Wednesday, July 7, 2010

7/7/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

...RECORD WARM START TO JULY 2010 AT DULUTH, MINNESOTA...

*The average temperature at Duluth, MN through July 6th, 2010 was 72.2 degrees which was 8.2 degrees Above Normal. This is the 2nd warmest start to a July since weather records began at Duluth way back in 1874! The warmest start to a July (1st-6th) was back in 1881 with an average temperature of 74.2 degrees.

Weather tidbits:

*Every day so far this month has featured an above normal high temperature at Duluth, MN.

*5 out of 7 days in July has featured a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, MN. Note: It appears that we will fail to reach the 80 degree mark Today, but we are close as of 4 PM.

*SECOND WETTEST START TO A JULY AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN... From July 1st through the 5th, 6.18" of rain fell at International Falls, MN making it the wettest 5 consecutive days ever recorded since 1897! The previous record occurred back on August 26th through the 31st, 1942 with 6.02" of rain. Currently, this is the 11th wettest July on record at International Falls, MN...The record wettest July is 9.52" which was set in 1966!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Mild temperatures continued Today with somewhat higher humidity compared to 24 hours ago. High temperatures Today were generally in the 70s, but there were a few pockets of 80s over portions of Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints This Afternoon were running in the 50s and 60s with PWS of 1.00-1.40", 850 mb td's ranged from +8/+15 degrees C from northwest to southeast across our local area. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies covered Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with scattered showers affecting parts of Northcentral Minnesota while heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms were hitting parts of Price County in Northwest Wisconsin, including the towns of Phillips and Prentice. Hourly rainfall rates per Duluth doppler radar ranged from 0.25"-0.75" over parts of Central-Southern Price County Wisconsin This Afternoon. Winds Today were variable under 15 mph. Surface map late This Afternoon featured a cold front extending from Western Upper Michigan through Western Wisconsin to Southern Minnesota, while a trough heads southeast out of Northwest North Dakota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest flow aloft continued over the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level trough heading east out of the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. A heat-wave continued out East Today as a (594) meter upper level high pressure ridge continued to cover portions of the Ohio Valley, Eastern Great Lakes, and Eastern U.S. per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Scattered showers or thunderstorms will continue to be a threat Tonight in Northern-Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin. The activity in Northwest Wisconsin will be caused by a cold front which will continue to move slowly toward the east. The activity in Minnesota will be in response to the upper level trough heading east from the Dakotas. The best instability This Evening (CAPES around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices around -2/-5 degrees C) will be found in Northwest Wisconsin, and this is where an isolated risk for strong thunderstorms exists This Evening with small hail and gusty winds possible. Torrential downpours will also be a threat This Evening, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin, some localized flooding could develop if thunderstorms move slowly or if thunderstorms develop and move over the same location over and over again, this threat looks greatest in Price, Southern Sawyer, and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be variable in direction under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

An upper level trough will be centered over the Upper Midwest and Central Canada during this period and this could result in a few Afternoon showers, mainly in Northern Minnesota. Partly-mostly sunny skies are forecast on Thursday with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Partly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s can be expected Thursday Night. Winds during this period will be out of the west or northwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather should continue Friday and Friday Night in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s while lows Friday Night settle into the 50s and 60s. A new area of low pressure will pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend which will bring a risk for showers or thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather. There are timing differences with the models Today concerning the system for this weekend, so changes in the forecast could occur in coming days. High temperatures on Saturday will remain in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible through Midnight. Low 56 to 61. Wind variable around 12 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 51 to 56. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 76 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 54 degrees

Tim