Tuesday, July 6, 2010

7/6/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:03 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 6th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1988, a record high temperature of 95 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

...Areas of heavy rain moved through portions of Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening...Here are some rainfall totals from these areas...

Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Sarona WI (Washburn County) 2.65"

1 mile South of Solon Springs WI (Douglas County) 2.72"

Ashland WI (Ashland County) 0.62"

Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 0.30"

Bruno MN (Pine County) 0.86"

Butternut WI (Ashland County) 0.60"

Upson WI (Iron County) 0.28"

Madeline Island WI: 0.18"

Hinckley MN (Pine County) 0.20"

Cook MN (St. Louis County) 0.10"

Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County) 0.20"

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 0.06"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Another very nice day across most of our area, although there have been a few showers tracking slowly east through parts of Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon...Generally affecting Northern Sawyer, Southern Bayfield, and Ashland Counties. CAPES in these areas around 1000 j/kg late Today with Lifted Indices down to around -3 degrees C, there is also more moisture the farther east and south you go with Afternoon dewpoints in Northwest Wisconsin in the 60s with PWS of 1.20"-1.40" with 850 mb td's of +10/+13 degrees C. A drier airmass has moved into Northern-Eastern Minnesota This Afternoon as dewpoints have fallen into the 50s to around 60 degrees while PWS ranged from 0.80"-1.10". High temperatures were in the middle 70s to middle 80s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with partly-mostly sunny skies along with west, southwest, or northwest winds under 20 mph. Surface map as of 3 PM featured a cold front across Central Wisconsin, then this front extends west as a stationary front through far Southern Minnesota back into Southern South Dakota where it meets up with an area of low pressure averaging 1012 mb which was centered along the Southern South Dakota-Northern Nebraska state line.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest flow aloft continued once again Today over the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis. A 500 mb trough was digging slowly south-east across Alberta and Saskatchewan Province Canada, south through the Northern Rockies. A plume of deep tropical moisture was still evident Today flowing from Texas north through portions of the Central Plains into parts of the Central-Northern Great Lakes...There seems to be a slight west-northwest shift in this moisture plume This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. Meanwhile off to our east, a massive hot dome of upper level high pressure (594 meters) continues to bake the Southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Eastern U.S. with some serious heat Today.

Tonight:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s, winds will be out of the north, west, or east under 15 mph. A stationary front down in Southern Minnesota combined with an area of low pressure over Southern South Dakota will combine with the upper level trough pushing into the Northern Plains to cause scattered showers or thunderstorms Tonight across portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Locally, it appears that the best chances for scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms will be in Western areas Tonight, mainly from International Falls toward McGrath and on to the west through Brainerd, Walker, Grand Rapids, and Northome.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

An area of low pressure will pass through Southern Minnesota Wednesday into early Wednesday Evening before tracking into Central-Northern Wisconsin late Wednesday Night. An upper level trough will also head east into the Upper Midwest through this period. The atmosphere Wednesday Afternoon and Evening will become somewhat unstable with CAPES up to 1000 j/kg along with Lifted Indices of -1/-4 degrees C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible over the entire area Wednesday and Wednesday Night with a slight chance for hail and gusty winds in the stronger thunderstorm activity Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening...This threat appears greatest from Eastcentral Minnesota to the Twin Ports and through Northwestern Wisconsin. Severe chances look low at this time, but if more sunshine develops then what is expected right now, then the threat for severe weather could increase a bit. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 degrees in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with PWS of 1.10"-1.50", locally heavy downpours will also be a threat with any thunderstorm that can develop due to the humid air in place over parts of our area. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the south, east, or north under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A west-northwest flow aloft will develop over the Upper Midwest from Thursday into Friday as a 500 mb low passes by to our north-northeast. Instability showers associated with that upper low will be most widespread in Ontario Province, but a few showers could develop as far south as Northern Minnesota Thursday Afternoon. A drier, but still mild airmass will move into our area for Thursday and Friday with high temperatures both days in the 70s to lower 80s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Next best chance for showers or thunderstorms after Wednesday looks to occur sometime this weekend as a fairly vigorous system moves through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, could see some severe weather out of this storm depending on the instability, shear, and timing of the system.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Clear through mid-Evening, then skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible Overnight. Low 58 to 63. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph, becoming variable. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible especially during the Afternoon, partly sunny. High 78 to 83 but it could turn cooler at times near Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Showers still possible Overnight. Mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming north at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 51 to 56.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 78 to 83.

Normal High Temperature Today 75 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 54 degrees

Tim