Wednesday, May 18, 2011

5/18/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:22 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 18th, 2011

Low temperature report for Wednesday, May 18th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Hibbing, MN:  27 degrees
Ashland, WI:  30 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  30 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  28 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  28 degrees
Superior, WI:  30 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  25 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  29 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  28 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  28 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1998:  A record high temperature of 85 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Brief shower/sprinkle risk for some areas This Evening
-Slight rain chances into Friday
-Increased risk for some off an on rain Friday Night thru Sunday
-One day break from the east wind on Sunday?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Sunny skies during the Morning has given way to increasing Afternoon cloudiness from east to west with the most sunshine late This Afternoon confined to Northern areas of Minnesota.  There are some radar echoes pushing in from the east This Afternoon, but nothing more than a few sprinkles or brief light rain showers have been occurring in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and parts of Northwest Wisconsin since dewpoints were only in the 20s and 30s Today, but deeper moisture is approaching from the east Today with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s as close as Central Wisconsin and Central Upper Michigan.  High temperatures Today were in the 60s and 70s with upper 40s and 50s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb lows covered the Central Rockies and portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  H5 flow in the Upper Midwest continued to be out of the east Today with a pocket of very warm temperatures (near 80 degrees) trapped to our north in Central Canada.  A 120 knot upper level jet was undercutting the large upper trough over the Rockies Today and this pocket of stronger winds aloft will be spreading into the Central Plains thru Friday and may help to ignite some severe thunderstorms in coming days.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows in the 30s and 40s.  A few sprinkles or light rain showers will be possible before Midnight, but nothing significant is expected.  Winds will be out of the east under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

A few showers could develop in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the Afternoon and Evening hours, but coverage should be pretty spotty, and none of the showers are expected to be very heavy.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with highs in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Extended Forecast:

Moisture will be on the increase Friday and Saturday with PWS of 1.00-1.25", 850mb td's of +8 to +12 degrees C, and dewpoints away from Lake Superior in the 50s to low 60s.  Low pressure will head north out of the Westcentral Plains late this week and should move into the Northern Plains this weekend.  A 30-40 knot southerly low level jet will develop ahead of this system from late Friday into Saturday and this combined with the forcing associated with the surface system and upper level trough should lead to some rain across our area from Friday Night into Saturday Night.  Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well especially Saturday and Saturday Night, but instability looks to be on the low side this far north.  High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Sunday and Sunday Night, May 22nd:  Low pressure will be centered to our west-northwest during this period.  The computer models are showing that a W-SW wind will develop on Sunday, and if this happens then high temperatures will likely be in the 60s and 70s in Downtown Duluth and Superior.  The risk for additional showers and scattered thunderstorms will also exist during this period, in fact the thunder potential may increase a bit on Sunday as instability comes up a bit compared to Saturday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight...  A few sprinkles possible before 9 PM.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 61 to 66 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 43 to 48.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain.  Low 45 to 50.

.Sunday...  Variable cloudiness.  Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  65
Low:  41

Thursday's Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    High
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:29 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:41 PM CDT

Tim