Monday, August 9, 2010

8/9/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Monday, August 9th, 2010

Note: The Duluth Airport was just 4 degrees shy of tying Today's record high temperature of 92 degrees which was set in 1958.

From extreme heat to outbreaks of severe weather and flooding rains, the Summer of 2010 has been a memorable one, and it's not over yet.

Updated information regarding the tornadoes that hit Western Minnesota on Saturday, August 7th, 2010. Source: National Weather Service Grand Forks North Dakota and Chanhassen Minnesota.

*EF4 Tornado in Wilkin County Minnesota. The tornado touched down roughly 10 miles South of Wahpeton North Dakota, near Tyler around 6:25 PM CDT on Saturday, August 7th, 2010. The tornado then traveled Northeast about 5 miles and ended roughly 7 miles South-Southeast of Breckenridge Minnesota, or about 2 miles Southwest of Doran by 6:47 PM CDT.

*Maximum winds with this EF4 tornado was 170-175 mph. Path Length: 5 miles. Maximum Width: 600 yards.

*EF1 Tornado in Grant County and Douglas County Minnesota. Total Path Length: Around 19 miles. Approximately 3 and 1/2 miles in Douglas County Minnesota. Estimated wind speeds: 85-95 mph. The track of the tornado was from about 1 mile North of Wendell to near Evansville Minnesota. Start time: 7:40 PM CDT. End time: 8:15 PM CDT.

Weather Tidbits:

*Record high temperature tied in the Twin Cities on Sunday, August 8th, 2010. The high temperature reached 96 degrees which tied the record for the day which was last set in 1914 and also in 1894.

*According to Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) At least 17 countries have set all-time records for heat so far in 2010, as hot as 128 degrees in Pakistan. Only 1 country has set an all-time record low (Guinea) Moscow recorded it's first ever 100 degree high on record! 5, 000 deaths have occurred due to the extreme heat in Russia.

*Based on SPC preliminary totals...Minnesota has had 103 tornadoes so far in 2010. Texas is in 2nd place at 87! Again this is just a preliminary total, with the actual number of confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota likely around 50, which is still way above normal!

*Average lightning deaths from January 1st to August 8th (2000-2009) 27.
*In 2010 there's already been 24 deaths due to lightning!
Source: TWC, Dr. Forbes.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota.

*Average Monthly Temperature (thru the 8th of August) 69.3 degrees which is 3.4 degrees Above Normal.

*We've already had as many 80 degree days (5) so far this month (Aug. 2010) then what we saw the entire month of August 2009.

*Total precipitation for the first 8 days of August: 3.00" which is 1.96" Above Normal.

*Rainfall total since June 1st, 2010: 11.97" which is 2.48" Above Normal.

*Precipitation total since January 1st, 2010: 21.12" which is 2.95" Above Normal.

*Today is the 41st day in a row with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. This ties for 3rd place with the period July 9th through August 18th, 1969. 2nd place is 43 days which was set in 1983 from July 25th through September 5th. 1st place is 46 days which was set in 1877 from July 20th through September 3rd. There is a fairly good chance that we will break the record of 46 consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.

Local Storm Reports from Sunday Evening, August 8th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*7:58 PM CDT 8/8/10: 1.75" diameter hail. 3 miles Southwest of Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) Very strong winds along with golf ball size hail.

*7:59 PM CDT 8/8/10: 2.75" diameter hail. 3 miles Southwest of Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) Lots of tree limbs down, hail estimated to Baseball size.

*9:50 PM CDT 8/8/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 miles South of Bigfork MN (Itasca County) Many large trees and large limbs down.

Here are some rainfall totals that occurred on Sunday (8/8/10) in Northern Minnesota. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: 0.54"

Hibbing MN: 0.16"

Cook MN: 0.15"

Kabetogama MN: 0.67"

Embarrass MN: 0.18"

Littlefork MN: 0.56"

Dixon Lake MN: 0.80"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.38"

Here are some rainfall totals that occurred on Saturday (8/7/10) in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 1.33"

Brainerd MN: 0.33"

Ashland WI: 0.55"

Hayward WI: 1.17"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 0.57"

Butternut WI: 2.44"

Upson WI: 0.55"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A very warm and steamy day across our local area as high pressure of 1013 mb centers itself right over Central Minnesota This Afternoon which has caused sinking air Today which has kept any isolated convection from developing Today even with a rather unstable airmass overhead which consists of CAPE values of 1000-2500 j/kg along with Lifted Indices of -2/-6 degrees C. High temperatures Today were in the upper 80s to lower 90s with the only exception to this being in Downtown Duluth where highs stayed in the middle 70s Today thanks to a light onshore wind. Dewpoints late Today were running in the 60s to lower 70s with heat indices in the 87-95 degree range. PWS This Afternoon ranged from 1.00-1.20" with 850 mb td's of +7/+13 degrees C. Winds Today were variable in direction under 15 mph. Mainly sunny skies covered our local area Today with areas of dense fog which redeveloped late last night burning off This Morning, it did take a little longer, however, for the low clouds/fog to burn off at the head of Lake Superior, but the latest 1km high resolution visible satellite imagery indicates that the low clouds have shifted N/NE away from the Southwest part of Lake Superior This Afternoon.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500 mb ridge (5880-5940 meters) covered the Upper Midwest, Central and Southern U.S Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. A southwest flow aloft was in place over the Western U.S. Today as an upper level trough sits out in that area while a W-NW 500 mb flow covered the Upper Great Lakes, Central and Eastern Canada Today on the north side of the heat dome over the Plains. Plenty of tropical moisture with dewpoints >74 degrees and PWS >1.50" continued to stream N/NE Today from the Southern and Central Plains into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

A warm and muggy night is ahead with high pressure in Central Minnesota moving slowly toward the east. A weak boundary along the Ontario/Minnesota border combined with some instability in that area could result in the development of a few showers and thunderstorms Tonight, mainly north of a Thief River Falls to Ely Minnesota line, including Koochiching and Northern St. Louis Counties in our local area. Severe weather is not expected Tonight, but some heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes could occur in the stronger storms. Lows Tonight will be in the 60s and 70s with variable winds under 15 mph. Due to the light winds and abundant moisture in place, areas of fog could develop during the night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

More warm/muggy weather during this period with highs on Tuesday in the 80s and 90s with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s. Lows Tuesday Night will be similar to Tonight with 60s and 70s expected. High pressure will pass off to our east on Tuesday with a southerly flow developing on the backside of that high. An upper level disturbance will head northeast out of the Southwest U.S. Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night and that feature combined with a weak trough/warm frontal boundary lifting north-northeast out of Southern Minnesota and a cold front heading east through the Dakotas should cause scattered showers and thunderstorms around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, especially from late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. Precipitation will likely move in from the southwest, so areas from International Falls and Hibbing down toward Ashland and Park Falls will likely be on the last areas to see some rain. The threat for severe weather looks low right now with marginal instability in place, but with all the moisture around we could see some locally heavy rainfall. Lightning will also be a threat from any thunderstorm that does develop late Tomorrow or Tomorrow Night.

Note: A 25-35 knot S-SE low level jet is expected to form in Central-Eastern Minnesota sometime Tomorrow Afternoon or Tomorrow Evening and if this does happen, then the potential for heavy rainfall would increase even further.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level disturbance combined with a cold front will move east through our area on Wednesday, additional scattered showers or thunderstorms with a threat for locally heavy rainfall will persist on Wednesday before things dry out Wednesday Night as this system exits to our east. At this time it looks like Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast and far Eastern Minnesota have the best chance at seeing some rain on Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s on Wednesday with lows in the 50s and 60s. Thursday's high temperatures will be mainly in the 80s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Thursday Night generally in the 60s. A stronger cold front and a more organized upper level trough is expected to pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from late Thursday into Saturday. This system will bring more shower/thunderstorm chances to our local area and possibly a threat for severe weather depending on the timing of this system. A pattern change is then expected late this weekend into at least early next week as cooler/drier air pushes south out of Central Canada.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Warm and humid. Mostly clear with areas of fog developing. Low 65 to 70. Wind variable at 5-15 mph.

.Tuesday... Warm and humid. Areas of fog especially early. Partly to mostly sunny. High 83 to 88 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Humid. Showers or thunderstorms developing especially by mid or late Evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Areas of fog. Mostly cloudy. Low 63 to 68. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday... Humid. Occasional showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. High 71 to 76. Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 76 to 81. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 76 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim