Monday, March 21, 2011

3/21/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:03 PM CDT, Monday, March 21st, 2011

Snowfall report for Sunday, March 20th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

4 miles south of Sawyer, MN (Carlton county)  1.5"
Montreal, WI (Iron county)  2.5"
8 miles northeast of Cook, MN (St. Louis county)  1.0"
2 miles southeast of Finland, MN (Lake county)  1.6"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake county)  2.2"
Gile, WI (Iron county)  2.1"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  3.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  2.8" measured at the National Weather Service.

Note:  A few thunderstorms developed from the Brainerd Lakes, east to Moose Lake, north toward the Twin Ports between 4-6 AM Sunday.

Weather Headlines:

*Calm before the storm Tonight
*Storm overspreads the area from south to north on Tuesday
*Peak intensity of the storm is expected to be from late Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Morning
*High wind threat with possible power outages especially near Lake Superior

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A couple areas of low pressure of 996-998mb were centered in the Central Rockies late This Afternoon with high pressure >1030mb building into Northwest Ontario Province.  A decent spring day across our area with partly-mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the middle 30s to lower 40s.  Winds from the northwest are beginning to shift to the northeast This Afternoon as a cold front settles south through Northern Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West-northwest 500mb flow was found across the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis.  Sunday's weather system has moved into Eastern Canada Today with the next storm heading east through the Western U.S.  120 knot upper level winds were found in the Southern Rockies Today on the southeast side of the upper low passing through Nevada with a seperate area of strong upper level winds >110 knots covering areas from Central Ontario Province to Southwest Quebec Province.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few early Evening showers of rain, sleet, or wet snow near Lake Superior.  There might be some flurries or patchy light freezing drizzle continuing through the night near Lake Superior as onshore winds lock in.  The rest of our area should remain dry Tonight.  Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s, but some teens are possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds will shift to the east-northeast at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph developing near Lake Superior.

Tuesday:

Low pressure averaging 995mb heads east through Nebraska with a 1035-1040mb high centered in Southern Hudson Bay/Northern Ontario Province.  Look for a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain for southern areas on Tuesday with some light snow or sleet spreading north to the Twin Ports and Highway 2 corridor especially during the Afternoon.  Areas from the Iron Range to Arrowhead and to the Ontario border should remain dry Tomorrow.  Highs Tuesday will be in the 20s and lower 30s with east-northeast winds at 15-30 mph, but gusts over 40 mph will develop near Lake Superior.

Tuesday Night:

Low pressure of 995-997mb will move from Western to Eastern Iowa with high pressure averaging 1037mb centered in Northern Ontario Province.  Snow will become heavy at times for areas along and south of the Highway 2 corridor in Minnesota with all of Northwest Wisconsin also seeing snow and heavy snow.  Northern Minnesota through the Arrowhead...Or along and north of a Northome to Cook to Ely to Lutsen line will see snow gradually develop Tuesday Evening with snow continuing through the Overnight hours.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s with east-northeast winds of 15-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph near Lake Superior.

Note:  Travel will become extremely difficult in parts of our area due to falling and blowing snow.  Roads will become snow and ice covered.  Visibility will drop to near zero at times especially by Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning.

Snowfall totals from Tuesday through Wednesday:

*8-13" with locally higher amounts approaching 15-18" for Northwest Wisconsin, Twin Ports, and Eastcentral Minnesota.

*6-12" for Northern Minnesota...Note:  There is a chance that snowfall amounts will end up much lower north of the Iron Range through the Arrowhead as the snow may have a tough time getting that far north due to the amount of dry air coming south off that strong area of high pressure in Northern Canada.

Ice accumulations:  Up to 0.10" along and south of a line from Leader to Aitkin to Willow River, Minnesota.  And along and south of a line from Dairyland to Butternut in Northwest Wisconsin.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*BLIZZARD WARNING*
Timing:  1 PM CDT Tuesday until 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

.Tonight...  Considerable cloudiness.  Becoming breezy.  Patchy drizzle, freezing drizzle, or flurries possible.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph developing late.

.Tuesday...  Very windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or sleet possible.  Snow accumulations 1" or less.  Temperatures holding nearly steady between 27 to 32 degrees.  Wind east to northeast increasing to 25 to 35 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Snow...Very windy.  Snow could be heavy at times.  Blizzard conditions developing.  Thunder possible.  Low 23 to 27.  Wind east to northeast at 25 to 35 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph.

.Wednesday...  Snow...Windy.  Blizzard conditions.  Total snowfall accumulations of 10-13" with locally higher amounts possible.  Temperatures holding nearly steady between 23 to 27 degrees.  Wind east to northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Snow showers and flurries.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Thursday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  36
Low:  19

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:08 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:24 PM CDT

Tim