Friday, September 3, 2010

9/3/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:08 PM CDT, Friday, September 3rd, 2010

Rainfall report from Thursday, September 2nd, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN: 0.20"

International Falls MN: 0.37"

Brainerd MN: 0.16"

Grand Marais MN: 0.32"

Ashland WI: 0.29"

Hayward WI: 0.26"

Silver Bay MN: 0.29"

Grand Marais MN: 0.47"

Ely MN: 0.43"

Orr MN: 0.42"

Eveleth MN: 0.31"

Grand Rapids MN: 0.22"

Moose Lake MN: 0.24"

8 miles South of Bigfork MN: 0.48"

Cass Lake MN: 0.52"

Northome MN: 0.36"

Embarrass MN: 1.27"

Kabetogama MN: 0.79"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.86"

Butternut WI: 0.46"

Gile WI: 0.90"

Local Storm Report from Thursday and Friday, September 2nd-3rd, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*4:15 PM CDT 9/2/10: Thunderstorm Wind Gust. 45 mph. East Gull Lake MN (Cass County)

*4:28 PM CDT 9/2/10: 0.25" diameter hail. Merriefield MN (Crow Wing County)

*5:17 PM CDT 9/2/10: 0.25" diameter hail. 10 miles West of Palisade MN (Aitkin County)

*5:18 PM CDT 9/2/10: 0.50" diameter hail. 2 miles East of Buhl MN (St. Louis County)

*5:37 PM CDT 9/2/10: 0.75" diameter hail. 3 miles South of McGregor MN (Aitkin County)

*5:41 PM CDT 9/2/10: 0.25" diameter hail. Floodwood MN (St. Louis County)

*6:01 PM CDT 9/2/10: 0.25" diameter hail. Kelsey MN (St. Louis County)

*6:07 PM CDT 9/2/10: 0.75" diameter hail. Sandstone MN (Pine County)

*7:20 PM CDT 9/2/10: Thunderstorm Wind Gust. 50 mph. Spooner WI (Washburn County) Small branches down on some roads in Spooner.

*2:50 PM CDT 9/3/10: Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Gile WI (Iron County) Power out in parts of Gile due do downed trees on powerlines.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Strong low pressure (990 mb) was centered over Northeast Lake Superior This Afternoon with high pressure of 1024 mb centered over the Western High Plains. A tight pressure gradient between the low to our east and high to our west-southwest resulted in a gusty northwesterly wind around our area Today with wind speeds from 10-25 mph and gusts from 25-40 mph! Mostly cloudy skies with some scattered showers also occurred over parts of our area Today on the backside of this low pressure system. Highs Today were in the 55-60 degree range while parts of the Arrowhead were only in the middle to upper 40s!

Note: This deep low pressure system brought excessive amounts of rain to areas of Southern Ontario Province Canada late last night and Today along with powerful north winds from 30-55 mph with temperatures only in the 40-45 degree range with wind chills in the 30s Today just N/NE of Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A potent upper level low (5460 meters) was centered over Northern Lake Superior late Today per RUC model analysis with strong 90-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring across the Central-Northern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/and Eastern parts of Canada Today. A N/NW 500 mb flow was in place Today over the Upper Midwest on the backside of this strong Autumn type storm.

Tonight:

Deep low pressure at the surface and aloft will move into Eastern Canada with high pressure remaining well to our west-southwest. Mostly cloudy-partly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with scattered rain showers coming to an end This Evening, but some rain could linger most of the night along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin due to a favorable set-up for lake effect precipitation thanks to low 850 mb temperatures of zero/+4 degrees C across the local area Tonight, most of this lake effect rain should remain east of Douglas County Wisconsin...Affecting the Counties of Bayfield, Ashland and Iron. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s, but some 30s are possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts from 25-40 mph mainly This Evening.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure will be centered over Eastern Canada with high pressure covering the Northern-Central Plains. Partly-mostly sunny skies can be expected on Saturday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Mostly clear skies with lows in the 30s and 40s are on tap Tomorrow Night. There could be some patchy frost over portions of Northcentral Minnesota Saturday Night. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-25 mph on Saturday and under 15 mph Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Sunday should remain dry across our area with high temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees. High pressure will remain in control of the Upper Midwest's weather with this high shifting off to our east by Sunday Night with south/east winds developing on the backside of this high and out ahead of the next low pressure system which will move into the Western High Plains late this weekend. Low temperatures Sunday Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Low pressure will become quite vigorous early next week as it moves north/east from the Western High Plains to the Upper Midwest. This system will have some, but not much moisture to work with as PWS will generally be around 1.00" with dewpoints around 50 degrees or so. It will be a dynamic system, however, and that combined with the modest amounts of moisture in place should be enough to generate areas of rain in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday (Labor Day) into early Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms could also develop especially near the warm front in far Southern parts of our area Monday and Monday Night. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for Monday with lows Monday Night in the 40s and 50s. Note: It does appear that a rather strong east wind will develop near Lake Superior Monday and Monday Night, wind gusts may exceed 25 mph during that time.

Looks like another potential storm will take aim at our area sometime late next week, this one may have a larger warm sector and more moisture/instability to work with...Should this occur, then we may be dealing with more of a thunderstorm/possible severe weather set-up versus a stratiform type rain event.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Spotty showers early. Low 40 to 45. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph This Evening.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45. Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 63 to 68.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Labor Day... Showers developing. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday Night... Occasional showers. Mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday... Showers possible mainly early. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.

Normal High Temperature Today 69 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 49 degrees

Tim