Thursday, September 16, 2010

9/16/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:36 PM CDT, Thursday, September 16th, 2010

Rainfall report for Wednesday, September 15th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN: 0.22"

Brainerd MN: 0.54"

Ashland WI: 1.06"

Hayward WI: 1.40"

4 miles south of Bruno MN: 1.00"

8 miles south of Bigfork MN: 0.20"

Northome MN: 0.14"

Embarrass MN: 0.24"

Floodwood MN: 0.37"

Silver Bay MN: 0.26"

Finland MN: 0.24"

Butternut WI: 2.09"

Gile WI: 1.60"

Gurney WI: 1.55"

Saxon WI: 1.97"

Upson WI: 1.34"

4 miles west of Clam Lake WI: 1.39"

Sarona WI: 1.37"

Solon Springs WI: 0.98"

Washburn WI: 0.75"

Winter WI: 2.03"

Low temperature report for Thursday, September 16th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls MN: 30 degrees

Hibbing MN: 37 degrees

Ely MN: 32 degrees

Orr MN: 28 degrees

Bigfork MN: 32 degrees

Grand Rapids MN: 36 degrees

Cass Lake MN: 35 degrees

Littlefork MN: 31 degrees

Northome MN: 32 degrees

Embarrass MN: 28 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 30 degrees

3 miles east of Orr MN: 28 degrees

2 miles south of Tower MN: 30 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*High temperature of 48 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on September 15th, 2010 was the first time since May 13th, 2010 with the maximum temperature failing to reach 50 degrees.

The first half of September 2010 is complete. Here's how the first 15 days of the month have faired weatherwise.

Duluth, Minnesota:
Average monthly temperature: 53.4 degrees/3.8 degrees Below Normal
Just 1 day so far this month has been above 70 degrees (9/1)
Precipitation total: 2.11"/0.10" Below Normal
So far this month there have been 8 days with at least 0.01" of precipitation

International Falls, Minnesota:
Average monthly temperature: 51.0 degrees/5.0 degrees Below Normal
Precipitation total: 2.78"/1.17" Above Normal

First fall frost dates for Duluth, Minnesota. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

The first fall frost usually occurs around September 13th at the Duluth Airport with 90% of first fall frosts occurring by September 28th.

The first fall frost usually occurs around October 2nd at the Duluth Harbor with 90% of first fall frosts occurring by October 25th.

October 2010 Climate Outlook. Issued on Thursday, September 16th, 2010 by the Climate Prediction Center.

Duluth, Minnesota:

*40% chance for Above Normal Temperatures
*Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal or Normal Precipitation

October through December 2010 Climate Outlook. Issued on Thursday, September 16th, 2010 by the Climate Prediction Center.

Duluth, Minnesota:

*40% chance for Above Normal Temperatures
*Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal or Normal Precipitation

Severe weather outbreak on Wednesday, September 15th, 2010:

A total of 98 severe weather reports occurred yesterday across the Central Plains with 9 tornadoes in Southern Kansas. Far southern Minnesota even had some severe weather on Wednesday with around a dozen reports of wind/hail damage in that area of the state.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure of 1004-1006 mb has moved into Lake Erie and Ontario late Today with a high pressure ridge of 1016-1018 mb extending from the Central Plains through Eastern Minnesota to Central Ontario Province. Plenty of stratocumulus clouds were found in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota Today on the backside of the Eastern Great Lakes low, while partly to mostly sunny skies were common in Northern Minnesota, although mid/high level clouds were already moving in from the Dakotas out ahead of the next weather system that is set to impact our weather. High temperatures Today were in the middle to upper 50s with winds out of the north, south or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

The upper level pattern is very progressive and it has been that way most of the month thus far which is quite unusual for September. An unusually strong jet stream combined with a tight baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) has resulted in numerous storm systems which have affected the Upper Midwest during the first half of September. Little change is anticipated in the overall weather pattern through the next week or so.

Today's water vapor satellite imagery shows a strong, but fast moving system pushing east through the Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes/Eastern Canada late Today with a westerly 500 mb flow occurring over the Upper Midwest in wake of that system. The next system is moving E-SE across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains late Today with a strong surge of warm advection occurring ahead of that low with temperatures This Afternoon in the mid 70s to mid 80s from Central South Dakota through the Western High Plains with 850 mb temperatures per RUC model analysis ranging from +3 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to +15/+25 degrees C from the Central Dakotas back through the Rockies.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. High pressure ridge will settle south/east of our area This Evening with a southwesterly 30-40 knot low level jet developing on the back side of this ridge and out ahead of a cold front which was over Northwest North Dakota late Today. That boundary will move east and should reach Northcentral Minnesota Overnight. Warm and moist advection will be on the increase across our area Tonight as a southerly flow develops. PWS which were around 1/2" This Afternoon will climb to around 1.00" Overnight with 850 mb temperatures increasing to between +4/+10 degrees C. Scattered showers will develop by mid to late Evening in Western areas and will move east through Northern-Eastern Minnesota Overnight and will reach Northwestern Wisconsin mainly after 2 AM. Rainfall totals for Tonight should remain under one quarter of an inch. There will be some weak elevated instability pushing E-NE out of the Northern Plains Tonight as this cold front moves through, and this could be enough to generate an isolated thunderstorm or two during the Overnight hours. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 40s with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

A cold front will exit Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before Noon Friday with high pressure centered well to our west-northwest while low pressure at the surface and aloft pass through Northern Manitoba Province. Scattered showers are possible Friday Morning in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota, otherwise the rest of Friday looks dry with partly-mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 50s and 60s. Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s to lower 40s, but some 20s are possible in Northern Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow Night with patchy frost possible late. Winds during this period will be out of the west at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Saturday and Sunday look mainly dry for our local area as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains with low pressure well to our north. High temperatures will be mainly in the 50s, but some spots in the north may hold in the 40s especially on Saturday. Low temperatures Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with possible frost/hard freeze. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Two low pressure systems look to affect the Upper Midwest's weather for next week as an active pattern continues. One system is due for next Monday/Tuesday, the other one sometime the middle or end of next week. Each system will be capable of producing rain and perhaps some thunderstorms as well.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. Scattered showers possible Overnight. Low 42 to 47. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming south to southeast. Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday... A few showers possible early, otherwise partly sunny. High 60 to 65. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.

.Monday... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 64 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 45 degrees

Tim