Monday, March 14, 2011

3/14/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:31 PM CDT, Monday, March 14th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Areas of dense fog developed early This Morning, the fog burned off by mid-Morning which gave way to mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies with above normal temperatures with highs in the middle 30s to middle 40s.  Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.  Surface map as of 3 PM featured high pressure of of 1026-1030mb extending from the Central Plains to Southern Great Lakes to Southeast Ontario Province.  Low pressure of 1000mb was centered in far Western Saskatchewan Province with a cold front attached to that low tracking through the Northern Rockies.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Two well defined storm systems showing up on the water vapor satellite imagery Today.  One was moving east-southeast across Missouri, the other system was located in the Southwestern part of Saskatchewan Province.  Westerly 500mb flow was occurring across the Upper Midwest Today to the north of an upper level trough which covered the Central Plains and Southern Great Lakes.

Tonight:

High pressure to our east and low pressure to our northwest will result in a southerly flow across our area Tonight.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies can be expected with lows mainly in the 20s to around 30 degrees.  Wind speeds Tonight will be in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure passes by to our north with a weakening cold front pushing east through the Upper Midwest.  Not much moisture will be associated with this front, but there should be just enough to trigger a band of rain showers on Tuesday before dry weather returns for Tuesday Night.  Note:  Precipitation that does fall on Tuesday should be in the form of rain, but with 850mb temperatures hovering close to zero degrees C, it's possible that a few ice pellets or snowflakes could mix with the rain, but any snow or ice will not accumulate.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 30s to lower 40s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 20s...There could be some areas of fog that develop Tuesday Night due to some melting snow Tomorrow plus any precipitation that may fall which would add some extra moisture to the atmosphere.

Rainfall totals on Tuesday will be light and should generally be in the trace to 0.10" range, but a few locations may receive up to 0.25" of precipitation.

Extended Forecast:

Wednesday through Friday could be unsettled at times as low pressure passes north of our area once again, a cold front attached to this low will settle south-east across the Upper Midwest for Thursday and Friday.  There might be a secondary wave of low pressure (perhaps more than one) that forms over the Western High Plains before it scoots east-northeast late this week.  Some rain is possible across parts of our area from Wednesday Night through Friday, although it doesn't look to be very heavy at the moment.  This coming weekend, March 19th-20th appear dry at this time with the next potential storm system moving into the Upper Midwest sometime Sunday Night-Monday.  Note:  Quite a bit of model uncertainty showing up this weekend and next week as a 500mb trough sets up across the Western U.S. while low pressure systems eject out of that trough...Differences are showing up as to where these systems track as well as the overall intensity and timing of each low.  The potential exists for a more active weather pattern for the Northern-Central Plains and Upper Midwest from this weekend into next week with the threat of rain, thunderstorms, and maybe some snow or ice...Stay tuned.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Scattered rain showers during the Afternoon.  Rain could mix with sleet or wet snow.  High 36 to 41.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Friday...  Mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  33
Low:  16

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:22 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:14 PM CDT

Tim