Monday, March 7, 2011

3/7/11: Monday's Weather Report. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE INFORMATION

Issued at 4:17 PM CST, Monday, March 7th, 2011

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING*

A lake effect snow warning is in effect until 12 AM CST Tonight for Southern Cook county in Northeast Minnesota.  Some cities included in the warning are:  Tofte MN...Lutsen MN...Grand Marais MN...Hovland MN...and Grand Portage MN.

Impacts:  Lake effect snow showers, heavy at times will continue in the Arrowhead of Minnesota through the Evening before tapering off to flurries after Midnight.  Another 2-4" of accumulation is possible before Midnight which will bring storm totals to 5-10".  Visibilities will drop to a half mile or less in the heavier snow showers.  Travel will be difficult with snow covered roads.

A lake effect snow warning means significant amounts of lake effect snow accumulation are expected that will make travel very hazardous or impossible.  It is common for lake effect snow accumulations and snowfall rates to vary greatly over very short distances.  Some locations may receive one to several inches of snow per hour for a period of several hours.  Strong winds are likely to cause blowing and drifting snow.  Near zero mile visibility may occur in the heaviest snow showers.  If you must travel be aware that you may become stranded and that it may take many hours for help to arrive.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY*

A lake effect snow advisory is in effect until 12 AM CST Tonight for Lake county in Northeast Minnesota.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Knife River MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...Little Marais MN...Finland MN...Isabella MN...Nor Shore Junction MN...and Wales MN.

Impacts:  Lake effect snow showers will continue This Evening with additional accumulations of 2-4".  Storm totals will range from 3-6".  Visibilities will drop to a half mile or less in the heavier snow showers.  Expect snow covered and slippery roads with difficult driving conditions in some areas.

A lake effect snow advisory means lake effect snow is expected that will make travel difficult in some areas.  Use caution when driving and allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER STORM WATCH*

A winter storm watch is in effect from late Tuesday Night through Wednesday Evening for Price county in Northwest Wisconsin.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...Catawba WI...Ogema WI...and Spirit WI.

Impacts:  Low pressure lifting northeast out of the Southern Plains will bring snow to Northern Wisconsin from late Tuesday Night through Wednesday Evening.  The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur on Wednesday.  The potential exists for accumulations to reach 6" in the watch area by Wednesday Evening.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow, sleet, or ice that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet, or NOAA weather radio.

*Snowfall totals from Sunday and early Monday, March 6th-7th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

1 mile south of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas county)  3.8"
Pillager, MN (Cass county)  3.7"
5 miles south of Danbury, WI (Burnett county)  3.2"
Trade Lake, WI (Burnett county)  3.0"
Upson, WI (Iron county)  3.0"
3 miles north of Pine City, MN (Pine county)  3.0"
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  2.8"
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN (St. Louis county)  2.6"
South Range, WI (Douglas county)  2.5"
Northome, MN (Koochiching county)  2.4"
Babbitt, MN (St. Louis county)  2.2"
Ashland, WI (Ashland county)  2.2"
Cass Lake, MN (Cass county)  2.0"
Walker, MN (Cass county)  2.0"
Bayfield, WI (Bayfield county)  2.0"
Park Falls, WI (Price county)  1.8"
3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis county)  1.5"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  2.4" measured at the National Weather Service.

*Lake effect snowfall totals from Today, Monday, March 7th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Lutsen, MN (Cook county)  5.5"
Grand Portage, MN (Cook county)  5.5"
20 miles north of Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  4.0"

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota:

*1.9" snowfall total on March 6th, 2011 was the first 1.0" or greater snowfall total since February 20th (1.6")
*March 6th's snowfall total of 1.9" was our heaviest daily total since January 28th when 2.8" of snow fell.
*The first 7 days of March has produced at least a trace of snow on 5 of those days.

Weather Headlines:

*Several systems offer to keep things rather active into mid-March for the Upper Midwest.
*No arctic air in sight, but no big warmups either.
*May have seen our last subzero nighttime lows in the Twin Ports until next winter.

Weather History:

-On this date in 2000:  A record high temperature of 70 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
-One year ago Today the high temperature was 48 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A well defined stationary front was draped southwest to northeast from Southwestern Kansas to Northern Wisconsin to Central Lake Superior Today with a ridge of arctic high pressure of 1030-1036mb covering Central Canada while low pressure of 996mb was centered over the Southwest U.S.  Quite a bit of weather going in parts of our area Today with some lingering light snow and flurries at times across Northwest Wisconsin while a weak onshore flow, combined with 850mb temps of around -13 degrees C led to some vigorous lake effect snow showers Today along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  There was also a meso-low located just east of Cook county Minnesota This Afternoon, this feature likely produced some very heavy snow showers Today over the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were in the lower 20s in far Northern Minnesota with middle 20s to around 30 degrees for the rest of our area.  Winds Today were out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery indicates a zonal flow covering the Upper Midwest Today while a potent storm churns east through the Southwest U.S.  Upper level winds >110 knots were found on the west side of this storm and also ahead of it from Northwest Mexico to Southern Kansas per RUC model analysis.  A large area of 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covered the Central-Southern Rockies Today with this next strong March storm.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our north with a stationary front remaining to our southeast.  Areas of light snow and flurries will linger at times Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin with accumulations under an inch.  Lake effect snow showers which will be heavy at times are expected to persist This Evening before decreasing in coverage and intensity Overnight.  Another 2-5" of snow may come down This Evening northeast of the Twin Ports.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the single digits and teens, some locations in Northern Minnesota could drop to the single digits below zero.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will track into the Southern Plains on Tuesday before lifting northeast into Central Missouri by late Tomorrow Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area during this period with scattered flurries possible near Lake Superior.  Some snow associated with the Southern Plains low will lift north into Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but not until late Tuesday Night (probably after Midnight) Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the east at 5-15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure is forecast to move from Central Missouri to Northeast Illinois to Northeast lower Michigan from Wednesday into early Thursday.  On this track, the heaviest corridor of snow with amounts >4" will occur from Southeast Minnesota into Central Wisconsin with Price county in our local area on the northern edge of max snowfall.  A disturbance and trough edging east out of the Northern Plains will pass through our area Wednesday and Wednesday Night, some moisture associated with that low to our southeast will try to get entrained into that system moving in from the Northern Plains.  The net result could be some snow that could affect most of our area, although amounts appear to be on the light side, expect for possibly the I35 corridor, Northwest Wisconsin, and Arrowhead of Minnesota where a few inches of snow could accumulate.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.  Thursday and Thursday Night look generally dry at this time with low pressure moving into Eastern Canada with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and lower 20s.

The next period of interest will be Friday-Saturday, March 11th-12th...Doesn't look like a major storm at this time, but snow or mixed precipitation might be enough to cause some travel difficultes.  After this event, will look toward the Sunday-Monday time frame, March 13th-14th which could bring us the next round of snow or mixed precipitation.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional snow showers or flurries This Evening.  Accumulations under 1".  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind east around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 28 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Occasional light snow.  Accumulations of 1-2" possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 28 to 33.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Friday...  Increasing cloudiness.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  31
Low:  13

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:36 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   6:04 PM CST

Tim