Thursday, March 31, 2011

3/31/11: Thursday's Weather Report

This is my 1000th weather blog, so I wanted to thank everyone who takes time out to read it.  Thank you very much!!!

Issued at 5:02 PM CDT, Thursday, March 31st, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.  Gotta go back to February 15th-17th, 2011 for the last such occurrence of three consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 40 degrees.

*March 2011 had 18 days with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota with 7 days with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees.

*For the 1st time in 9 years and only the 17th time in 137 years of weather records, February produced a maximum temperature warmer than March in the same calendar year at Duluth, Minnesota.  Warmest high temperature in February was 52 degrees on the 16th.  Warmest high temperature in March was 46 degrees on the 17th.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

COLD AND WET APRIL AHEAD?  Here's the updated outlook for April 2011 per CPC:

For Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for Below Normal Temperatures with a 40% chance for Above Normal Precipitation.

Note:  Average high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota climbs from 41 degrees on the 1st to 57 degrees on the 30th while the average low temperature goes from 23 degrees on the 1st to 35 degrees on the 30th.

Weather History:

*On this date last year, a record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
*On this date in 2009, 6.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The North Shore of Lake Superior, through the Twin Ports, and Interstate 35 corridor saw quite a bit more sunshine then what was forecasted 24 hours ago, while skies were a lot cloudier in Northcentral Minnesota and also in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  There's been some light precipitation in the form of wet snow, drizzle, and light rain Today in parts of Northern and Central Minnesota, but this precipitation is having some difficulty in pushing much farther to the east.  Highs Today ranged from the middle 30s to middle 40s with south or east winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with a very strong upper level jet with speeds >140 knots lined up Western Canada through the Northern Rockies, Northern and Westcentral Plains per RUC model analysis.  Minnesota sits to the east of this potent jet, thus we are in a favorable area for a few disturbances to drop south-east out of Manitoba Province.

Tonight and Friday:

Expect mostly cloudy skies or increasing clouds This Evening, followed by overcast conditions Overnight into Friday.  Areas of light snow and drizzle will occur at times as a low pressure disturbance moves south/east across the Upper Midwest.  Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less are possible by Friday with a spotty 2" total not out of the question.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and lower 40s.  South, east, or west winds under 15 mph can be expected Tonight with wind speeds of 20 mph or less for Friday.

Friday Night:

Mostly cloudy skies are expected with lingering flurries or snow showers for Northeast Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 20s to around 30 with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Saturday and Saturday Night will be dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s.  Sunday and Monday, April 3rd and 4th should remain dry for Northern Minnesota, while some wet snow or rain could occur for southern areas...Mainly along and south of a Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward to Park Falls line.  No major accumulations of snow or rain are expected for those areas the way it looks now.  A strong area of low pressure will track through the Northern-Central Rockies on Sunday, moving out into the Central Plains Sunday Night, before lifting E-NE toward the Southern Great Lakes/LOWER Michigan area on Monday...Based on this projected storm track, the heavier amounts of rain or snow would fall south of our local area for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Clouding up.  Occasional light snow and drizzle developing between 9-11 PM.  Snow accumulation of 1" or less by dawn.  Low 28 to 32.  Wind southeast around 12 mph.

.Friday...  Occasional light snow and drizzle.  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 40.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night...  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  41
Low:  23

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:37 PM CDT

Tim