Wednesday, April 6, 2011

4/6/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:34 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 6th, 2011

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

*Warmest high temperature so far in 2011:  52 degrees on February 16th.
*Warmest high temperature so far in April, 2011:  48 degrees on the 2nd.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A fairly typical spring day with a band of low clouds and some fog near Lake Superior with some patchy cumulus clouds farther inland.  Highs ranged from the 30s along the North Shore through the Twin Ports area with milder 50s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of south or east under 15 mph.  Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1014mb in Central Ontario Province with a 1010mb high centered in Southwest Nebraska.  A cold front stretched from Central Oklahoma to far Northern Ohio.  Note:  Temperatures south of this front were in the 80s and 90s Today.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery indicates a near zonal flow (west-east) in the Upper Midwest with a strong upper level jet >120 knots extending from the Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. with a seperate branch of strong winds aloft (near 90 knots) covering the Southwest U.S. which was out ahead of a fairly vigorous disturbance that covered Western Arizona This Afternoon.

Tonight:

A few light showers could develop before Midnight as a weak disturbance moves through.  There was actually some instability building to our west This Afternoon with CAPES of a couple hundred j/kg along with steep lapse rates >7.0 c/km, this instability could help pop an isolated thunderstorm early Tonight mainly in Northern or Northwestern Minnesota.  Patchy fog will likely linger especially near Lake Superior Tonight.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with south or east winds under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 40s and 50s, might even see a 60 degree reading in a few locations.  Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the south, west, or east under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A deep trough will head out of the Western U.S. and into the Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes this weekend into early next week.  It appears that there will be more than one surface low that ejects out of this upper trough instead of just one main low pressure system.  Looks like there will be some showers in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Saturday into Monday, but at the moment it appears that the heavier rain along with a scattered thunderstorm risk will be to our south based on latest model trends.  High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Patchy fog.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 28 to 32.  Wind east to southeast around 12 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  Warmest day of April and for 2011 thus far?  High 53 to 58 but it may be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 32 to 35.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 34 to 38.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 37 to 40.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 43 to 48.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  44
Low:  25

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:37 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:46 PM CDT

Tim