Thursday, September 9, 2010

9/9/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:19 PM CDT, Thursday, September 9th, 2010

Low temperature report from Today, Thursday, September 9th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN: 36 degrees

International Falls MN: 31 degrees

Hibbing MN: 31 degrees

Hayward WI: 34 degrees

Ashland WI: 36 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 30 degrees

Ely MN: 30 degrees

Eveleth MN: 32 degrees

Superior WI: 34 degrees

Littlefork MN: 35 degrees

Embarrass MN: 28 degrees

Floodwood MN: 34 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 33 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 31 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 29 degrees

7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN: 32 degrees

Butternut WI: 34 degrees

Upson WI: 33 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*RECORD AVERAGE STATEWIDE SUMMER 2010 RAINFALL RECORD IN WISCONSIN: 18.65". This top rank is based upon summer (June-August) data for the past 116 years. The old average statewide summer rainfall amount was 16.24" which was set in 1980. Source: Wisconsin State Climatology Office.

*4th WARMEST SUMMER (JUNE THROUGH AUGUST) ON RECORD ACROSS THE U.S.

*August 2010 featured only 7 states in the U.S. with near normal temperatures...Montana, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Nevada and California were among the states. 17 states in the U.S. had much above normal temperatures, this includes the states of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. The remainder of the U.S. had above normal temperatures during August 2010. Source: NESDIS/NOAA/National Climatic Data Center.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure averaging 996 mb was centered in Eastern Montana as of mid-Afternoon with high pressure averaging 1022 mb centered to our north/east. Partly-mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with high temperatures in the middle 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior down through the Twin Ports with upper 50s to middle 60s for inland areas. Some light rain showers have been affecting portions of Cass and Crow Wing counties Today, generally west of a line from Longville to Fort Ripley, but the heavier showers have stayed off to our west. Winds Today were out of the east at 5-15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Upper level troughs covered the Western U.S. and Eastern Canada-Northeast U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis with a 500 mb ridge in place across the Upper Midwest. A 100 knot upper level jet streak was located across the Central Rockies at the base of the Western U.S. trough This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue across our area Tonight with a rather strong area of low pressure (991-994 mb) lifting northeast out of the Northern Rockies into the Western Dakotas. High pressure along with an upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over our area Tonight. There will be some showers, mostly light in nature affecting Western areas, mainly This Evening. The bulk of these showers will remain south and west of a line from Bena to Pine City. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, but some 30s are possible in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the east around 15 mph or less.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure (991-994 mb) will track northeast from the Western Dakotas to near the Manitoba Lakes region by Friday Night. A cold front connected to this low will head east and into our local area by Friday Night. A southerly low level jet is forecast to increase to 30-40 knots along and ahead of this front and this will cause dewpoints to slowly climb into the 50s for most of our area while PWS come up from one half-one inch Today to between 1-1.50" by Friday Afternoon and Friday Night. Forcing along and ahead of the surface front as well as near a rather potent disturbance which will track E-NE out of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Friday Night will cause rain to break out across our local area, especially from late Friday Afternoon through Friday Night.

There are still some slight timing differences between the models as to when the rain will arrive. Right now it looks like the rain will reach a International Falls to Aitkin line, and points west from there between 4 PM-7 PM with rain spreading into the Iron Range, Twin Ports and I35 corridor between 7PM-10PM. Rain will then move into Northwest Wisconsin generally after 10 PM Friday Night.

Instability looks weak around our area with CAPES mostly under 250 j/kg, but isolated thunderstorms could be embedded within the rain area/s from late Friday through Friday Night.

Rainfall totals should average between 0.25-0.50" across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but locally higher amounts are possible in areas that do see convective type showers.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 60s are expected on Friday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the east at 10-20 mph on Friday with south, east or west winds Friday Night at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will be centered well to our northwest this weekend with Friday Night's cold front exiting to our east on Saturday. Some lingering showers could occur in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Morning, otherwise the period from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning should be dry. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s as cold advection with 850 mb temperatures falling to around +6 degrees C occurs on Saturday. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s. Highs on Sunday will warm into the 60s, perhaps even a few 70s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s. A new cold front looks to settle south/east across our area late this weekend which will be accompanied by a strong mid/upper level jet of 70-110 knots! Moisture looks limited with this front, but spotty showers/thunderstorms could develop from Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Evening as this front moves through.

A cool, but relatively dry weather pattern is then expected for most of next week the way it looks now with a couple opportunities for frost, but this will depend on sky conditions as well as wind speeds at night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 42 to 47. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness during the Afternoon. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Rain developing between 8-10 PM with rain at times through the Overnight. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 53. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

.Saturday... Showers possible during the Morning. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

.Sunday Night... Variable cloudiness. Showers possible early. Low 43 to 48. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 47 degrees

Tim