Monday, August 16, 2010

8/16/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:21 PM CDT, Monday, August 16th, 2010

Local Storm Reports from Friday, August 13th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*2:27 PM CDT 8/13/10: 1.00" diameter hail. 4 miles Southeast of Pine City MN (Pine County) Hail was reported along Highway 70, east of Rock Creek Minnesota.

*3:05 PM CDT 8/13/10: Flash Flood. 4 miles Southeast of Pine City MN (Pine County) Water over Highway 70, about 3 miles East of Interstate 35. Also, water flowing over some rural roads in Southern Pine County (Rock Creek area)

*3:08 PM CDT 8/13/10: 1.50" of rain, fell in 20-30 minutes. 4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County)

*4:03 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 6 miles Southwest of Pine City MN (Pine County) Trees down in the Southwest part of Pine City.

*4:07 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 1 mile West of Pine City MN (Pine County) Power lines downed.

*4:15 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Hinckley MN (Pine County) Power lines blown down.

*4:50 PM CDT 8/13/10: Flash Flood. 2 miles Southwest of Hinckley MN (Pine County) 3.00" of rain in an hour. Observer reported a lot of standing water even in grassy areas. Ditches full.

*5:39 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 miles East of Benoit WI (Bayfield County) Lots of branches down varying in size.

*5:42 PM CDT 8/13/10: 0.88" diameter hail. 4 miles South of Ashland WI (Ashland County) Strong winds as well.

*6:00 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 5 miles South of Hayward WI (Sawyer County) Trees blown down, south side of city...Particularly in the Northwoods Beach area, south of Hayward.

*6:00 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Odanah WI (Ashland County) Trees blown down onto some roads in the Odanah area.

*6:25 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Namekagon WI (Bayfield County) Tree limbs blown off trees.

*7:00 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 4 miles West-Northwest of Park Falls WI (Price County) Trees blew down and took out some power lines near Butternut Lake.

*7:27 PM CDT 8/13/10: 5.35" of rain. 5 miles North of Webster WI (Burnett County) Rainfall total was since 9:30 PM CDT Thursday, August 12th, 2010.

*7:30 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 3 miles North of Park Falls WI (Price County) Price County Sheriff reports several trees and a power line down.

*8:15 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Mercer WI (Iron County) Iron County Sheriff reports many trees and power lines down.

*8:15 PM CDT 8/13/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Gile WI (Iron County) Iron County Sheriff reports numerous trees and power lines in in Oma.

Weather Tibits:

*46 consecutive days in a row with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees which tied the record from July 20th through September 3rd, 1877! The high temperature on Sunday, August 15th, 2010 failed to reach 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (69 degrees) which ended our streak of high temps of at least 70 degrees at 46 straight days.

*Average Monthly Temperature through 8/15/10 at Duluth, Minnesota: 70.3 degrees
Departure: 4.9 degrees Above Normal.

*Precipitation total through the 15th of August, 2010: 4.51"
Departure: 2.55" Above Normal.

August 2010 has featured 9 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, MN and 5 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.

Tornado reports from Friday, August 13th, 2010 from far Southern-far Southeastern Minnesota. Source: Storm Prediction Center.

*3:22 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 1 mile West of Hayfield MN (Dodge County)

*3:29 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 4 miles Northeast of Hayfield MN (Dodge County)

*3:55 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 6 miles South of Kasson MN (Dodge County)

*4:40 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 4 miles Southwest of Rochester MN (Olmsted County)

*5:35 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. 4 miles South-Southwest of Mankato MN (Blue Earth County)

*5:40 PM CDT 8/13/10: Tornado. Rock Dell MN (Olmsted County)

Weather History:

On this date in 1988... A record high temperature of 91 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Second day in a row with a Fall like weather pattern as deep low pressure (998 mb) remains over Northern Ontario Province while a tight pressure gradient between that low and a ridge of high pressure to our west continued to produce gusty northwest winds at 15-30 mph across our area Today. Note: Gale Warnings continued Today for portions of Lake Superior for the third day in a row, wave heights as large as 11 feet over some parts of Lake Superior Today, east of the Western shores. High temperatures were generally in the low 60s in the north with low 70s in Southern areas Today with partly-mostly sunny skies.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Today as a large upper level low/upper level trough (5520-5580 meters) was in place across Central-Northern-Eastern Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure moving into Western Minnesota while deep low pressure remains well to our northeast. A few light showers or sprinkles could fall This Evening, mainly north of the Iron Range. Temperatures will cool into the 40s and lower 50s Tonight with some 30s in the typical cold spots. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, especially This Evening.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure will shift off to our south-east during this period with winds turning to the south on the backside of that high. A gradual increase in moisture will start to take place across our area especially by Tuesday Night as a southwest low level jet increases to around 30 knots, that combined with some warm advection spreading in from the Northern Plains could cause a few showers or thunderstorms Tuesday Night, mainly across Northern Minnesota. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds will become southwest at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front is expected to sink south-southeast through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Dewpoints climbing into the 50s/60s with PWS around an inch and 850 mb td's increasing to around +12 degrees C, combined with CAPES around 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices falling to around -2 degrees C should be enough to generate some scattered showers or thunderstorms in our local area for Wednesday and Wednesday Night. 30-40 knots of SHEAR, around 40 knots of W/NW mid level flow and a southwest wind at 850 mb are forecast to be in place which could lead to a few severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon or Wednesday Evening, mainly along and south of a line from Backus Minnesota to Ashland Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threats the way it looks now. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 70s with 60s northwest-north of the Iron Range. Lows Wednesday Night will range from the 40s in Northern Minnesota to the 50s and 60s elsewhere. The cold front passing across our area on Wednesday is forecast to stall out somewhere in Southern or Central Minnesota for Thursday and Friday as a low pressure disturbance rides E/NE along that boundary later this week. We could see some additional showers and perhaps some thunderstorms at times across portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Friday depending on where this boundary sets up...If it's farther north, then we could be dealing with a threat for heavy rainfall and possibly some severe weather later this week. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy especially This Evening. Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph, decreasing to 10 to 20 mph late.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Scattered showers or thunderstorms developing, especially during the Afternoon. Variable cloudiness. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Scattered showers or thunderstorms, mainly during the Evening. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 67 to 72. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 54 degrees

Tim