Sunday, July 4, 2010

7/4/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:18 PM CDT, Sunday, July 4th, 2010

...Very heavy rain fell over portions of Northcentral, Northeast, and Eastcentral Minnesota last night and This Morning... Here are some rainfall totals from these areas. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

13 miles West-Northwest of Crane Lake MN (St. Louis County) 2.20"

15 miles Northwest of Ely MN (St. Louis County) 2.43"

Crane Lake MN (St. Louis County) 2.88"

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 2.81"

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 1.05"

Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) 1.79"

Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County) 1.63"

Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 1.59"

15 miles East of Buyck MN (St. Louis County) 5.30"

13 miles Northeast of Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County) 3.94"

Hibbing MN (St. Louis County) 1.73"

Bigfork MN (Itasca County) 2.00"

Cook MN (St. Louis County) 2.40"

Note: 0.60" of rain fell at the Duluth Airport between 8-9:30 AM CDT This Morning.

Very warm and extremely humid conditions were felt across all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday, July 3rd, 2010. Here are some high temperatures that occurred from Saturday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 88 degrees

International Falls MN: 87 degrees

Brainerd MN: 91 degrees

Hibbing MN: 90 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: 91 degrees

Two Harbors MN: 88 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 88 degrees

Orr MN: 90 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 91 degrees

Eveleth MN: 88 degrees

Bigfork MN: 88 degrees

Grand Rapids MN: 88 degrees

Pine River MN: 90 degrees

McGregor MN: 88 degrees

Ashland WI: 88 degrees

Hayward WI: 87 degrees

Superior WI: 91 degrees

Siren WI: 89 degrees

Phillips WI: 88 degrees

Littlefork MN: 88 degrees

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 90 degrees

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 95 degrees

Madeline Island WI: 89 degrees

Upson WI: 87 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A slow moving cold front continued to settle south/east through the Upper Midwest Today and as of mid-Afternoon this boundary has reached Northwestern Wisconsin pretty much in line with what the models were showing 24 hours ago. Still plenty of moisture in the atmosphere Today with Afternoon dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s with PWS ranging from 1.40"-2.00"...Highest values from Northeast-Eastern Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin. The large area of heavy rain and thunderstorms which prompted the issuance of *Flash Flood Warnings* late last night-early This Morning in portions of Northcentral-Northeast-and Eastcentral Minnesota decreased in size as it tracked through Eastern Minnesota, the Twin Ports, and Arrowhead of Minnesota This Morning. Most of the showers as of 3 PM were confined to the Southeastern part of Northwest Wisconsin, mainly affecting the Counties of Price, Iron, and Ashland. There was another area of showers and isolated thunderstorms dropping south-east through parts of Northcentral Minnesota This Afternoon, this activity was developing in a weakly unstable environment which consisted of CAPES around 500 j/kg with Lifted Indicies of -2/-4 degrees C. Some heavy downpours with hourly rainfall rates per Duluth doppler radar around one half inch have been common with this small area of rain This Afternoon which was affecting communities such as Big Falls and Bigfork Minnesota, south toward Federal Dam, Remer, and Grand Rapids. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s with winds out of the south or west-northwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest flow aloft continued Today across the Upper Midwest with a plume of deep tropical moisture (2.00-2.30" PWS) extending from Texas north through the Central Plains, Upper Midwest, and Western Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level trough was digging southeast out of Western Canada into the Pacific Northwest This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with two pockets of strong winds aloft found well to the east of this upper trough (100 knots) from Northwest Minnesota into Western Ontario Province with the other area located southwest of the upper trough near Washington state.

Tonight through Monday Night:

A cold front which has moved into Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon will settle a bit more to the south-east during this period. Deep tropical moisture will continue to be found near and out ahead of this front which will cause areas of rain to develop at times mainly around the Park Falls, Phillips, Prentice, and Mercer areas in Northwest Wisconsin. Locally heavy downpours could occur at times in these areas which could lead to some localized flooding. The rest of Northwest Wisconsin and Northern-Eastern Minnesota should be mainly dry through Tomorrow Night, although there will be a risk for showers or isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours This Evening over parts of Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota. Partly-mostly cloudy skies can be expected during this period with lows Tonight and Monday Night in the 50s and 60s with highs on Monday in the 70s and 80s. Dewpoints will be slightly lower compared to Saturday with mainly 50s and 60s on tap through Tomorrow Night, but a few areas especially in Northwest Wisconsin could hold around 70 degrees especially This Evening. Winds during this period will be out of the north, west, or southwest generally under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A few cold fronts will track east-southeast through the Upper Midwest from Tuesday into Wednesday which could result in the development of a few showers or thunderstorms especially on Tuesday. Right now it doesn't look like much of a severe threat either day, but isolated strong thunderstorms can't be ruled out especially Tuesday Afternoon-Tuesday Evening in Northeast-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Looks like will see a bit of a pattern shift take place this week with a southwest flow aloft expected into mid-week, then more of a northwest or west-northwest upper level flow later in the week, right now it looks generally dry by mid to late week, but it's possible that a disturbance or two could drop down into the Upper Midwest in this west or west-northwest upper flow.

High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows both nights in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Showers possible before 8 PM. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday... Less humid. Partly sunny. High 79 to 84. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 77 to 82. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 78 to 83.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 77 to 82.

Normal High Temperature Today 75 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 53 degrees

Tim