Thursday, April 28, 2011

4/28/11: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:00 PM CDT, Thursday, April 28th, 2011

Amazing, but deadly tornado outbreak hit parts of the Southern U.S. on Wednesday, April 27th, 2011.  Preliminary tornado count is up to 171 as of late This Afternoon.  Note:  This is just a preliminary number and will likely go up or down in coming days.

Death toll from Wednesday is up to 280 per TWC report.

Alabama:   195 fatalities
Tennessee:   34 fatalities
Mississippi:  32 fatalities
Georgia:      14 fatalities
Virginia:         5 fatalities

Note:  April 27th, 2011 may go down as being one of the top 5 deadliest tornado days in U.S. history.

A massive amount of severe weather during the past few days.  Source:  SPC.

April 24th, 2011:  203 severe weather reports/15 tornadoes
April 25th, 2011:  438 severe weather reports/44 tornadoes
April 26th, 2011:  720 severe weather reports/68 tornadoes
April 27th, 2011:  754 severe weather reports/171 tornadoes

4 day total:  2,115 severe weather reports/298 tornadoes

Weather headlines:

-Quiet weather Tonight and Friday
-Near to above average temperatures in store for Friday
-Rain arrives Friday Night and lingers thru Saturday
-Isolated thunderstorm risk late Friday Night and again Saturday Afternoon

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep low pressure of 986mb has moved into Western Quebec Province late This Afternoon.  Moisture wrapping around that low caused an area of rain or mixed rain and snow in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Morning into the early Afternoon hours, but as the Afternoon wore on skies cleared out from north to south with high temperatures pushing into the 50s with even a few lower 60s in the Brainerd and Aitkin, MN areas.  Winds Today were out of the north or northwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous 500mb trough/low was moving slowly toward the south/east through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  A brief upper level ridge/westerly 500mb was pushing east into the Northern Plains while the next system with it's potent H5 low/trough digs south/east into the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Skies will become clear to partly cloudy as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  Lows will be in the 30s with westerly winds under 15 mph.

Friday:

Partly cloudy to mostly sunny are expected with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s, but it will turn cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Friday Night:

Low pressure moves into the Northern and Central Plains.  50-70 knot southerly 850mb jet develops out ahead of this system with warm/moist advection lifting north into Minnesota.  Elevated instability will move in from the southwest with CAPES approaching 100 j/kg.  Rain will develop and move in from the southwest with isolated thunderstorms possible as well due to the strong low level jet/warm-moist advection pattern.  Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s are forecast Tomorrow Night with south or east winds at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure of 988-993mb will pass west-north of our area Saturday and Sunday.  Cold front attached to that low will push east and through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday.  Occasional rain through early Afternoon will give way to a scattering of showers and isolated thunderstorms from mid to late Afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit out ahead of a potent disturbance which will approach the area from the Dakotas.  Thunderstorm threat for Saturday Afternoon will be somewhat greater if we can clear out a bit, right now that doesn't look very likely, so any storm that develops should be few and far between.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s.  A big push of cold air advection will move into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Night and Sunday behind this system with 850mb temperatures dropping to -4 to -12 degrees C! Lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Sunday only in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the teens in Northern Minnesota with 20s to around 30 degrees elsewhere.  The period from Saturday Night through Sunday Night look mainly dry at this time, but a few showers of rain or snow can't be ruled out especially in Northern areas of Minnesota.

Note:  Rainfall totals of one quarter to one half inch are still expected Friday Night and Saturday across our area with localized greater amounts of around 0.75"

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest to west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Occasional rain developing after 11 PM.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 38 to 42.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Occasional rain during the Morning along with patchy fog.  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered Afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms.  High 45 to 50.

.Saturday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 41 to 46.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 27 to 32.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  56
Low:  34

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:57 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:16 PM CDT

Tim