Thursday, September 23, 2010

9/23/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:37 PM CDT, Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

...1 IN 25 YEAR FLOOD FOR SOME COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

A serious situation has developed from Southcentral Minnesota through Central Wisconsin as wave after wave of heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms developed along and north of a warm front from Thursday Evening through Today...  Here are some of the storm reports via the weather channel and local storm spotters and media reports from the affected areas...

*Roads closed in/out of Arcadia, Wisconsin
*Owatonna, Truman, Minnesota and Arcadia, Wisconsin have been hit the worst, so far.
*Pulaski, Wisconsin.  Water over hood of car, foundations of homes.
*Mandatory evacuation in Arcadia, Wisconsin due to flooding.
*Pine Island, Minnesota...Volunteers needed to help sandbag.
*Northbound Highway 52 between County Road 11 and Highway 60 in Pine Island, Minnesota could be closed for up to one week per MNDOT report due to flooding.
*Wood county Wisconsin...Emergency management says no unnecessary travel.  Many roads closed.
*Reports of gas and electricity shut off to avoid fires.  Half the strees are flooded in Truman, Minnesota.  Sewage backups in Mapleton and Amboy, Minnesota.
*Numerous roads washed out in Trempealeau county, Wisconsin.  Wisconsin Governer Doyle issues a State Of Emergency for the county.
*Minneapolis/St. Paul...Near record moisture in the air for September.
*Chippewa River at Eau Claire, Wisconsin could flood Downtown and some homes this weekend.  Highest water level since 1993.
*Major route between Minneapolis/St. Paul and Rochester, Minnesota...US 52 is shut down between Zumbrota and Pine Island, Minnesota.

Here are some rainfall totals from Southcentral Minnesota...These totals are from last night through early Today...Additional rain is falling in these areas Today...

Springfield, MN (Brown County)  4.00"
St. James, MN (Watonwan County)  6.00"
Amboy, MN (Blue Earth County)  10.50"...Serious flooding on the Minnesota River
3 miles south of Claremont, MN (Dodge County)  6.10"
Northfield, MN (Rice County)  5.20"
Cannon Falls, MN (Goodhue County)  4.85"
Red Wing, MN (Goodhue County)  2.73"
Zumbro Falls, MN (Wabasha County)  6.37"
Rochester, MN (Olmsted County)  4.20-4.55"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Needless to say most of the forecast models bombed on this particular storm with most of them way too high on how much rain they were predicting especially from the Twin Ports, west and north.  Low pressure of 997 mb and still deepening was moving into Southwest Minnesota as of 3 PM with a strong warm front stretching from Southcentral Minnesota to Central Wisconsin with a trough centered over Eastern North Dakota.  Widespread rain has been falling most of the day in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with the steadier rain finally making it to the Twin Ports early This Afternoon...Steady rain also fell most of Today from the Brainerd Lakes region east through Aitkin County Minnesota.  North of these areas, showers have been much more scattered from Hibbing and Ely into the Arrowhead and back to International Falls.  High temperatures Today were mainly in the 50s, but 60s were common from Siren and Hayward east to Park Falls and Phillips.  Winds Today were out of the east at 10-20 mph, but gusts from 25-40 mph have occurred near Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong upper level low/upper trough was progressing E/NE across the Northern Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a plume of deep tropical moisture (PWS of 1.50-2.20") in place ahead of this storm from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Low pressure (993-995 mb) will track from near the Buffalo Ridge of Southwest Minnesota to Western Upper Michigan by daybreak.  Widespread rain, locally heavy at times will continue This Evening over all of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with rain becoming more scattered and possibly ending all together in these areas by Midnight if not sooner as a dry slot advances northeast out of Southwestern Minnesota.  The deformation band of rain which has been hitting Northwest Minnesota and North Dakota Today will shift E/NE and move into Northcentral Minnesota by mid-Evening and will continue through the Overnight hours.  Otherwise for Tonight, mostly cloudy skies will persist along with areas of drizzle and fog especially in Northwest Wisconsin, west to the Twin Ports and also including Eastern Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the east, south or north at 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph continuing This Evening near Lake Superior where *Gale Warnings* remain in effect through Midnight CDT Tonight.

Note:  *FLOOD WATCH* continues through late Tonight for Pine County Minnesota and for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in Wisconsin.  Some cities included in the watch are:  Hinckley MN...Pine City MN...Superior WI...Solon Springs WI...  Port Wing WI...Bayfield WI...Cable WI...Ashland WI...Butternut WI...Hurley WI...Mercer WI...Danbury WI...Grantsburg WI...Minong WI...Shell Lake WI...Hayward WI...Exeland WI...Park Falls WI...Phillips WI...and Ogema WI.

Friday and Friday Night:

Deep low pressure averaging 992 mb will reach Central-Eastern Lake Superior on Friday before moving into Eastern Canada by Friday Evening.  Rain and areas of drizzle will persist Friday Morning in Northern Minnesota with patchy drizzle or light rain showers affecting Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The threat for precipitation should decrease from west to east by Friday Afternoon with dry conditions moving in by Friday Night.  Mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 40s and 50s are forecast Tomorrow with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  North winds at 10-20 mph are expected Tomorrow with higher gusts...Winds Tomorrow Night will be variable or west/northwest under 20 mph.

Note:  Total rainfall amounts by Friday Afternoon should average between 0.50-1.00" through most of our local area with heavier amounts of 1-2" possible in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level low will drop S/SE out of the Northern Plains on Saturday with high pressure off to our north.  Cold air aloft combined with the approaching of the 500 mb low could result in the development of some showers on Saturday, especially in Western-Southern parts of our local area.  The weather from Saturday Night into Sunday Night looks dry at this point as the upper low pushes S/SE of the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be mainly in the 50s on Saturday with 50s and 60s in store for Sunday.  Lows in the 30s and 40s are forecast for both Saturday and Sunday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*GALE WARNING* IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 AM CDT TONIGHT FOR THE TWIN PORTS HARBOR.

.Tonight...  Windy, especially This Evening.  Rain tapering off to occasional light rain and drizzle This Evening.  Patchy fog.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Wind decreasing to 10 to 20 mph late and becoming north.

.Friday...  Breezy.  Areas of light rain or drizzle possible, mainly during the Morning.  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.  Wind north at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 57 to 62.

.Sunday Night...  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday...  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63.

Normal High Temperature Today 62 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim