Tuesday, March 1, 2011

3/1/11: Tuesday's Weather Report/WIND CHILL ADVISORY

Issued at 7:18 PM CST, Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a wind chill advisory for Northern and Northeastern Minnesota.  The advisory is valid from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Wednesday.  Counties included in the advisory are:  Koochiching MN...Itasca MN...Cass MN...Crow Wing MN...Aitkin MN...Carlton MN...St. Louis MN...Lake MN...and Cook MN.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Bigfork MN...Grand Rapids MN...Cass Lake MN...Walker MN...Leader MN...Brainerd MN...Hill City MN...Aitkin MN...McGrath MN...Moose Lake MN...Cloquet MN...Duluth MN...Hibbing MN...Ely MN...Crane Lake MN...Two Harbors MN...Silver Bay MN...and Grand Marais MN.

Impacts:  Wind chill values of 25 below to 35 below zero Tonight through Wednesday Morning.  A few locations in Northern Minnesota could have wind chill values as low as 35 below to 40 below early Wednesday Morning.  Frost bite time will be 15 minutes or less.  Children and the elderly are more susceptible to the cold.

This wind chill advisory is for a combination of arctic air and wind that will create dangerously cold wind chill values.  If outdoors be sure to cover all exposed skin to prevent frostbite.  If precautions are not taken frostbite can result in hypothermia.

March Climate Data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature is 25.4 degrees.

Average high temperature of 29 degrees on the 1st warms to 41 degrees on the 31st.
Average low temperature of 10 degrees on the 1st warms to 23 degrees on the 31st.

Average monthly precipitation total:  1.69"
Average monthly snowfall:  13.7"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A powerful arctic front surged south through our area during the Afternoon hours.  Temperatures in the 30s and even some lower 40s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota dropped to the 20s late in the Afternoon while 20s in Northern Minnesota were replaced with single digits and teens by late Afternoon.  Winds were a big story Today as west-southwest winds turned northwest once the boundary moved through.  Wind speeds of 15-25 mph were common, but gusts over 30 mph did occur.  Surface map early This Evening shows arctic high pressure of 1040mb centered in extreme Western Saskatchewan Province with low pressure of 1000mb centered in far Western Quebec Province.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow has buckled just enough to allow another blast of frigid arctic air to drop south into the Upper Midwest.  Strong upper level jet stream winds >120 knots stretched from Western Canada through the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes region per RUC model analysis with early Evening 850mb temperatures ranging from around +4 degrees C at Des Moines, Iowa to -14 degrees C at Duluth, Minnesota to -22 degrees C in Southern Manitoba and Southern Ontario Provinces.

Tonight:

Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills will be the weather headline for Tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with northwest winds at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.  Wind chill values will range from 15 to 30 below zero with 30 below to 40 below chill values Overnight in Northern Minnesota.  There is a threat for a few lake effect snow showers Tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior, generally affecting Ashland and Iron counties, snow accumulations will generally be around an inch.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Arctic high pressure will move right over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday before it begins to pull off to the east for Wednesday Night.  Partly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with highs only in the single digits and teens.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero can be expected for Wednesday Night.  A few snow showers or flurries could also develop late Wednesday Night, mainly in Northern Minnesota as warm air advection kicks in.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the north or west under 20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will turn to the southeast or east under 15 mph.  Wind chill values Wednesday Morning will range from 15 to 30 below with some 30 to 40 below wind chills possible in Northern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Still looks like will see some light snow and flurries in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday, but accumulations look to be on the light side (around an inch) E/SE winds coming off Lake Superior could result in some lake enhanced snowfall along the North Shore of Lake Superior, northeast of Duluth for Thursday and Thursday Evening with snowfall accumulations of 1-3" possible for that area.  Flurries could linger at times into Thursday Night, otherwise mainly dry conditions are forecast from Friday through early next week as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains which will once again deflect a storm system to our south/east this weekend.  High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Thursday Night generally in the teens with single digits and teens for Friday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing:  9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Wednesday.

.Tonight...  Breezy and bitterly cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.  Wind chill values of 25 below to 35 below.

.Wednesday...  Very cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 8 to 13.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Morning wind chill values of 25 below to 35 below.

.Wednesday Night...  Increasing cloudiness.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Thursday...  Occasional light snow.  Around an inch of accumulation possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  29
Low:  11

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:47 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:55 PM CST

Tim