Friday, April 22, 2011

4/22/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Friday, April 22nd, 2011

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

*9, the number of days since our last above average high temperature and the number of days since our last 50+ degree day
*Average monthly temperature (thru the 21st) 37.6 degrees/0.7 degrees above average

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record high temperature of 80 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Headlines:

*Rain re-develops This Evening
*Some snow could mix with the rain in some areas Overnight
*Sunday still looks like the better day of the weekend
*Major model differences showing up for next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Part one of this two part storm affected our area last night and early Today.  Light rain with amounts generally under 0.10" were found in portions of the area with 0.04" the official rain total at Duluth, Minnesota.  This lead disturbance pushed off to our east This Morning, widespread clouds lingered through the day as we await the main part of the storm which was over South Dakota This Afternoon.  Rain was starting to increase at mid-Afternoon in portions of Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota as forcing associated with the Northern Plains low spreads east into the Upper Midwest.  Highs Today ranged from the middle 30s to lower 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 40s to lower 50s farther inland.  Winds Today were out of the east or southeast at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Vigorous 500mb low and upper level trough with 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls was moving east out of the Northern Plains This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  A strong temperature gradient was in place Today which is adding fuel to this storm.  Afternoon 850mb temps ranged from -2 degrees C at International Falls, Minnesota to +6 degrees C at Sioux Falls, South Dakota to +14 degrees C at Wichita, Kansas.  Surface temperatures ranged from the 80s in Southeast Kansas and Northern Arkansas with 30s in portions of North Dakota.

Tonight:

Low pressure will track east out of South Dakota while another low heads northeast from Northern Missouri.  PWS of around 1/2" combined with warm advection and some decent forcing will cause widespread rain in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight.  Dynamic cooling along with 850mb temperatures around -2 degrees C might be enough to allow the rain to mix with and change to snow late Tonight in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s with east or north winds at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure will reach Northern LOWER Michigan/Eastern UPPER Michigan area Tomorrow Morning, the low will then move into Eastern Canada Tomorrow Afternoon.  Lingering rain showers are possible across our area behind this low on Saturday and some snow could mix with the rain in some areas Tomorrow Morning.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Dry weather will return to the area Saturday Night with lows mainly in the 30s.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies are forecast Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10-20 mph during this period.

Note:  Precipitation totals of 0.10-0.35" are expected by Saturday Morning in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized higher amounts of 0.50".  Snowfall totals of 1-2" are possible late Tonight and early Saturday in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in far Northern Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast:

Sunday and Monday look dry at this time as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest.  Temperatures will finally moderate back toward average, perhaps even a few degrees above average with highs in the 50s to lower 60s for Sunday and Monday.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 30s Sunday Night and Monday Night.  Lots of model differences showing up from Tuesday-Thursday of next week, April 26th-28th.  Two seperate lows are expected to develop in the Southern-Central Plains with both lows heading northeast into the Great Lakes.  How far west/northwest these lows track will determine just how much precipitation falls in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures look warm enough for rain if these storms hit us, although the EUROPEAN model looks cold enough to possibly support a snow/rain mixture with that second storm for Wednesday-Thursday.  Note:  The 00z and 12z EUROPEAN model from Today is showing another very large and potent storm across the Central Plains/Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next weekend, April 30th-May 2nd.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Rain.  Patchy fog.  Rain could become mixed with snow Overnight.  Low 32 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming north to northeast after Midnight.

.Saturday...  Scattered rain showers.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Easter Sunday...  Warmer.  First time above 50 since April 13th.  Partly sunny.  High 52 to 57.

.Sunday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  52
Low:  32

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:07 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:08 PM CDT

Tim