Sunday, September 5, 2010

9/5/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Sunday, September 5th, 2010

Low temperature report from earlier Today, Sunday, September 5th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN: 37 degrees

International Falls MN: 31 degrees

Hibbing MN: 30 degrees

Hayward WI: 32 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 30 degrees

Ely MN: 34 degrees

Orr MN: 30 degrees

Eveleth MN: 32 degrees

Bigfork MN: 32 degrees

Superior WI: 37 degrees

Siren WI: 36 degrees

Bruno MN: 35 degrees

Littlefork MN: 34 degrees

Babbitt MN: 29 degrees

Floodwood MN: 30 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 30 degrees

Upson WI: 34 degrees

Solon Springs WI: 35 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure averaging 1012-1016 mb was pushing off to our south/east Today while low pressure averaging 998-1002 mb extends from the Western Dakotas down through the Western High Plains. Mid/high level clouds were already spreading east into our area This Afternoon with generally partly-mostly sunny skies. Highs Today were generally in the 60s with another day of low humidity with Afternoon dewpoints in the 30s and 40s with PWS of 0.40-0.80" from northeast to southwest across our area. Winds Today were variable or easterly in direction under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

One large upper level trough covered Eastern-Northeast Canada Today per water vapor satellite imagery while another upper level trough pushes south/east out of Western Canada-Pacific Northwest, RUC model analysis shows an upper level jet >100 knots on the west-southwest side of that western trough Today. There is a large temperature gradient across the Western High Plains and Upper Midwest Today with 850 mb temperatures This Afternoon ranging from +24/+34 degrees C across the Western High Plains with surface temperatures in the 90s to low 100s Today! Closer to home, 850 mb temps ranged from +6/+10 degrees C with surface temps generally in the 60s.

Tonight:

Low pressure averaging 996 mb will remain over the Northern Plains/Western High Plains Tonight with high pressure off to our south/east. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our local area Tonight with a few light rain showers or sprinkles possible, mainly in Southern areas. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s, but some 30s are expected in Northeast Minnesota where some patchy frost could develop away from Lake Superior Overnight. Winds Tonight will be out of the east from 5-15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

A vigorous Autumn like storm will take aim at the Upper Midwest during this period. Low pressure at the surface (994-996 mb) will track northeast out of Eastcentral Nebraska and is expected to reach Westcentral Minnesota Monday Afternoon-Evening before pulling east-northeast toward Central Minnesota late Tomorrow Night. An equally strong upper level low/vort will head E-NE out of the Dakotas and will move into the Upper Midwest Monday Night. This storm system will eventually become negatively tilted over the Upper Midwest by Tomorrow Night. A powerful mid level jet of 70-100 knots will surge northeast from Iowa and Southern Minnesota into Wisconsin Tomorrow Night while strong lift associated with that jet, the surface/upper level lows and the upper level trough will lead to a growing area of rain which could be heavy at times across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday Afternoon into Monday Night. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected during that time period, mainly in Southern parts of our area. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night in the 40s and 50s.

Winds will also be an issue during this period with east winds increasing to 10-25 mph on Monday and east, south or west winds Monday Night at 10-25 mph. Gusts to 30 mph will likely occur both Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Note: E/NE winds could become even stronger near Lake Superior Monday and Monday Night with sustained wind speeds from 15-30 mph with gusts possibly reaching 40 mph! *Gale Watch* have been issued from Monday Evening through late Monday Night for the open waters of Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure and an upper level trough will exit off to our east for Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Areas of rain/rain showers along with gusty winds and cool temperatures will occur in our area on Tuesday with highs only in the 50s, but some Northern areas could hold in the 40s! Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s as skies become partly cloudy. Wednesday and Wednesday Night look dry at this time with high pressure moving across the region. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows mainly in the 40s.

Next chance for showers/thunderstorms will come late this week between Thursday-early Saturday as another upper level trough, surface low and associated frontal boundaries pass through the Upper Midwest.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Labor Day... Becoming windy. Increasing cloudiness. Occasional showers possible mainly after 2 PM. High 58 to 63. Wind east to northeast increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible. Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday Night... Windy with rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible through Midnight. Low 47 to 52. Wind east at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Wind decreasing to 10 to 20 mph late and becoming variable. Chance of rain 100%.

.Tuesday... Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%. West wind could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 48 degrees

Tim