Monday, February 28, 2011

2/28/11: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:30 PM CST, Monday, February 28th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*194 severe weather reports (6 tornadoes) across portions of the Central Plains and Ohio Valley on Sunday, February 27th, 2011.  Source:  SPC

*113 severe weather reports (4 tornadoes) so far Today across portions of the Southeast U.S. and Southern Ohio Valley.  Source:  SPC

*Meteorological winter (December-February) is almost over.  An early look at the numbers for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location):  39.8" of snow this winter compared to 56.5" last winter.  68 days with at least a trace of snow this winter compared to 50 days last winter.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1024mb was centered over the Central Plains with low pressure of 1002mb centered in Southwestern Alberta Province late This Afternoon.  Southerly winds along with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with temperatures closer to average as we close out the month of February.  Highs Today were generally in the middle 20s to around 30 degrees with wind speeds generally under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A fast zonal flow covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis with a corridor of 130-150 knot upper level winds extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.  Arctic airmass which was over the Upper Midwest the last few days has pushed north into Canada with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -14 to -24 degrees C in Western-Central Canada to +2 to +6 degrees C in parts of the Dakotas.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our south/east with low pressure to our northwest.  Southwest low level jet will strengthen to greater than 30 knots Tonight as warm advection pours into the area out ahead of the low to our northwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with a few flurries possible in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the teens, but some single digits can't be ruled out.  Winds Tonight will be out of the south or southwest under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our north/northeast during this period with a sharp cold front pushing south through our area on Tuesday.  Strong cold advection and gusty north/northwest winds will follow the passage of the cold front.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s with falling temperatures in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota as another brief surge of arctic air with 850mb temperatures lower than -12 degrees C drops south into the Upper Midwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with a few snow showers or flurries possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Partly cloudy skies for Tomorrow Night, could see a few lake effect snow showers or flurries along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will be in control of our weather on Wednesday with highs only in the single digits and teens along with dry conditions.  High pressure moves off to our east Wednesday Night and Thursday with a southeasterly wind developing on the back side of that high and out ahead of a low pressure trough which will approach the area from the west.  Light snow associated with a warm advection pattern will occur in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday with snowfall accumulations generally around an inch the way it looks now, the possible exception to this would be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a couple inches of snow could accumulate on Thursday due to some lake enhancement (E-SE wind)  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with highs on Thursday mainly in the 20s with lows Thursday Night in the teens.

Friday-Sunday (March 4th-6th) look generally dry at this time, but another storm is expected to develop but early indications are for it to remain well to our south/east late this week/weekend.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Windy.  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest during the mid to late Afternoon.  Winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night...  Breezy and very cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible during the Evening.  Overnight wind chill values around 25 below.

.Wednesday...  Cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 8 to 13.

.Wednesday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light snow.  Accumulations around an inch.  High 21 to 26.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Friday...  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  10

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:49 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:54 PM CST

Tim