Wednesday, September 1, 2010

9/1/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:14 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

RECORD EVENT:

*Record high minimum temperature at Duluth, Minnesota on August 30th, 2010* Low temperature on August 30th was 73 degrees which broke the previous record warm low temperature of 72 degrees set in 1932! The 73 degree low temperature on August 30th was also the 9th warmest record minimum temperature of any day at Duluth, Minnesota.

Rainfall report from Monday Night and Tuesday, August 30th-31st, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN: 0.17"

International Falls MN: 0.32"

Brainerd MN: 0.73"

Hibbing MN: 0.22"

Orr MN: 0.26"

Crane Lake MN: 0.32"

Grand Rapids MN: 0.21"

Aitkin MN: 0.34"

Moose Lake MN: 0.21"

Hinckley MN: 0.40"

Cloquet MN: 0.33"

McGregor MN: 0.29"

Northome MN: 0.77"

Kabetogama MN: 0.48"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.30"

*Gale Watch* has been issued for the open waters of Lake Superior from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon. Wave heights from 10-17 feet are possible over the open waters of Lake Superior as west winds increase from Friday into Saturday.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The unseasonably warm and muggy weather which has been over our area for the past few days has been replaced by a more typical airmass for late Summer. High pressure averaging 1014 mb was centered near Duluth Minnesota late Today with north, east or south winds of 20 mph or less along with partly cloudy-sunny skies and much lower humidity levels as dewpoints were only in the 40s and 50s Today while high temperatures topped out in the 70s.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest flow aloft continued Today over the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis with a vigorous disturbance heading E/NE out of the Northern Rockies while another one digs S-SE out of Southern Alberta Province Canada per water vapor satellite imagery, a 100-120 knot upper level jet was found on the west-southwest side of these systems Today per RUC model analysis. Also of note is Hurricane Earl (Category 3 storm) which is heading NW toward the Western Atlantic with Tuesday's cold front which moved through the Upper Midwest now stalling out from the Central Great Lakes to the Southern Plains in response to Hurricane Earl.

Tonight:

Look for increasing clouds across our area Tonight as high pressure pushes off to our east while broad low pressure approaches the Upper Midwest via the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains. Lift associated with this low along with the upper level trough will cause rain to break out in Western-Southern parts of our area Tonight with movement of the rain toward the northeast. The majority of the rain for Tonight is expected to fall along and west of a line from International Falls to Pine City Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with south or east winds at 5-15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Double barrel low pressure system with one moving E-NE out of Northwest Minnesota while another one heads NE into Northern Wisconsin combined with a potent upper level trough moving into the Upper Midwest will result in occasional rain and rain showers across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Temperatures aloft will become quite chilly by Thursday Afternoon and this combined with CAPES around 750 j/kg and Lifted Indices decreasing to around -2 degrees C may result in the development of a few thunderstorms mainly in Western-Southern areas with a risk for some small hail and gusty winds, this threat would increase if skies become partially sunny for a few hours on Thursday. High temperatures Tomorrow will be mainly in the 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. South, east or west winds on Thursday will become westerly Thursday Night. Low pressure by Thursday Night is expected to deepen to around 995 mb which will result in some strong winds developing in our area on the back side of the low, wind speeds from 10-20 mph on Thursday will increase to 15-35 mph Thursday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure around 992 mb will be centered near the Northern portion of Lake Superior on Friday before it moves into Northeastern Canada this weekend. A vigorous upper level trough will cover the Upper Midwest Friday and Saturday before it exits to our east on Sunday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to between +2/+6 degrees C by late Friday and Saturday. Chilly temperatures and gusty northwest or west winds will be found in our area on Friday with sustained wind speeds from 15-30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph! High temperatures on Friday will only be in the 50s with a few 60s possible in Southern areas. Lows Friday Night will be mainly in the 40s. Some wrap around showers will likely continue on Friday in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before dry weather moves in from Friday Night through Sunday. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s. Note: There is a threat for some patchy frost Saturday Night over parts of Northcentral Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Increasing cloudiness. Showers possible especially after 4 AM. Low 53 to 58. Wind becoming east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Rain during the Morning with showers at times during the Afternoon. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming west by late Afternoon. Chance of rain 100% in the Morning and 60% during the Afternoon.

.Thursday Night... Windy with showers at times. Mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Friday... Windy. Showers possible under mostly cloudy skies. High 58 to 63. West to northwest wind could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Saturday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 63 to 68.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim