Wednesday, March 2, 2011

3/2/11: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:51 PM CST, Wednesday, March 2nd, 2011

...STORM THREAT NEXT WEEK...

Low temperature report for Wednesday, March 2nd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -18 degrees
Two Harbors, MN:  -13 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -15 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -20 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -18 degrees
Cloquet, MN:  -11 degrees
Siren, WI:  -9 degrees
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  -13 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  -15 degrees
Northome, MN:  -17 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -18 degrees
Cook, MN:  -17 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -24 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -19 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -21 degrees
Butternut, WI:  -10 degrees

Duluth, MN:  -11 degrees
Superior, WI:  -6 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A quick, but intense blast of arctic air was over our area Today with temperatures only in the single digits and teens which is 20+ degrees below average for early March.  Sunshine during the Morning hours gave way to increasing cloudiness This Afternoon as warm air advection heads E-NE from the Northern Plains.  Surface map as of 7 PM featured a ridge of arctic high pressure averaging 1034mb extending from Northern Minnesota to the Great Lakes with low pressure of 1010mb covering the Northcentral Rockies.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis with the core of the strongest jet stream winds >130 knots centered east of Minnesota as Tuesday Night's 500mb trough and arctic airmass gets booted off to the east.  Early Evening 850mb temperatures ranged from -11 degrees C at Duluth, Minnesota to -3 degrees C at Sioux Falls, South Dakota to +10 degrees C at Casper, Wyoming.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure will center itself to the north/east of the Upper Midwest during this period with a low pressure trough pushing east out of the Rockies and Northern Plains.  A broad warm air advection pattern will set-up throughout our area through Thursday Evening and this will cause light snow and flurries to break out at times.  Snowfall accumulations should generally be under an inch, but a few locales could pick up around 2" of snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to an E-SE wind (lake enhancement) Thursday and Thursday Evening.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero with highs Tomorrow in the 20s with lows Tomorrow Night generally in the teens.  East or southeast winds are forecast through Thursday with winds turning to the north or west Thursday Night, wind speeds will remain under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A couple of weak disturbances may affect our area Friday through Sunday with a few snow showers/flurries, no big systems are anticipated though.  High temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s on Friday with mainly 20s for Saturday.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will generally be in the single digits above zero.

Forecast models are showing a Colorado type low affecting much of the Plains and Upper Midwest next week.  Low pressure moves east out of Colorado, reaching the Central Plains around Monday (March 7th) low pressure is then forecasted to lift northeast toward the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes by Wednesday (March 9th)

Based on the current track, it would appear that all of the precipitation that falls would come down as snow in Northern Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin, although some mixed precipitation is possible south of a Hayward to Park Falls line.  This potential storm is still a number of days down the road and the computer models will likely fluctuate on the track, timing, and intensity of this storm so stay tuned for later updates.  It should also be noted that an overrunning type snow event could occur sometime Sunday Night-Monday Night for parts of our area before the main storm moves in from Tuesday into Wednesday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Milder compared to last night.  Occasional flurries possible late.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind becoming east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  Occasional light snow and flurries.  Accumulations of 1" or less.  Mostly cloudy.  High 21 to 26.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind becoming west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  High 22 to 27.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  29
Low:  11

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:45 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:57 PM CST

Tim