Friday, October 8, 2010

10/8/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:04 PM CDT, Friday, October 8th, 2010

High temperature report for Thursday, October 7th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN:  74 degrees
International Falls MN:  74 degrees
Brainerd MN:  75 degrees
Hibbing MN:  75 degrees
Ashland WI:  73 degrees
Hayward WI:  74 degrees
Sky Harbor MN:  75 degrees
Silver Bay MN:  75 degrees
Eveleth MN:  73 degrees
Bigfork MN:  75 degrees
Hinckley MN:  74 degrees
Superior WI:  75 degrees
Phillips WI:  73 degrees
Northome MN:  74 degrees
Embarrass MN:  70 degrees
Finland MN:  75 degrees
Madeline Island WI:  73 degrees
Danbury WI:  76 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*Prior to yesterday and Today, we have to go back to October 2005 for the last time we saw at least 2 days in a row with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees during an October at Duluth, Minnesota.  October 2005 actually produced three days in a row (1st-3rd) with highs in the 70s.

*Average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota ending on the 7th:  51.6 degrees which is 3.0 degrees Above Normal.

*Precipitation total at Duluth, Minnesota through October 7th, 2010:  0.13" which is 0.56" Below Normal.

*So far, just one day this month with at least 0.01" of precipitation...That occurred on the 1st.

*Through October 8th, 2010:  There's been 3 days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees and 2 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  Same time last year, we had zero 60 or 70 degree high temperature days and our warmest high temperature through October 8th, 2009 was just 52 degrees!

September 2010 NOAA State of the Climate Report:

The U.S. experienced it's 14 warmest September on record with an average temperature of 67.1 degrees which was 1.7 degrees above the 1901-2000 average.  September 2010 was the 4th consecutive month above average in the U.S. for temperatures, which is coming off the 4th warmest summer (June-August).

The only states in the U.S. to have Below Normal Temperatures during September 2010 were North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Minnesota recorded it's wettest September on record with North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin having Much Above Normal precipitation, while Wyoming had it's record driest September on record.

Weather History:

On this date in 1989...  A record low temperature of 24 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Note:  The Duluth Airport was 6 degrees shy of the record high temperature of 82 degrees Today.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Unseasonably warm temperatures over the Upper Midwest Today as highs soared into the 70s and 80s across all of Minnesota with lower 80s as close as Brainerd and Aitkin Today...Some locations in Southwestern Minnesota even made it into the lower 90s Today.  Fairmont, St. James, Olivia, and Mankato are a few locales that cracked the 90 degree mark on this 8th of October!  Sunshine was abundant in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with winds out of the north, south, or east under 15 mph.  Surface map late This Afternoon featured a cold front extending from Northern Minnesota to Central Lake Superior with high pressure of 1018 mb building into Northern Ontario Province.  Low pressure of 1008 mb was centered in Central South Dakota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery reveals that a W/NW flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today with unseasonable warmth overhead...Note:  850 mb temperatures across Minnesota ranged from +16/+22 degrees C late Today!  A powerful storm with plenty of early season cold air (30/40 degree temps and zero/-4 degree C H85 temperatures covered Northeastern Canada Today with a powerhouse jet stream >120 knots covering Northeast Canada Today.  The cutoff low which was over the Southwestern U.S. the past several days has finally opened up a bit and has moved into the Northern-Central Rockies Today.

Tonight:

A cold front will continue to drop south through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening with high pressure averaging 1020 mb building south from Northern Ontario Province.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 40s and lower 50s, but a few of the typical cold spots could drop into the 30s, similar to what happened the past two nights.  Winds Tonight will be out of the south, north, or east under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Inland locations will remain on the mild side on Saturday with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s.  Locations near Lake Superior will be much cooler by some 10-20 degrees compared to Today with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night.  The forecast models are hinting at some instability moving in during this period with CAPES approaching 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of +1/-2 degrees C, however little in the way of precipitation is anticipated due to the main upper level low with it's cold pool aloft staying well to our southwest...Nevertheless, the models do show a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two developing, especially in Western-Southern areas by Saturday Afternoon or Saturday Night, if anything does develop it should remain very isolated.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level low will drop into the Central Plains for Sunday and Monday...Some lingering instability across the Upper Midwest, well north of that low could trigger a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm on Sunday, but overall it looks generally dry from Sunday into Monday with high temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s Sunday Night and Monday Night.  A cold front is expected to pass through the region around Tuesday of next week with some showers possibly occurring as that front comes through.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Clear.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 61 to 66 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.

.Monday Night...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible late.  Low 47 to 52.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 57 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 38 degrees

Tim