Tuesday, March 8, 2011

3/8/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 8:06 PM CST, Tuesday, March 8th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*Final subzero low temperature last winter at Duluth, Minnesota occurred on February 26th.  March 2nd could be our final one for this winter unless we get another arctic push sometime this month.

*A large temperature contrast in our area last night.  Bigfork, Minnesota fell to a Morning low of -15 degrees while Phillips, Wisconsin had a low temperature of 28 degrees.  Note:  It's about a 5 hour drive from Bigfork to Phillips.

Low temperature report for Tuesday, March 8th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -11 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -13 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -15 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  -8 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -11 degrees
Northome, MN:  -11 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -10 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -12 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High temperatures were in the upper 20s and 30s in our area Today with a few southern locales getting into the lower 40s!  Partly to mostly cloudy skies along with easterly winds under 15 mph were common Today.  Surface map as of 7 PM featured low pressure of 1008mb in Northeast Oklahoma.  A trough extended from Western Minnesota to Eastern South Dakota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low along the Southern Nebraska-Northern Kansas state line early This Evening was moving E/NE per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level trough covered the Central-Northern Plains and Upper Midwest while southern flank of this H5 trough combined with moist and unstable air is leading to a flood and severe weather threat Tonight over the Arklatex region.

Tonight:

Skies will become mostly cloudy across our area as low pressure heads northeast from the Southern Plains.  This low will reach Western areas of Illinois by Wednesday Morning.  Snow associated with this low will lift north and should reach a Pine City, Minnesota to Park Falls, Wisconsin line Overnight.  A seperate area of snow associated with an inverted trough over the Eastern Dakotas will move toward the east Tonight, but as it moves east it should decrease in intensity.  Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with east or northeast winds under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will move from Western Illinois to Easter lower Michigan during this period while an inverted trough slides east through the Upper Midwest.  Some snow will likely fall across Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday due to the low and trough while areas of light snow and flurries occur in Northern-Eastern Minnesota.  The snow will end from west to east Wednesday Afternoon/Evening.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 20s and 30s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Tomorrow Night with lows in the teens and 20s.  Northeast winds will become north to northwest at 10-20 mph during this period.

Total snowfall accumulations by early Wednesday Evening should be in the 1-4" range across Northwest Wisconsin with the highest amounts occurring from Park Falls through Phillips and Ogema.  Snow accumulations should only be a dusting up to 1" for Northern and Eastern Minnesota.

Note:  A winter weather advisory is in effect for Price county Wisconsin from 12 AM Tonight until 6 PM CST Wednesday.  This includes the cities of:  Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...Kennan WI...and Ogema WI.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday through Friday Morning look quiet across our area with temperatures close to average for this time of year.  Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 30s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.  Plenty of model differences showing up for Friday-Saturday regarding the next storm system that may affect our area.  The models are having issues from one run to the next.  The last few runs per GFS model has much of Northern Minnesota including the Twin Ports getting 6+" of snow late Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning as low pressure drops east-southeast out of the Northern Plains.  The GEM-GLOBAL has the low on a much more northerly track which would result in some showers of snow/rain and light snowfall accumulations at best.  The EUROPEAN has been bouncing around from the southern GFS solution to the GEM's northern solution, but the latest run (12z) has the low tracking right over the Twin Ports Saturday Morning.  Most of Friday should remain dry across our area, then precipitation either in the form of snow, or rain and snow turning to snow will be possible Friday Evening through Saturday Morning.  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s, but some 40s...perhaps even a few 50s could occur in Southern areas depending on how this storm evolves late this week.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the 20s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light snow or flurries possible.  Total accumulations under 1".  High 30 to 33.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 18 to 23.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.

.Friday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Snow or rain possible.  Low 25 to 30.

.Saturday...  Snow showers or flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  31
Low:  14

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:34 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   6:06 PM CST

Tim