Sunday, April 24, 2011

4/24/11: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:04 PM CDT, Sunday, April 24th, 2011

High temperature report for Sunday, April 24th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  60 degrees
International Falls, MN:  62 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  64 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  61 degrees
Ashland, WI:  65 degrees
Hayward, WI:  60 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  63 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  63 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  63 degrees
Superior, WI:  63 degrees
Phillips, WI:  61 degrees

Weather tidbits for Duluth, MN:

*Today marked the first time since April 12th with a maximum temperature of at least 60 degrees.
*Today marked the first time since April 13th with an above average high temperature.

Weather Headlines:

-A few showers up north This Evening and again Monday Afternoon
-Rest of the area stays dry into Monday
-Potent/slow moving storm moves toward the area Monday Night with lingering effects into mid-week
-Strong E/NE winds develop by early Tuesday and continue thru Wednesday near Lake Superior
-Rain and possible snow for parts of our area Tuesday and Wednesday
-Another storm lined up for next weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The combination of cold air aloft (500mb temps around -25 degrees C) mid level lapse rates around 7.0 c/km and some heating at the surface led to scattered Afternoon showers across Northern Minnesota Today with rainfall amounts of a trace to a few hundreths of an inch.  The rest of our area stayed dry Today.  Temperatures were finally above average for late April with highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with southwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W-SW 500mb flow covered the region Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Strong jet stream winds >110 knots were in place over portions of Eastern Canada and in parts of the Western U.S. with an active frontal boundary stalled out from Northern Texas to the Ohio Valley with clusters of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms occurring near and along this boundary for the second day in a row.

Tonight:

Spotty showers in far Northern Minnesota will end before 10 PM with dry conditions occurring for the rest of the night.  Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s with partly to at times mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the southwest under 20 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

A cold front off to our north will turn stationary while high pressure heads off to our east.  Low pressure will track from the Southcentral Plains toward Northern Missouri by early Tuesday Morning.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast on Monday with a few showers possible during the Afternoon in Northern Minnesota.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s, but onshore winds will eventually develop near Lake Superior during the Afternoon which will result in falling temperatures along the North and South Shore.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected for Monday Night with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Southwest winds on Monday will become easterly at 10-20 mph by Monday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday and Tuesday Night, April 26th:  Strong area of low pressure averaging 994mb will move into Southern-Eastcentral Wisconsin with high pressure centered to our northeast.  Pressure gradient will tighten up between the low and high which will result in gusty east-northeast winds especially near Lake Superior.  Today's forecast models are showing 850mb wind speeds increasing to 40-55 knots in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota and this could result in wind gusts >40 mph near Lake Superior Tuesday and Tuesday Night.  The high to our northeast will advect dry air southwest into our area, while the low to our S-SE tries to bring some moisture north into our area.  We've seen this type of scenario play out many many times during the past few months, and usually the dry air wins out with a sharp cut-off in the precipitation.  At this time it appears that Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota have the best chance for getting some rain during this period while dry conditions hold on in Northern Minnesota through the Arrowhead.  Dynamic/evaportive cooling may cause the rain to mix with or even turn to sleet or wet snow at times, especially by Tuesday Night in Northwest Wisconsin.  It's possible that there will be some slushy snow accumulation, mainly on grassy surfaces Tuesday Night in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s in Northern Minnesota with 30s and 40s elsewhere.  Lows Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 30s.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night, April 27th:  Low pressure at the surface and aloft will park itself over the Western Great Lakes with a continued chance for rain and or snow showers in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions for Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s.

Another storm may affect the region during the Friday Night-Sunday, April 29th-May 1st time frame.  Plenty of model differences are showing up, however, in regards to the intensity and track of this system.  We could see some rain at times this weekend, and there might even be some snow that mixes in with the rain toward Sunday or Sunday Night (the 1st day of May) as colder air wraps around the surface low.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63 but turning cooler near Lake Superior during the Afternoon.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday...  Windy and colder.  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible during the Afternoon.  High 40 to 45.  Wind east at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or snow possible.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 40 to 45.  Wind northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  54
Low:  33

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:04 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:10 PM CDT

Tim