Sunday, May 1, 2011

5/1/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:30 PM CDT, Sunday, May 1st, 2011

Note:  1.11" of rain fell at Duluth, Minnesota on Saturday, April 30th, 2011.  This was our first 1" or greater precipitation total since October 26th, 2010 (2.94") which by the way was when the historic Great Lakes Cyclone was hitting the area.

*Record Event*

Record 24 hour precipitation total at International Falls, Minnesota on Saturday April 30th, 2011.  0.75" of precipitation fell on Saturday which broke the previous record of 0.69" set in 2010.

Precipitation report for Saturday, April 30th, 2011.  Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls, MN:  0.70"
Brainerd, MN:  0.60"
Grand Marais, MN:  0.60"
Hibbing, MN:  0.98"
Hayward, WI:  0.34"
Bruno, MN:  0.96"
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  0.89"
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.63"
12 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN:  1.00"
Northome, MN:  0.91"
Embarrass, MN:  0.58"
Finland, MN:  0.75"
Upson, WI:  0.34"
Solon Springs, WI:  0.54"
Webster, WI:  0.65"

A significant winter storm hit portions of North Dakota on Saturday, April 30th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Bismarck, ND.

Grassy Butte, ND:  13.0"
Hallidy, ND:  10.7"
Mandan, ND:  8.0"
Dunn Center, ND:  6.5"
Beulah, ND:  6.0"
Watford, ND:  4.1"
Willison, ND:  5.9"
Minot, ND:  3.3"
Bismarck, ND:  1.7"

Tornado stats for April 2011.  Source:  SPC and TWC

-871 preliminary tornado reports in the U.S. for April, 2011
-Average number of tornadoes for April is 163
-April 2011 had 11 MAJOR severe weather outbreaks in the U.S.

Additional information on the historic tornado outbreak from April 27th, 2011:  Source:  Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times

*263 preliminary tornado reports from last Wednesday
*2 EF-5 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service.  The last time this happened was in 1990
*20 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes from last Wednesday's outbreak
*1925, the last time the U.S. suffered more tornado deaths than 2011

May climate information for Duluth, MN.

Average monthly temperature:  51.8 degrees
Average precipitation:  2.95"
Average snowfall:  0.2"

Average high temperature is 57 degrees on the 1st, warming to 68 degrees on the 31st.
Average low temperature is 35 degrees on the 1st, warming to 45 degrees on the 31st.

Note:  The U.S. averages 322 tornadoes during the month of May

*Updated May, 2011 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center*

For Duluth, Minnesota:  33% chance for Above Normal Precipitation and Below Normal Temperatures

Weather headlines:

-Cold and quite windy Tonight
-Flurries or sprinkles into Monday
-Temperatures get back toward average levels by Tuesday
-Next rain threat arrives mid to late week, another system possible for next weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure of 996mb has moved into Northern Ontario Province early This Evening.  Unseasonably cold temperatures and gusty west winds of 15 to 35 mph occurred across our area Today with highs only in the 30s which is 20+ degrees below average for the 1st of May.  Most of the day was gray with a scattering of snow flurries and sprinkles with a light dusting of accumulation in parts of Northern Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Weather pattern is repeating itself once again, minus a historic tornado outbreak this time around.  A stalled front from Southern Texas to the Ohio Valley combined with 60+ degree dewpoints and PWS >1.40" is triggering another round of heavy rainfall and some severe weather Today across parts of the Southern Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley while a robust jet stream with 140 knot winds cover the Central-Northern Great Lakes, this strong jet stream has been very common of late and seperates 90 and 100 degree heat in South Texas to winterish like 20s and 30s in parts of Minnesota Today.

Tonight:

Mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow flurries will be found in our local area with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10-25 mph

Monday and Monday Night:

High pressure heads into the Upper Midwest during this period with a cold airmass lingering overhead.  850mb temperatures will range from -6 to -12 degrees C with highs Tomorrow mainly in the 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s.  A considerable amount of clouds should continue on Monday with some clearing developing for Monday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday, May 3rd will probably be one the nicer days of the week with fairly light winds, some sunshine and high temperatures rebounding into the 50s.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s.  Wednesday through Friday, May 4th-6th could turn wet at times as low pressure and a cold front combined with an upper level trough move into the Upper Midwest.  There will be some showers from Wednesday through Friday and isolated Afternoon thunderstorms are also possible each day.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Wednesday Night in the 30s and 40s.

Another system may target the area next weekend, May 7th-8th, but the track of this low is being handled differently by the computer models Today.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy and breezy.  Occasional snow flurries.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Morning snow flurries possible.  Cool.  High 41 to 46.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 52 to 57 but it could turn cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday...  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 43.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

Duluth/Superior water temperature as of April 29th, 2011:  34 degrees

Pollen count for Monday:

Tree:     High
Grass:   None
Weed:   None

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  58
Low:  35

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:52 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:20 PM CDT

Tim