Tuesday, February 15, 2011

2/15/11: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:24 PM CST, Tuesday, February 15th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A warm and breezy day with high temperatures ranging from the mid 30s in the Arrowhead to the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found throughout our area.  Surface map as of 3 PM featured low pressure of 996mb along the Eastern Saskatchewan/Western Manitoba Province line with a trough attached to that low extending south through the Eastern Dakotas/Western Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow has finally transitioned from what seem to be a never ending northwest flow...The upper level winds were blowing from the west Today per RUC model analysis with a fairly healthy, but moisture starved disturbance pushing east across the Upper Great Lakes and adjacent areas of Ontario Province per water vapor satellite imagery.  Strong warm advection pattern has setup across Minnesota Today with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures of +2 to +10 degrees C from northeast to southwest.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies with above average temperatures will persist during this period with southerly winds at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.  Areas of fog, light drizzle, or light freezing drizzle could develop across our area late Tonight into Tomorrow Morning, and then again late Tomorrow Night.  Lows Tonight and Wednesday Night will be in the 20s and lower 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and 40s.

Extended Forecast:

One last warm day is on tap for Thursday before temperatures trend back toward average levels from Friday through early next week.  Strong low pressure of around 987-990mb will pass west-north of our local area from Thursday into Friday.  Low clouds along with areas of fog, drizzle, and freezing drizzle will develop along and ahead of this low with precipitation turning over to flurries and snow showers late Thursday Night into Friday as cold air rushes in on the backside of the surface low.  Snow accumulations look light at this point with perhaps 1-2" falling north of a Bigfork to Grand Marais line and maybe a dusting farther south.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs Friday will be in the 20s and lower 30s with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens.

Latest model guidance continues to show a Western U.S. trough and a southwest 500mb flow across the Plains for next week.  There are two systems worth monitoring that could bring us snow or possible mixed precipitation.  One could occur early next week (Monday, February 21st) the other could occur sometime the middle or end of next week (February 23rd-25th) The models are bouncing around on the track and intensity of both systems, but at times they have shown a rather strong low pressure/s lifting into the Upper Midwest, so next week will need to be watched carefully to see what future model runs show.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

.Wednesday...  Patchy fog possible mainly early.  Variable cloudiness.  High 38 to 43.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Areas of fog, light drizzle, or light freezing drizzle possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog and drizzle.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog and drizzle which could mix with or change to snow showers, flurries, and light freezing drizzle.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy with snow showers or flurries possible.  Colder.  High 30 to 35 with temperatures falling into the 20s.  Northwest wind could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 to 8.

.Saturday...  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  25
Low:    5

Sunrise Tomorrow:  7:12 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:35 PM CST

Tim