Midwest.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible across our area during this period.  Thunderstorm threat may increase on Sunday if some clearing can take place which would lead to higher amounts of instability with CAPES possibly as high as 1000 j/kg in some areas with Lifted Indices around -2 to -3 degrees C.  Shear doesn't look all that strong at the moment, and the low level jet and mid level winds are lacking for a big severe weather threat for our area, but there might be a few strong thunderstorms Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Evening, especially in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly in Eastcentral Minnesota.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Sunday Night in the 40s and 50s.

Note:  Areas of low clouds and fog could develop at times from late Tonight through Saturday Night near Lake Superior.  The fog if it develops could become locally dense.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy late night fog possible.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  Patchy low clouds or fog possible near Lake Superior.  High 63 to 68 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Occasional showers developing Overnight.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Occasional rain.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain.  Patchy fog.  Low 45 to 50.

.Sunday...  Variable cloudiness.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.  High 60 to 65.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  65
Low:  41

Friday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:28 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:42 PM CDT

Tim