Friday, March 4, 2011

3/4/11: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:16 PM CST, Friday, March 4th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*Our last 2" or greater snowfall in Duluth, Minnesota was on January 28th, 2011 (2.8" of snow fell that day)

Weather History:

On this date in 2000, a record high temperature of 56 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mostly cloudy skies prevailed in most areas Today, but there was some clearing at times west and southwest of the Iron Range, there was also some flurries or light snow showers with little if any accumulation from Northeast Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today were in the 20s to lower 30s with north or northwest winds under 15 mph.  Surface map early This Evening featured high pressure of 1036mb in Western Saskatchewan Province with low pressure of 1012mb in extreme Western Illinois.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low was pushing east out of the Southwest U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery with plenty of active weather occurring from Northwest Arkansas through parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Michigan This Evening as a southwest upper level flow helps to pull gulf moisture north out ahead of the approaching Southern Rockies trough.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our northwest/north through this period which will keep most of our area mainly dry through Tomorrow Night.  There might be a few lake effect snow showers or flurries at times along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and Tomorrow, and then perhaps along the North Shore of Lake Superior Tomorrow Night as surface winds switch from the N/NW to the E/NE.  Any accumulation would be very light and generally under an inch.  Outside of this lake effect potential, the remainder of our area might see a few flurries at times, but no accumulation is expected.  Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero with highs on Saturday in the teens and 20s.  Northerly winds, will turn more easterly by Tomorrow Night with wind speeds under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will anchor itself in Central Canada from Sunday through the middle of next week while a trough approaches the Upper Midwest from the Northern Plains from Sunday into Monday.  This system could bring some light snow and flurries to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday Afternoon into Monday, accumulations look to be on the light side with perhaps 1-2" of new snow by Monday for some parts of our area.  High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will generally be in the 20s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the single digits and teens.

Midweek storm update:

GFS model (12z and 18z runs) have shifted the low more to the south, similar to what the GEM-GLOBAL, NAVY, and Japan model (JMA) have been showing for a few days now.  The EUROPEAN and HPC are now the farthest north with the storm,  but even those two models have trended south with the surface low compared to 24 hours ago. 

The latter solution would bring the low northeast out of the Southern Plains, to Southern Iowa, to between Milwaukee, Wisconsin and Chicago, Illinois from Tuesday through Wednesday of next week, while the southern solutions have the low tracking E/NE out of the Southern Plains toward the Ohio Valley. 

This storm is still 4-5 days down the road and additional changes to the track, timing, and intensity will occur, but the trend at least for Today is for this storm to take a more southerly route..something that were familar with, since almost every storm since December has missed the Northland.

If this system can lift far enough north, then portions of our area...generally south of south of the Iron Range would get some accumulating snow from late Tuesday Night through Wednesday, but if this system follows the southern route, then virtually all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be left high and dry once again for the middle of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Considerable clouds.  Flurries at times.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.  Wind becoming east to northeast around 12 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday...  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries possible.  High 22 to 27.

.Monday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Tuesday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  30
Low:  12

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:41 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   6:00 PM CST

Tim