Friday, April 1, 2011

4/1/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:51 PM CDT, Friday, April 1st, 2011

Weather Headlines:

-Lingering rain/snow showers early Tonight
-Nice Saturday ahead
-Storm arrives late Saturday Night with lingering effects thru early Monday
-Greatest snowfall expected to be north of the Twin Ports with the storm this weekend

Snowfall report for Friday, April 1st, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

4 miles south of Sawyer, MN (Carlton county)  2.8"
3 miles southwest of Bruno, MN (Pine county)  2.5"
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton county)  2.5"
3 miles east of Superior, WI (Douglas county)  2.1"
Beaver Bay, MN (Lake county)  2.0"
4 miles southwest of Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)  2.0"
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas county)  2.0"
Gordon, WI (Douglas county)  1.9"
Ely, MN (St. Louis county)  1.8"
3 miles east of Wright, MN (Carlton county)  1.3"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  1.8" measured at the NWS.

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*March 2011 tied for 33rd driest and 35th least snowiest on record at Duluth, Minnesota.
*March 2011 was the 10th driest and 11th least snowiest on record and also was the 39th coldest on record at International Falls, Minnesota.

Weather History:

On this date last year, a record high temperature of 62 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure which brought a few inches of snow to portions of our area early This Morning has pulled off to the southeast late Today, but a disturbance and surface trough lagging behind the low kept skies on the cloudy side with scattered showers of rain and wet snow also occurring.  Areas of dense fog developed as well Today especially around the Twin Ports area, especially away from Lake Superior.  Highs Today were in the 30s with west, northwest, or south winds under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow continued across the Upper Midwest with a powerful jet stream >130 knots in place for the 3rd day in a row from Southwestern Canada through the Northern Rockies into portions of the Central Plains per RUC model analysis.  This jet stream is helping to seperate an early spring heat wave in the Southwest U.S. to cooler temperatures in the Upper Midwest.  Note:  Widespread 80 and 90 degree temperatures were found from the Southwest U.S. to Southern Oklahoma and Texas Today with +20 to +26 degree C 850mb temperatures in the Southwest U.S. to -4 degree C H85 temps in Northern Minnesota.

Tonight:

Scattered rain or snow showers will end from northwest to southeast This Evening as an upper level disturbance and surface trough exit the area.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with patchy fog possible.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the west or northwest under 20 mph.

Saturday:

A tranquil spring day with partly to mostly sunny skies along with near to slightly above average temperatures for early April.  Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with west or northwest winds up to 20 mph.

Saturday Night:

Strong area of low pressure of 988-990mb will track through the Northern Rockies and Western High Plains.  Warm advection induced precipitation will break out north and northeast of this low with precipitation spreading into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin after Midnight.  850mb temperatures ranging from around zero degrees C in southern areas to around -4 degrees C in Northern Minnesota will result in mainly snow for our area as the precipitation moves in.  Some sleet or rain could mix in with the snow, however, especially from Brainerd and Hinckley, east to Hayward and Park Falls.  Skies will become cloudy Tomorrow Night with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will turn to the southeast or east at 10-20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Strong area of low pressure averaging 994mb will move from the Southern South Dakota/Northern Nebraska area Sunday Morning, across Northern Iowa, to Southeast Wisconsin by late Sunday Night.  This low pressure system will bring a variety of precipitation types to our area for Sunday and Sunday Night.  Note:  There has been a rather dramatic shift to the north in the computer models during the past 24 hours in regards to the storm track, as a result warmer air will likely head farther north which will create precipitation type issues.

At this time it appears that Northern Minnesota through the Arrowhead of Minnesota will remain cold enough for a snow event while warming temperatures result in snow mixing with rain farther south.  This mixed precipitation could become all rain on Sunday, especially along and south of a line from Leader to Moose Lake, Minnesota, including most of Northwest Wisconsin.

The heaviest snowfall accumulation of 4-8" is forecast to be in Northern and far Northeast Minnesota based on latest model projections.  A few inches of slushy snow could also fall late Saturday Night/Sunday Morning in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota before the precipitation mixes with or changes to rain.

Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s with some 40s in southern areas.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Extended Forecast:

Strong area of low pressure along with a vigorous upper level trough will exit to our east on Monday, some lingering snow showers and flurries along with blustery northwest winds will be found in our area on Monday behind this storm.  Dry conditions should return Monday Night through Tuesday Night.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Monday Night generally in the 20s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Scattered rain or snow showers This Evening under mostly cloudy skies.  Becoming partly to mostly cloudy late.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 41 to 46.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Snow developing Overnight.  Accumulations around 1" possible by dawn.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Occasional snow and rain.  Total snowfall accumulations around 2".  High 34 to 37.

.Sunday Night...  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Some rain possible early.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Monday...  Snow showers or flurries possible, mostly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

.Monday Night...  Decreasing cloudiness.  Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  42
Low:  23

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:47 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:39 PM CDT

Tim