Thursday, October 7, 2010

10/7/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:58 PM CDT, Thursday, October 7th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*Prior to Today, the last time an October featured at least one day with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees was back in 2007, the 4th and 7th of that year featured high temperatures in the 70s at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Per NOAA:  2nd wettest first 9 months of the year on record in Wisconsin and Iowa.

*Record chill in the Southeast U.S. This Morning.  Orlando, Florida:  57 degrees.  Jacksonville, Florida:  47 degrees.  Gainesville, Florida:  45 degrees.  Source:  TWC.

Weather History:

On this date in 1980...  A record high temperature of 80 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.  Note:  As of 3 PM, we were 7 degrees shy of reaching the record for Today.

On this date in 2001...  A record low temperature of 24 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1022 mb extended from Southeastern Nebraska to Northern Missouri as of 2 PM with warm southwesterly breezes occurring across our local area Today on the west/north side of this high.  Sunshine was abundant in all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with high temperatures in the 70s with 850 mb temperatures ranging from +11/+13 degrees C.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today with high 500 mb heights of 5280 meters per RUC model analysis.  Upper level troughs continued to cover the Northeast U.S. and Western U.S. Today with an upper level low moving slowly toward the E/NE out of Nevada and Idaho while an upper level ridge covered the Central Plains.  Note:  An intense storm with 500 mb heights of 5340 meters and 12 hour 500 mb height falls >270 meters/12 hours was moving into Northeastern Canada This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with a strong 120+knot upper level jet located on the backside of this storm across Eastern Ontario/Western Quebec Provinces Today.

Tonight:

Mostly clear skies will continue in our local area with lows generally in the 40s and 50s which is quite mild for early October.  Winds Tonight will be out of the southwest under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure which was centered to our south This Afternoon will move off to our southeast while a cold front develops to our north while dropping south through most of our area by Friday Night.  High pressure building in behind this cold front will drop into Ontario Province Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are on tap for Friday with high temperatures mainly in the 70s, but a few locales could make a run toward 80 degrees as a thermal ridge builds northeast into Central Minnesota while 850 mb temperatures increase to between +16/+20 degrees C on Friday.  Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  South winds under 20 mph forecast on Friday with winds turning to the east by Friday Night under 20 mph.  The wind shift to the east will likely occur first near Lake Superior Friday Afternoon, then will work west/south through the rest of our area by Friday Evening.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will be centered to our north/east this weekend while the upper level low/trough covering parts of the Western U.S. Today moves E/NE into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from Saturday through Monday.  Some moisture, cold air aloft, and some instability associated with this system could result in the development of a few showers or isolated thunderstorms especially toward Sunday and Monday the way it looks now.  High temperatures in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 60s and 70s for Saturday and Sunday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  A rather potent cold front looks to pass through Minnesota around Tuesday of next week with some showers possible at that time...A chillier airmass is then forecast to move into the area around midweek before rebounding a bit by late next week the way it looks now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny.  Warm.  High 73 to 78 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming east during the Afternoon.

.Friday Night...  Partly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 61 to 66 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.

.Sunday...  Partly sunny.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday...  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 57 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 38 degrees

Tim